Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

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Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by palindromeofbolton » Sun May 21, 2017 4:36 pm

There won't be much ante-post action until the Huddersfield/Reading game is done and dusted, but I couldn't resist a wee look to see what's doing so far.

Skybet and Hills have early outright markets up, albeit without the relegated Prem teams. Sky are skin-flinting it with the second tier of teams, lumping Bolton in at 50/1 with Preston, Millwall and Ipswich, while Burton and Barnsley are joint 80/1 outsiders.

Hills have Burton bringing up the rear at 150/1, while Bolton are "next worse" with Barnsley at 100/1.

Only Sky currently has a book on promotion and relegation: they make Bolton a 14/1 shot to be promoted, and 3/1 to be relegated (same price as Ipswich and Millwall, while Barnsley and Burton are 15/8 favourites).

https//www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship

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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by boltonboris » Mon May 22, 2017 10:00 am

throwawayboltonian wrote:
Mon May 22, 2017 9:11 am
Never really held much sway by way of bookies' odds - they're set against people making the bets rather than the actual chances of a team doing X. Rovers were ~6/1 to go down at the start of this (or should I say last) season IIRC.

It's still way too early to tell who'll be where, but I'd be delighted with a comfortable mid table finish. In reality I think we'll be scrapping and scraping our way to survival.
They've not been far wrong with us the last few seasons...

Had us joint 2nd fvourites for promotion last year (Sheff Yonited as fave's_) and favourites for the drop the year before
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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by palindromeofbolton » Wed May 30, 2018 9:06 am

With the 24 runners and riders for 2018/19 now declared, here's how the bookies view our chances next season:

We're a top-price 100/1 to win the league. A ridiculously short price I'm afraid - though they all seem to be this year, hinting at the tightness of the league I'd suggest (plus, the fear-factor of Leicester's 5000/1 is still alive and well). As a comparison, only Rotherham (150/1) are offered at higher odds. Two bookmakers offer bigger odds on us than they do on The Millers.

Stoke, by the way, start favourites, though there's little in price between them, Swansea, West Brom and Villa. It's Middlesbrough next, then 16/1 bar.

You can get 25/1 on us to be promoted - compared to around 16/1 at the start of last season.

We are a top-price 5/2 to be relegated, though as short as 6/4 in a place. Rotherham are top-price 2/1 for the drop, though as short as evens. Ipswich, Millwall, QPR and Reading are seen as our greatest relegation "challengers", followed only then by Blackburn and Wigan. Interestingly, Brum are already settling in for a season of snug and smug mid-table safety, in the bookies' eyes. Is this due to the Monk effect, or do they have some cash to splash?

I've sent an email to my bookmaker asking for a price on Obasi to be Top Scorer. Will update.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/en ... relegation

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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by irie Cee Bee » Wed May 30, 2018 2:40 pm

I normally dismiss the odds at the beginning of the season for Bolton, only to have egg in my face when they prove to be almost spot on. They clearly know something that I don't at the start.

Are these odds for next season suggesting that they know we have no money and will continue to seek out out of contract players with injury records who clubs do not want ? I will dismiss them again and this time, hope I am vindicated.

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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by palindromeofbolton » Wed May 30, 2018 5:13 pm

irie Cee Bee wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 2:40 pm
Are these odds for next season suggesting that they know we have no money and will continue to seek out out of contract players with injury records who clubs do not want ?
I'd say so. Obviously the majority of books will know there's talk of investment but, at these odds, either don't see it happening, or happening in time to make in impact. If you're a backer who reckons the investment will indeed arrive, and will have a timely and positive enough effect to p*ss all over their prediction we'll finish 23rd, then the promotion price arguably becomes value.

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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:04 pm

Leeds have sacked Paul Heckingbottom after four months. So that's still a madhouse, then.

Wonder if Barnsley, managerless since about 15 minutes after Wilbraham's goal, would have him back. They've been talking to Grant McCann and Gareth Ainsworth. Not that it matters much to us....

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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by bristol_Wanderer3 » Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:44 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:04 pm
Leeds have sacked Paul Heckingbottom after four months. So that's still a madhouse, then.

