Independence Day.

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Enoch
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Independence Day.

Post by Enoch » Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:45 am

Thank f*ck that's all over and folk can get back to watching proper soap operas again.

Great to see the will of the people win the day. Three cheers for our democracy, thank the Lord we have the mother of all parliaments.

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Re: Independence Day.

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Mar 29, 2019 9:09 am

Enoch wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:45 am
Thank f*ck that's all over and folk can get back to watching proper soap operas again.

Great to see the will of the people win the day. Three cheers for our democracy, thank the Lord we have the mother of all parliaments.
But you wanted to protect the sovereignty of our parliament - or does that only matter when you personally agree with parliament?

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Re: Independence Day.

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:43 am

Currently taking a break while driving north through Republika Srpska. They don't seem to be stockpiling medicines or suffering from tariffs on Danish bacon or having difficulty importing PG Tips.
I think I'll have a go at setting up Republica East Midlandia when I get back.
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Re: Independence Day.

Post by TANGODANCER » Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:05 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:43 am
Currently taking a break while driving north through Republika Srpska. They don't seem to be stockpiling medicines or suffering from tariffs on Danish bacon or having difficulty importing PG Tips.
I think I'll have a go at setting up Republica East Midlandia when I get back.
The local authorities current raids on shops for "illegal" booze and tobacco helped by the media "headlines" give the impression "Poldark" and "Jamaica Inn" were nothing in comparison with Bolton and district. :wink:
The wisest and the best of men, nay, the wisest and best of their actions, may be rendered ridiculous by a person whose first object in life is a joke...Darcy. Pride and Prejudice.

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Re: Independence Day.

Post by Enoch » Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:01 pm

I've said it before, will probably say it again. He's one presumptuous prick.

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Re: Independence Day.

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:31 pm

Has anybody got a contact address for Dominic Cummings?
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Re: Independence Day.

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Fri Mar 29, 2019 4:21 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 9:09 am
Enoch wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:45 am
Thank f*ck that's all over and folk can get back to watching proper soap operas again.

Great to see the will of the people win the day. Three cheers for our democracy, thank the Lord we have the mother of all parliaments.
But you wanted to protect the sovereignty of our parliament - or does that only matter when you personally agree with parliament?
:conf:
Can you provide a link to what you claim that Enoch claims? Or are you mixing me an' him up because you presume we're both old white males and therefore are clones??????
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Re: Independence Day.

Post by Hoboh » Sat Apr 06, 2019 3:00 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 9:09 am
Enoch wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:45 am
Thank f*ck that's all over and folk can get back to watching proper soap operas again.

Great to see the will of the people win the day. Three cheers for our democracy, thank the Lord we have the mother of all parliaments.
But you wanted to protect the sovereignty of our parliament - or does that only matter when you personally agree with parliament?
Not exactly the same thing though are they mate,

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Re: Independence Day.

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:05 pm

Who really believes we'll be leaving the EU this Friday?

What?, Really? You're the biggest tit on the planet then...
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Re: Independence Day.

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:41 pm

Let's see how this shit plays out tonight:

Theresa May, as Prime Minister, spouting bullshit to the House of Commons less than 3 Weeks Ago.

"The government intend to bring forward proposals for a third meaningful vote. If that vote is passed, the extension will give the house time to consider the withdrawal agreement bill. If not, the house will have to decide how to proceed. But as prime minister— as prime minister, I am not prepared to delay Brexit any further than 30 June.

:lol:
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Re: Independence Day.

Post by Enoch » Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:06 am

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 4:21 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 9:09 am
Enoch wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:45 am
Thank f*ck that's all over and folk can get back to watching proper soap operas again.

Great to see the will of the people win the day. Three cheers for our democracy, thank the Lord we have the mother of all parliaments.
But you wanted to protect the sovereignty of our parliament - or does that only matter when you personally agree with parliament?
:conf:
Can you provide a link to what you claim that Enoch claims?
No, he can't.
:lol:

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Re: Independence Day.

Post by Hoboh » Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:51 am

Clunk, clang there goes the can down the road AGAIN!

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Re: Independence Day.

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:58 am

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:41 pm
Let's see how this shit plays out tonight:

Theresa May, as Prime Minister, spouting bullshit to the House of Commons less than 3 Weeks Ago.

"The government intend to bring forward proposals for a third meaningful vote. If that vote is passed, the extension will give the house time to consider the withdrawal agreement bill. If not, the house will have to decide how to proceed. But as prime minister— as prime minister, I am not prepared to delay Brexit any further than 30 June.

:lol:
She also said over a hundred times on public record that we'd definitely be leaving on the 29th of March, no matter what.

If she'd been honest from the start I imagine we'd have left by now. But trying to lie to each group of people with a different lie/threat has backfired spectacularly.

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Re: Independence Day.

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:56 pm

Lies, lies, damned lies and statistics:
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/04/1 ... ve-voters/
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Re: Independence Day.

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:45 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:56 pm
Lies, lies, damned lies and statistics:
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/04/1 ... ve-voters/
A very good piece of analysis and something I am oft guilty of. And I'm ashamed that I do in moments of weakness slip into that stereotyping belief.

