European Second Referendum

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In or Out

IN (including all the rules and all the costs including increased costs).
7
44%
OUT (including a proper No Deal Brexit with no payment to the EU at all, and no more rule taking).
7
44%
MAY-be: or are you one of her followers?
2
13%
 
Total votes: 16

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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:08 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:06 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:58 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:44 pm
This is my understanding.

We leave on May 22nd if May's deal approved.
. But that is conditional on voting through her deal by 11pm tomorrow.
.. But Bercow won't allow voting on her deal.
... Which means we leave on April 12th with no deal.
.... But parliament has already (three times now) rejected leaving with No Deal (and May, being a Remainer, although having stated No Deal etc etc etc fxcking cetera).
..... Thus. We are left with having a huge extension which the political corps of the Federalist Europeans will use to extensively probe the tender regions of our internal political backsides.

Am I right?
Its a fair summary (though we do not agree on conclusions but lets leave that) - except they will find a way to have another vote. Without the DUP however, that vote seemingly will be unlikely to pass unless Labour MPs support in numbers...

At that point I suspect the EU will be split with some just wanting rid of us asap and others wanting to offer us a long extension. I think there is a chance for an accidental no deal on the 12th. And then we'll see what happens....
I think there is absolutely no chance whatsoever of an accidental no deal on the 12th.
There is a tiny possibility of a deliberate No Deal on 12th but so miniscule as not to be worth considering.

The EU has carefully calculated that we will be in for years and years and years... May only has to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and not the Political Declaration. It is a (conspiracy) stitch up.
The EU are split though. Macron has lost patience. He has his own problems and thinks we are an obstacle if the Brexit debacle hangs over for another 9 months.

At the very least they'd force us to partake in EU elections which May has already said we won't....at least not with her as PM...which again points towards a no-deal by accident.

All it takes is this - May's deal does not pass - she asks for an extension without a clear enough plan - one of the EU 27 refuses - no deal.

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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Prufrock » Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:13 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:02 pm
Just spent days travelling across borders. Some EU to EU. Some non-EU to EU and one non-EU to non-EU.
And am now parked in front of the crossing from Montenegro to Albania. This is what I call a Hard Border. The rest are as soft as shit. My dog doesn't even know she's left England. Until now.
I've done Macedonia to Albania, and saw some hilariously low-level bribery. We were getting a taxi about a mile over the border. There must be some kind of charge for cars/taxis as when the driver handed over our passports he casually handed over about five sachets of instant coffee. They then had a chat for about 30 secs (in foreign).

We get dropped off and the taxi driver nips into a shop and walks out with a pint of milk. Presumably they ordered their return bribe on the way out.
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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:15 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:06 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:58 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:44 pm
This is my understanding.

We leave on May 22nd if May's deal approved.
. But that is conditional on voting through her deal by 11pm tomorrow.
.. But Bercow won't allow voting on her deal.
... Which means we leave on April 12th with no deal.
.... But parliament has already (three times now) rejected leaving with No Deal (and May, being a Remainer, although having stated No Deal etc etc etc fxcking cetera).
..... Thus. We are left with having a huge extension which the political corps of the Federalist Europeans will use to extensively probe the tender regions of our internal political backsides.

Am I right?
Its a fair summary (though we do not agree on conclusions but lets leave that) - except they will find a way to have another vote. Without the DUP however, that vote seemingly will be unlikely to pass unless Labour MPs support in numbers...

At that point I suspect the EU will be split with some just wanting rid of us asap and others wanting to offer us a long extension. I think there is a chance for an accidental no deal on the 12th. And then we'll see what happens....
I think there is absolutely no chance whatsoever of an accidental no deal on the 12th.
There is a tiny possibility of a deliberate No Deal on 12th but so miniscule as not to be worth considering.

The EU has carefully calculated that we will be in for years and years and years... May only has to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and not the Political Declaration. It is a (conspiracy) stitch up.
Once we've passed the Withdrawal Agreement without the Political Declaration, we've left. Only we haven't. We will still be in the EU only we have no way forward to negotiate the deal we haven't yet got. But we still follow their rules, and pay them money to do so.
May says she's accomplished the Will Of the People. The Euro-Political elite are satiated. Remainers get exactly what they wanted.
That's not a leopard!
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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Prufrock » Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:16 pm

Footnote: we'd popped across the border to see a friend who was working in Albania with the foreign office with a remit to help them crack down on corruption.
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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:17 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:13 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:02 pm
Just spent days travelling across borders. Some EU to EU. Some non-EU to EU and one non-EU to non-EU.
And am now parked in front of the crossing from Montenegro to Albania. This is what I call a Hard Border. The rest are as soft as shit. My dog doesn't even know she's left England. Until now.
I've done Macedonia to Albania, and saw some hilariously low-level bribery. We were getting a taxi about a mile over the border. There must be some kind of charge for cars/taxis as when the driver handed over our passports he casually handed over about five sachets of instant coffee. They then had a chat for about 30 secs (in foreign).