Wonder if Barnsley, managerless since about 15 minutes after Wilbraham's goal, would have him back. They've been talking to Grant McCann and Gareth Ainsworth. Not that it matters much to us....
Talk about them going from Bielsa, who apparently has inspired the likes of Pocchetino and Guardiola, but had a nightmare with Lille last season.

And Lampard did get the Derby job. He might take to management well and be a success, but seems a big ask in a league as tough and relentless as this, at a club about to embark on a period of austerity, with high expectations, and with the last manager in a position to vulture over their best players having taken over at parachute payment minted Stoke.

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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:22 pm

On another thread, Bijou Bob wrote:
Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:48 pm
I can't see 3 teams weaker than us in this season's Championship
It's a struggle (and a worry), but I have a feeling that Sunderland won't be the last "big" team to somewhat surprisingly tumble. Clubs falling out of the arse-end of parachute payments (or speculation therafter) might find they have unbalanced squads with unhappy players - both the expensive misfits and the comparatively underpaid squaddies.

Wouldn't surprise me to find a team like Derby, trying to cost-cut under an inexperienced manager, start badly and swan-dive from there.

Norwich are also treading water and possibly about to lose their best player Maddison; last season they only scored one goal more than Barnsley, fewer than Sunderland.

Hull are desperately shedding expensive players - Abel Fernandez is out of contract and they've made plain they're trying to sell Grosicki - so they might find themselves with a young squad.

Reading are skint and need a reboot after one season of overachieving and one of being consistently awful, which didn't improve once they got the somewhat confrontational Clement in charge. It's never a surprise when he leaves a club.

Ipswich also arguably overachieved under Mick Mac and particularly last season, statistically speaking - I think they had like fourth-most shots on goal conceded, so if Bialkowski loses form or fitness, or the defence gets even worse, they could fall. We certainly know the owner isn't gonna stump up saviour-money in January.

Then there's the teams that came down. Obviously they've got money in spades and buckets, but again it's not always the answer. They'll also lose a big slice of their best and most experienced players.

Stoke need a clearout but they might lose Shaqiri, Butland, Joe Allen, Darren Fletcher, Charlie Adam and Peter Crouch, leaving a new dressing room which can go either way.

Swansea are losing the backbone of the squad, if not the team – Angel Rangel, Ki Sung-yeung and Leon Britton have spent 33 years there between them; Tammy Abraham's loan is over, I can't imagine the Ayews hanging about, Alfie Mawson will surely leave and impending manager Graham Potter is a risk.

West Brom will probably lose Ben Foster, Jonny Evans, Craig Dawson and Gareth McAuley's 38, so they need a new defence; they'll also probably lose Gareth Barry and Jay Rodriguez.

The Championship is an unpredictable division and all these teams are a bad start away from looking at a long hard season.

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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by bristol_Wanderer3 » Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:13 pm

Interesting take that DSB. Fully agree on Norwich. They are losing £33m this season in parachute payment income, which will be more than 50% of their turnover. They are one of three clubs in this league without a benefactor. Maddison got 15 goals and 11 assists out of 48 goals. Add to that, it is likely that homegrown Josh Murphy (11 goals, 3 assists) and Premier League signings Nelson Olivera (8 goals, 1 assist) and Timm Klose (4 goals, 1 assist) will be in demand. Camerone Jerome was also sold in January. They are going to have find some really good attacking bargains (we know hard they are to find) to stay out the relegation scrap.

Three more teams I am expecting to struggle are Rotherham, Hull and Blackburn:

Rotherham - I saw their play off games, and they were really impressive. Lots of sharp, quick players when they go forward and they looked a real threat. But the step up is huge, they don't have a benefactor, and they have an inexperienced manager. Just the financial gravity in this league should mean they find it difficult.

Blackburn - Still have a lot of the squad that got relegated in 16/17. They appear to rely very heavily on Bradley Dack to create chances. Again the step up now is huge and they look a bit like us last year in that they have a lot of players who might have been average Championship players 3-4 years ago, but this league has moved on a long way since then. On top of that Venky's seem to have picked this time to attempt to impose some financial discipline.