The author of this piece had previously written a similarly excellent piece on the Brexit generational divide which your post had prompted me to find again.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpoli ... opolitans/

It is fascinating stuff. Especially around the gender splits in the younger voting attitudes.

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Re: Independence Day.

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:18 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:45 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:56 pm
Lies, lies, damned lies and statistics:
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/04/1 ... ve-voters/
A very good piece of analysis and something I am oft guilty of. And I'm ashamed that I do in moments of weakness slip into that stereotyping belief.

The author of this piece had previously written a similarly excellent piece on the Brexit generational divide which your post had prompted me to find again.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpoli ... opolitans/

It is fascinating stuff. Especially around the gender splits in the younger voting attitudes.
His summing up is biased to his own point of view:

There is one particularly interesting finding from our analysis – the significant difference regarding gender. Our paper found that young women were more likely to vote Remain than their male counterparts – a finding statistically significant at the 1% confidence level. This interestingly corresponds with the fact that young women were far more likely than young men to vote for Labour in the last general election. It appears that youth-led cosmopolitan-left social movements which support an internationalist approach to reducing economic inequality and protecting the environment, and extol the virtues of immigration-induced cultural diversity, have young women at their heart.

His statistical significance is verging on non significance. 1.5% would be a minimum to be truly significant. The further correlation he then makes, weakens, not strengthens, his statistical analysis, specifically as he gave no significance weight to each of the elements. Therefore to conclude, as he does "the ideas he espouses have young women at their heart" is mere propaganda. Spin doctoring.
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Re: Independence Day.

Post by BWFC_Insane » Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:52 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:18 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:45 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:56 pm
Lies, lies, damned lies and statistics:
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/04/1 ... ve-voters/
A very good piece of analysis and something I am oft guilty of. And I'm ashamed that I do in moments of weakness slip into that stereotyping belief.

The author of this piece had previously written a similarly excellent piece on the Brexit generational divide which your post had prompted me to find again.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpoli ... opolitans/

It is fascinating stuff. Especially around the gender splits in the younger voting attitudes.
His summing up is biased to his own point of view:

There is one particularly interesting finding from our analysis – the significant difference regarding gender. Our paper found that young women were more likely to vote Remain than their male counterparts – a finding statistically significant at the 1% confidence level. This interestingly corresponds with the fact that young women were far more likely than young men to vote for Labour in the last general election. It appears that youth-led cosmopolitan-left social movements which support an internationalist approach to reducing economic inequality and protecting the environment, and extol the virtues of immigration-induced cultural diversity, have young women at their heart.

His statistical significance is verging on non significance. 1.5% would be a minimum to be truly significant. The further correlation he then makes, weakens, not strengthens, his statistical analysis, specifically as he gave no significance weight to each of the elements. Therefore to conclude, as he does "the ideas he espouses have young women at their heart" is mere propaganda. Spin doctoring.
Now it is a long time since I engaged with such statistics but my understanding is he's using significance level (p values) and that being significant at 1% is more conclusive that at 5 or 10% - I believe that is what this is saying.

As per...
Significance Levels
The significance level for a given hypothesis test is a value for which a P-value less than or equal to is considered statistically significant. Typical values for are 0.1, 0.05, and 0.01. These values correspond to the probability of observing such an extreme value by chance. In the test score example above, the P-value is 0.0082, so the probability of observing such a value by chance is less that 0.01, and the result is significant at the 0.01 level.
In a one-sided test, corresponds to the critical value z* such that P(Z > z*) = . For example, if the desired significance level for a result is 0.05, the corresponding value for z must be greater than or equal to z* = 1.645 (or less than or equal to -1.645 for a one-sided alternative claiming that the mean is less than the null hypothesis). For a two-sided test, we are interested in the probability that 2P(Z > z*) = , so the critical value z* corresponds to the /2 significance level. To achieve a significance level of 0.05 for a two-sided test, the absolute value of the test statistic (|z|) must be greater than or equal to the critical value 1.96 (which corresponds to the level 0.025 for a one-sided test).

Another interpretation of the significance level , based in decision theory, is that corresponds to the value for which one chooses to reject or accept the null hypothesis H0. In the above example, the value 0.0082 would result in rejection of the null hypothesis at the 0.01 level. The probability that this is a mistake -- that, in fact, the null hypothesis is true given the z-statistic -- is less than 0.01. In decision theory, this is known as a Type I error. The probability of a Type I error is equal to the significance level , and the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is in fact false (a correct decision) is equal to 1 - . To minimize the probability of Type I error, the significance level is generally chosen to be small.

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Re: Independence Day.

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:25 pm

So... For it to be sigma, it will be less than 1%
Or do wonks who aren't mathematicians make up their own standard deviations?
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Re: Independence Day.

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:04 pm

If only Kate Hoey were Prime Minister.
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Re: Independence Day.

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:57 am

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:04 pm
If only Kate Hoey were Prime Minister.
Aye. With brainfarts like this we'd definitely all be saved...

https://www.joe.ie/politics/another-mp- ... les-644717

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