European Second Referendum
Moderator: Zulus Thousand of em
- BWFC_Insane
- Immortal
- Posts: 36201
- Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:07 pm
Re: European Second Referendum
The EU are split though. Macron has lost patience. He has his own problems and thinks we are an obstacle if the Brexit debacle hangs over for another 9 months.Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:06 pmI think there is absolutely no chance whatsoever of an accidental no deal on the 12th.BWFC_Insane wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:58 pmIts a fair summary (though we do not agree on conclusions but lets leave that) - except they will find a way to have another vote. Without the DUP however, that vote seemingly will be unlikely to pass unless Labour MPs support in numbers...Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:44 pmThis is my understanding.
We leave on May 22nd if May's deal approved.
. But that is conditional on voting through her deal by 11pm tomorrow.
.. But Bercow won't allow voting on her deal.
... Which means we leave on April 12th with no deal.
.... But parliament has already (three times now) rejected leaving with No Deal (and May, being a Remainer, although having stated No Deal etc etc etc fxcking cetera).
..... Thus. We are left with having a huge extension which the political corps of the Federalist Europeans will use to extensively probe the tender regions of our internal political backsides.
Am I right?
At that point I suspect the EU will be split with some just wanting rid of us asap and others wanting to offer us a long extension. I think there is a chance for an accidental no deal on the 12th. And then we'll see what happens....
There is a tiny possibility of a deliberate No Deal on 12th but so miniscule as not to be worth considering.
The EU has carefully calculated that we will be in for years and years and years... May only has to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and not the Political Declaration. It is a (conspiracy) stitch up.
At the very least they'd force us to partake in EU elections which May has already said we won't....at least not with her as PM...which again points towards a no-deal by accident.
All it takes is this - May's deal does not pass - she asks for an extension without a clear enough plan - one of the EU 27 refuses - no deal.
Re: European Second Referendum
I've done Macedonia to Albania, and saw some hilariously low-level bribery. We were getting a taxi about a mile over the border. There must be some kind of charge for cars/taxis as when the driver handed over our passports he casually handed over about five sachets of instant coffee. They then had a chat for about 30 secs (in foreign).Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:02 pmJust spent days travelling across borders. Some EU to EU. Some non-EU to EU and one non-EU to non-EU.
And am now parked in front of the crossing from Montenegro to Albania. This is what I call a Hard Border. The rest are as soft as shit. My dog doesn't even know she's left England. Until now.
We get dropped off and the taxi driver nips into a shop and walks out with a pint of milk. Presumably they ordered their return bribe on the way out.
In a world that has decided
That it's going to lose its mind
Be more kind, my friends, try to be more kind.
That it's going to lose its mind
Be more kind, my friends, try to be more kind.
- Lost Leopard Spot
- Immortal
- Posts: 18436
- Joined: Wed May 09, 2012 11:14 am
- Location: In the long grass, hunting for a watering hole.
Re: European Second Referendum
Once we've passed the Withdrawal Agreement without the Political Declaration, we've left. Only we haven't. We will still be in the EU only we have no way forward to negotiate the deal we haven't yet got. But we still follow their rules, and pay them money to do so.Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:06 pmI think there is absolutely no chance whatsoever of an accidental no deal on the 12th.BWFC_Insane wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:58 pmIts a fair summary (though we do not agree on conclusions but lets leave that) - except they will find a way to have another vote. Without the DUP however, that vote seemingly will be unlikely to pass unless Labour MPs support in numbers...Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:44 pmThis is my understanding.
We leave on May 22nd if May's deal approved.
. But that is conditional on voting through her deal by 11pm tomorrow.
.. But Bercow won't allow voting on her deal.
... Which means we leave on April 12th with no deal.
.... But parliament has already (three times now) rejected leaving with No Deal (and May, being a Remainer, although having stated No Deal etc etc etc fxcking cetera).
..... Thus. We are left with having a huge extension which the political corps of the Federalist Europeans will use to extensively probe the tender regions of our internal political backsides.
Am I right?
At that point I suspect the EU will be split with some just wanting rid of us asap and others wanting to offer us a long extension. I think there is a chance for an accidental no deal on the 12th. And then we'll see what happens....
There is a tiny possibility of a deliberate No Deal on 12th but so miniscule as not to be worth considering.
The EU has carefully calculated that we will be in for years and years and years... May only has to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and not the Political Declaration. It is a (conspiracy) stitch up.