Hull - Still in receipt of parachute payments but have owners who have thrown their toys out of the pram after not being allowed to change the name of the team and develop the stadium, and are taking as much as money out of the club as possible. Michael Dawson and Abel Hernandez have already left, and expect Grosicki to go soon. When that happens they will be very devoid of quality and experience. And the whole atmosphere around the club appears negative.

Birmingham, Sheffield Wednesday, QPR and Reading are all in FFP pain and can't buy their way to a decent team, and they were exposed as not great last season.

Derby and Villa should have easily enough quality to be nowhere near the relegation zone, but both are in cost cutting mode, where you don't get to sell the players you want to, but need to take action to reduce costs. We have seen ourselves how damaging that phase can be.

We must improve a lot just not to come 24th, but if we can make some decent signings and get ourselves into the mix there are a few teams who might not be in good shape if they come under relegation pressure. COYW :)

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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:44 pm

Frank Lampard's announced his assistant manager at Derby. It's Jody Morris, who's 39.

Now, there are some who'll say he's been doing well with Chelsea's kids. But they're an extravagantly expensively assembled bunch of the world's best young players, bought with financial gamification in mind – buy young, sell high, yes you might let a De Bruyne go but you made money on him.

And now he's going to be Lampard's sidekick. Oof, I dunno about that. You usually want your assistant manager to be the font of wisdom, the guy who's been round the block, the calm head in a crisis – especially if you've never managed before.

I mean, it's all guesswork and I might well be wrong. For a start, they'll probably get the pick of Chelsea's young talent, except the ones CFC want to be in the Premier League (eg Tammy Abraham, Kenedy, Loftus-Cheek, Zouma). But Derby looks to me like a perfect storm of playoff failure, purse tightening, losing experienced manager, hiring big name with no clue.

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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:03 pm

bristol_Wanderer3 wrote:
Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:13 pm
Blackburn - Still have a lot of the squad that got relegated in 16/17. They appear to rely very heavily on Bradley Dack to create chances. Again the step up now is huge and they look a bit like us last year in that they have a lot of players who might have been average Championship players 3-4 years ago, but this league has moved on a long way since then. On top of that Venky's seem to have picked this time to attempt to impose some financial discipline.
Swiss Ramble's done his thing on Blackburn. Season they went down, their wages were 147% of turnover.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1003 ... 43552.html

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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by bristol_Wanderer3 » Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:22 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:03 pm
bristol_Wanderer3 wrote:
Mon Jun 04, 2018 4:13 pm
Blackburn - Still have a lot of the squad that got relegated in 16/17. They appear to rely very heavily on Bradley Dack to create chances. Again the step up now is huge and they look a bit like us last year in that they have a lot of players who might have been average Championship players 3-4 years ago, but this league has moved on a long way since then. On top of that Venky's seem to have picked this time to attempt to impose some financial discipline.
Swiss Ramble's done his thing on Blackburn. Season they went down, their wages were 147% of turnover.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1003 ... 43552.html
£106m of debt, presumably to Venky's. It is interesting that Venky's bought a famous old British football club, with no experience of running one, and broadly put their trust in a super agent to manage things. Two relegations, decline, boycotts and loads of abuse ensued, although promotion last year seems to have at least brought fans and the club closer together. Fosun bought a famous old British football club, with no experience of running one, broadly put their trust in a super agent to manage things. Promoted Wolves are now being touted for a top half Premiership finish next season. The motto seems to be pick your super agent wisely :)

In other news, things at Villa may be worse than expected:

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/ ... --14748401

Keith Wyness, their CEO since 2016, has been suspended, and there is talk of unpaid tax bills and winding up orders. Assuming their owner gave Wyness responsibility for transfer dealings, then the contracts and fees they doled out in their first season after relegation alone are worthy of disciplinary action imho. Ross McCormack was 30 when he signed a 4 year deal on £45kpw for a £12m fee....

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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Jun 05, 2018 10:14 pm

bristol_Wanderer3 wrote:
Tue Jun 05, 2018 7:22 pm
In other news, things at Villa may be worse than expected:

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/ ... --14748401

Keith Wyness, their CEO since 2016, has been suspended, and there is talk of unpaid tax bills and winding up orders. Assuming their owner gave Wyness responsibility for transfer dealings, then the contracts and fees they doled out in their first season after relegation alone are worthy of disciplinary action imho. Ross McCormack was 30 when he signed a 4 year deal on £45kpw for a £12m fee....
Indeed. Iles notes reports that Trevor Birch, formerly of this parish, has been spotted in the vicinity: "Rarely means cheery news. His last job in football was the January fire sale at Wanderers."

Funnily enough, I spoke to my boss, a Villa fan, this very morning about his club, and this division, and my theory that another "big" club could spiral downwards this season. He was more concerned with Steve Bruce's failings at the time, but he reacted to this Wyness news with the popcorn emoji...

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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by Bruce Rioja » Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:12 pm

I actually fancy a cheeky £iver on Villa to go down. They appear to be in all sorts of bother. Maybe a points deduction too?

Anyone know the odds?
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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:28 pm

Bruce Rioja wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:12 pm
I actually fancy a cheeky £iver on Villa to go down. They appear to be in all sorts of bother. Maybe a points deduction too?

Anyone know the odds?
8/1 apparently, in from 25/1 a few days ago

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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by Bruce Rioja » Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:30 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:28 pm
Bruce Rioja wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:12 pm
I actually fancy a cheeky £iver on Villa to go down. They appear to be in all sorts of bother. Maybe a points deduction too?

Anyone know the odds?
8/1 apparently, in from 25/1 a few days ago
Cheers, Chap. Hmm, maybe not so tempting then now, however, very interesting.
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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by bristol_Wanderer3 » Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:54 am

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football ... a-12658260

Article mentions some of the wages Villa players are on. Jedinak £50kpw according to that!! Lansbury £40kpw!! And James Bree, who they signed from Barnsley as a 19 year old, £23kpw!!

Player agent: "I am going to be cheeky and ask for x". Kieth Wyness/Tony Xia: "That is ridiculous. Have 2x"

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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:07 pm

bristol_Wanderer3 wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:54 am
Player agent: "I am going to be cheeky and ask for x". Kieth Wyness/Tony Xia: "That is ridiculous. Have 2x"
That's literally the story (or urban myth) around Seth Johnson signing for Leeds: first (large) wage offer elicited such a startled reaction from the agent that LUFC immediately added £20kpw. True or not, it goes around, and obviously comes around again.

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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by Harry Genshaw » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:26 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:07 pm
bristol_Wanderer3 wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:54 am
Player agent: "I am going to be cheeky and ask for x". Kieth Wyness/Tony Xia: "That is ridiculous. Have 2x"
That's literally the story (or urban myth) around Seth Johnson signing for Leeds: first (large) wage offer elicited such a startled reaction from the agent that LUFC immediately added £20kpw. True or not, it goes around, and obviously comes around again.
Seth Johnson's agent made the claim on a TV prog. Prior to meeting Peter Ridsdale he told Johnson, we'll look to get a 3 year deal on 25k a week. Ridsdale's opening offer was 37k a week for 4 years! Said agent had to keep his poker face on while he asked for sometime to discuss with his client.

The same programme showed Sean Davis''s (yes that one) agent asking Middlesborough for 750k up front just to enter negotiations :shock:
"Get your feet off the furniture you Oxbridge tw*t. You're not on a feckin punt now you know"

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Re: Championship 2017/18: the bookies' view

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:03 pm

Harry Genshaw wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:26 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:07 pm
bristol_Wanderer3 wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:54 am
Player agent: "I am going to be cheeky and ask for x". Kieth Wyness/Tony Xia: "That is ridiculous. Have 2x"
That's literally the story (or urban myth) around Seth Johnson signing for Leeds: first (large) wage offer elicited such a startled reaction from the agent that LUFC immediately added £20kpw. True or not, it goes around, and obviously comes around again.
Seth Johnson's agent made the claim on a TV prog. Prior to meeting Peter Ridsdale he told Johnson, we'll look to get a 3 year deal on 25k a week. Ridsdale's opening offer was 37k a week for 4 years! Said agent had to keep his poker face on while he asked for sometime to discuss with his client.

The same programme showed Sean Davis''s (yes that one) agent asking Middlesborough for 750k up front just to enter negotiations :shock:
Heh, thanks. 15 years later, here we are again.

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