May says she's accomplished the Will Of the People. The Euro-Political elite are satiated. Remainers get exactly what they wanted.
That's not a leopard!
頑張ってください
頑張ってください
Re: European Second Referendum
Footnote: we'd popped across the border to see a friend who was working in Albania with the foreign office with a remit to help them crack down on corruption.
In a world that has decided
That it's going to lose its mind
Be more kind, my friends, try to be more kind.
That it's going to lose its mind
Be more kind, my friends, try to be more kind.
- Lost Leopard Spot
- Immortal
- Posts: 18436
- Joined: Wed May 09, 2012 11:14 am
- Location: In the long grass, hunting for a watering hole.
Re: European Second Referendum
I'm tempted, very tempted, to just give it a go tonight. A quick stroll with baksheesh. I'll not risk the missus or the dog, but hey, you only get certain opportunities very occasionally...Prufrock wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:13 pmI've done Macedonia to Albania, and saw some hilariously low-level bribery. We were getting a taxi about a mile over the border. There must be some kind of charge for cars/taxis as when the driver handed over our passports he casually handed over about five sachets of instant coffee. They then had a chat for about 30 secs (in foreign).Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:02 pmJust spent days travelling across borders. Some EU to EU. Some non-EU to EU and one non-EU to non-EU.
And am now parked in front of the crossing from Montenegro to Albania. This is what I call a Hard Border. The rest are as soft as shit. My dog doesn't even know she's left England. Until now.
We get dropped off and the taxi driver nips into a shop and walks out with a pint of milk. Presumably they ordered their return bribe on the way out.
That's not a leopard!
頑張ってください
頑張ってください
- Lost Leopard Spot
- Immortal
- Posts: 18436
- Joined: Wed May 09, 2012 11:14 am
- Location: In the long grass, hunting for a watering hole.
Re: European Second Referendum
I suspect, but don't know, that the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (now known as Northern Macedonia by nobody)'s border with Albania is slightly softer than that between Montenegro and Albania for the reasons that Albanians and Macedonians are basically the same tribe with the same language, whereas the Albanians and the basically Serb Montenegrins have a history of conflict going back before the Roman Empire, exacerbated in recent times by a tiny patch called Kosovo.
Then again, I'll still give it a try...
That's not a leopard!
頑張ってください
頑張ってください
- BWFC_Insane
- Immortal
- Posts: 36201
- Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:07 pm
Re: European Second Referendum
Do you think there is any chance of passing the WA without the PD?Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:15 pmOnce we've passed the Withdrawal Agreement without the Political Declaration, we've left. Only we haven't. We will still be in the EU only we have no way forward to negotiate the deal we haven't yet got. But we still follow their rules, and pay them money to do so.Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:06 pmI think there is absolutely no chance whatsoever of an accidental no deal on the 12th.BWFC_Insane wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:58 pmIts a fair summary (though we do not agree on conclusions but lets leave that) - except they will find a way to have another vote. Without the DUP however, that vote seemingly will be unlikely to pass unless Labour MPs support in numbers...Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:44 pmThis is my understanding.
We leave on May 22nd if May's deal approved.
. But that is conditional on voting through her deal by 11pm tomorrow.
.. But Bercow won't allow voting on her deal.
... Which means we leave on April 12th with no deal.
.... But parliament has already (three times now) rejected leaving with No Deal (and May, being a Remainer, although having stated No Deal etc etc etc fxcking cetera).
..... Thus. We are left with having a huge extension which the political corps of the Federalist Europeans will use to extensively probe the tender regions of our internal political backsides.
Am I right?
At that point I suspect the EU will be split with some just wanting rid of us asap and others wanting to offer us a long extension. I think there is a chance for an accidental no deal on the 12th. And then we'll see what happens....
There is a tiny possibility of a deliberate No Deal on 12th but so miniscule as not to be worth considering.
The EU has carefully calculated that we will be in for years and years and years... May only has to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and not the Political Declaration. It is a (conspiracy) stitch up.
May says she's accomplished the Will Of the People. The Euro-Political elite are satiated. Remainers get exactly what they wanted.
Re: European Second Referendum
There's still some tension. Our taxi from the airport started with our taxi driver explaining that we shouldn't worry about what we'd heard of the Balkans, everyone was friends now and everything was chill. This lasted until we got to the barrier to get out where the car in front was struggling to get through.
Noticing the registration of the car, cue *hoooooorn* and "f*cking Albanians, useless people, f*cking useless!".
Same taxi driver told us of a previous career where he was corresponding with an American supplier who, despite a number of requests not to, kept addressing post to the "Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia". Our man had had enough and started writing correspondence back addressed to "The Former British Colony of America" which I thought was beautifully petty.
Also, if you get done for bribery, not my fault! Not sure I'd want to see Albanian jail!
Noticing the registration of the car, cue *hoooooorn* and "f*cking Albanians, useless people, f*cking useless!".
Same taxi driver told us of a previous career where he was corresponding with an American supplier who, despite a number of requests not to, kept addressing post to the "Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia". Our man had had enough and started writing correspondence back addressed to "The Former British Colony of America" which I thought was beautifully petty.
Also, if you get done for bribery, not my fault! Not sure I'd want to see Albanian jail!
In a world that has decided
That it's going to lose its mind
Be more kind, my friends, try to be more kind.
That it's going to lose its mind
Be more kind, my friends, try to be more kind.
- Lost Leopard Spot
- Immortal
- Posts: 18436
- Joined: Wed May 09, 2012 11:14 am
- Location: In the long grass, hunting for a watering hole.
Re: European Second Referendum
Yes.BWFC_Insane wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:29 pmDo you think there is any chance of passing the WA without the PD?Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:15 pmOnce we've passed the Withdrawal Agreement without the Political Declaration, we've left. Only we haven't. We will still be in the EU only we have no way forward to negotiate the deal we haven't yet got. But we still follow their rules, and pay them money to do so.Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:06 pmI think there is absolutely no chance whatsoever of an accidental no deal on the 12th.BWFC_Insane wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:58 pmIts a fair summary (though we do not agree on conclusions but lets leave that) - except they will find a way to have another vote. Without the DUP however, that vote seemingly will be unlikely to pass unless Labour MPs support in numbers...Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:44 pmThis is my understanding.
We leave on May 22nd if May's deal approved.
. But that is conditional on voting through her deal by 11pm tomorrow.
.. But Bercow won't allow voting on her deal.
... Which means we leave on April 12th with no deal.
.... But parliament has already (three times now) rejected leaving with No Deal (and May, being a Remainer, although having stated No Deal etc etc etc fxcking cetera).
..... Thus. We are left with having a huge extension which the political corps of the Federalist Europeans will use to extensively probe the tender regions of our internal political backsides.
Am I right?
At that point I suspect the EU will be split with some just wanting rid of us asap and others wanting to offer us a long extension. I think there is a chance for an accidental no deal on the 12th. And then we'll see what happens....
There is a tiny possibility of a deliberate No Deal on 12th but so miniscule as not to be worth considering.
The EU has carefully calculated that we will be in for years and years and years... May only has to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and not the Political Declaration. It is a (conspiracy) stitch up.
May says she's accomplished the Will Of the People. The Euro-Political elite are satiated. Remainers get exactly what they wanted.
If the ERG see it as strategic, and the DUP see it for what it is.
The holdback will be the likes of Jenkin, Cash, Francois, Bacon, Baker: those more ultra of the ERG who will see it for the stitch up it is.
That's not a leopard!
頑張ってください
頑張ってください
- Lost Leopard Spot
- Immortal
- Posts: 18436
- Joined: Wed May 09, 2012 11:14 am
- Location: In the long grass, hunting for a watering hole.
Re: European Second Referendum
Hey, I'm a grown up! I'll take responsibility for my own cock ups.
There are one or two borders I'd NEVER consider crossing 'casually': Iraq-Iran, South Korea-North Korea, Russia-China, Gaza-Israel, Turkey-anyfxckingwhereelse.
Then again, without a visa I've crossed US-Canada, Nepal-China (Tibet), and Mongolia-Russia.
I can actually see a café on the far side from where I'm sitting. It looks more vibrant than the picnic area where we're camped.
That's not a leopard!
頑張ってください
頑張ってください
- Harry Genshaw
- Legend
- Posts: 9115
- Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2005 10:47 pm
- Location: Half dead in Panama
Re: European Second Referendum
At first reading I thought your dog was called Baksheesh!Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:17 pmA quick stroll with baksheesh. I'll not risk the missus or the dog,
"Get your feet off the furniture you Oxbridge tw*t. You're not on a feckin punt now you know"
- Lost Leopard Spot
- Immortal
- Posts: 18436
- Joined: Wed May 09, 2012 11:14 am
- Location: In the long grass, hunting for a watering hole.
Re: European Second Referendum
Harry Genshaw wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:41 pmAt first reading I thought your dog was called Baksheesh!Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:17 pmA quick stroll with baksheesh. I'll not risk the missus or the dog,
I 'nipped' across the border to the cafe. Only the cafe is in nomansland and so technically I didn't get into Albania. And it cost me five euros and a miniature Jamieson's. But I am now the proud owner of an Albanian exit stamp in my otherwise nearly pristine passport. No visa or entry stamp, just the exit stamp!
It sits on the same page as my Liechtenstein 'entry' stamp. Opposite my Canadian work permit that was transferred from my previous passport. And that's it. - I used to love all the messily stamped visas and permits and border stamps of yore. Hopefully Brexit will bring back a few more, although I'm not hopeful - when passing into Montenegro from Bosnia from Croatia they didn't even look at my passport never mind stamp it. They just glanced at my numberplate and waived me through!
That's not a leopard!
頑張ってください
頑張ってください
Re: European Second Referendum
I wonder if Parliament would welcome Éire into the United Kingdom?
That would get around one hard border issue.
Probably boost their economy too.
That would get around one hard border issue.
Probably boost their economy too.
Re: European Second Referendum
I checked, En Marche doesn't translate as Change UK.
- Montreal Wanderer
- Immortal
- Posts: 12942
- Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 12:45 am
- Location: Montreal, Canada
Re: European Second Referendum
Oh please! It's not been a century since you got rid of them....
"If you cannot answer a man's argument, all it not lost; you can still call him vile names. " Elbert Hubbard.
- Lost Leopard Spot
- Immortal
- Posts: 18436
- Joined: Wed May 09, 2012 11:14 am
- Location: In the long grass, hunting for a watering hole.
Re: European Second Referendum
We never did get rid of them. They can park their caravans for weeks at a time on public land before an eviction notice moves them on in a never ending cycle. Meanwhile we let them vote! And educate their children, and cure their illnesses, and pay them dole money. All the while they keep whingeing about the education, the treatment, the potholes, the lack of respect.Montreal Wanderer wrote: ↑Sat Mar 30, 2019 5:00 pmOh please! It's not been a century since you got rid of them....
That's not a leopard!
頑張ってください
頑張ってください
- Lost Leopard Spot
- Immortal
- Posts: 18436
- Joined: Wed May 09, 2012 11:14 am
- Location: In the long grass, hunting for a watering hole.
Re: European Second Referendum
This use of the phrase "Cliff Edge".
It's biased.
It's biased.
That's not a leopard!
頑張ってください
頑張ってください
- Harry Genshaw
- Legend
- Posts: 9115
- Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2005 10:47 pm
- Location: Half dead in Panama
Re: European Second Referendum
I agree. It's the same with 'crashing out without a deal'.Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:20 pmThis use of the phrase "Cliff Edge".
It's biased.
"Get your feet off the furniture you Oxbridge tw*t. You're not on a feckin punt now you know"
- BWFC_Insane
- Immortal
- Posts: 36201
- Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:07 pm
Re: European Second Referendum
Yet the main leave campaign went to pains to say pre referendum that voting to leave wouldn't mean "crashing out" that it would mean a carefully negotiated deal - before we even triggered the leaving mechanic.Harry Genshaw wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2019 4:27 pmI agree. It's the same with 'crashing out without a deal'.Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:20 pmThis use of the phrase "Cliff Edge".
It's biased.
The reason it is referred to as "crashing out" is because the number of businesses and industries who trade with or through the EU are too large to properly impact assess. So you're basically going to have thousands of unintended consequences of leaving without a deal. And nobody knows what that will mean. Given a no deal has a contingency planning around troops being deployed on the streets - is that something we really want?
Re: European Second Referendum
Project fear peddlingBWFC_Insane wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:08 amYet the main leave campaign went to pains to say pre referendum that voting to leave wouldn't mean "crashing out" that it would mean a carefully negotiated deal - before we even triggered the leaving mechanic.Harry Genshaw wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2019 4:27 pmI agree. It's the same with 'crashing out without a deal'.Lost Leopard Spot wrote: ↑Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:20 pmThis use of the phrase "Cliff Edge".
It's biased.
The reason it is referred to as "crashing out" is because the number of businesses and industries who trade with or through the EU are too large to properly impact assess. So you're basically going to have thousands of unintended consequences of leaving without a deal. And nobody knows what that will mean. Given a no deal has a contingency planning around troops being deployed on the streets - is that something we really want?
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 47 guests