We get dropped off and the taxi driver nips into a shop and walks out with a pint of milk. Presumably they ordered their return bribe on the way out.
I'm tempted, very tempted, to just give it a go tonight. A quick stroll with baksheesh. I'll not risk the missus or the dog, but hey, you only get certain opportunities very occasionally...
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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:23 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:16 pm
Footnote: we'd popped across the border to see a friend who was working in Albania with the foreign office with a remit to help them crack down on corruption.
I suspect, but don't know, that the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (now known as Northern Macedonia by nobody)'s border with Albania is slightly softer than that between Montenegro and Albania for the reasons that Albanians and Macedonians are basically the same tribe with the same language, whereas the Albanians and the basically Serb Montenegrins have a history of conflict going back before the Roman Empire, exacerbated in recent times by a tiny patch called Kosovo.
Then again, I'll still give it a try...
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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by BWFC_Insane » Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:29 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:15 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:06 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:58 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:44 pm
This is my understanding.

We leave on May 22nd if May's deal approved.
. But that is conditional on voting through her deal by 11pm tomorrow.
.. But Bercow won't allow voting on her deal.
... Which means we leave on April 12th with no deal.
.... But parliament has already (three times now) rejected leaving with No Deal (and May, being a Remainer, although having stated No Deal etc etc etc fxcking cetera).
..... Thus. We are left with having a huge extension which the political corps of the Federalist Europeans will use to extensively probe the tender regions of our internal political backsides.

Am I right?
Its a fair summary (though we do not agree on conclusions but lets leave that) - except they will find a way to have another vote. Without the DUP however, that vote seemingly will be unlikely to pass unless Labour MPs support in numbers...

At that point I suspect the EU will be split with some just wanting rid of us asap and others wanting to offer us a long extension. I think there is a chance for an accidental no deal on the 12th. And then we'll see what happens....
I think there is absolutely no chance whatsoever of an accidental no deal on the 12th.
There is a tiny possibility of a deliberate No Deal on 12th but so miniscule as not to be worth considering.

The EU has carefully calculated that we will be in for years and years and years... May only has to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and not the Political Declaration. It is a (conspiracy) stitch up.
Once we've passed the Withdrawal Agreement without the Political Declaration, we've left. Only we haven't. We will still be in the EU only we have no way forward to negotiate the deal we haven't yet got. But we still follow their rules, and pay them money to do so.
May says she's accomplished the Will Of the People. The Euro-Political elite are satiated. Remainers get exactly what they wanted.
Do you think there is any chance of passing the WA without the PD?

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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Prufrock » Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:33 pm

There's still some tension. Our taxi from the airport started with our taxi driver explaining that we shouldn't worry about what we'd heard of the Balkans, everyone was friends now and everything was chill. This lasted until we got to the barrier to get out where the car in front was struggling to get through.

Noticing the registration of the car, cue *hoooooorn* and "f*cking Albanians, useless people, f*cking useless!".

Same taxi driver told us of a previous career where he was corresponding with an American supplier who, despite a number of requests not to, kept addressing post to the "Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia". Our man had had enough and started writing correspondence back addressed to "The Former British Colony of America" which I thought was beautifully petty.

Also, if you get done for bribery, not my fault! Not sure I'd want to see Albanian jail!
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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:36 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:29 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:15 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:06 pm
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:58 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:44 pm
This is my understanding.

We leave on May 22nd if May's deal approved.
. But that is conditional on voting through her deal by 11pm tomorrow.
.. But Bercow won't allow voting on her deal.
... Which means we leave on April 12th with no deal.
.... But parliament has already (three times now) rejected leaving with No Deal (and May, being a Remainer, although having stated No Deal etc etc etc fxcking cetera).
..... Thus. We are left with having a huge extension which the political corps of the Federalist Europeans will use to extensively probe the tender regions of our internal political backsides.

Am I right?
Its a fair summary (though we do not agree on conclusions but lets leave that) - except they will find a way to have another vote. Without the DUP however, that vote seemingly will be unlikely to pass unless Labour MPs support in numbers...

At that point I suspect the EU will be split with some just wanting rid of us asap and others wanting to offer us a long extension. I think there is a chance for an accidental no deal on the 12th. And then we'll see what happens....
I think there is absolutely no chance whatsoever of an accidental no deal on the 12th.
There is a tiny possibility of a deliberate No Deal on 12th but so miniscule as not to be worth considering.

The EU has carefully calculated that we will be in for years and years and years... May only has to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and not the Political Declaration. It is a (conspiracy) stitch up.
Once we've passed the Withdrawal Agreement without the Political Declaration, we've left. Only we haven't. We will still be in the EU only we have no way forward to negotiate the deal we haven't yet got. But we still follow their rules, and pay them money to do so.
May says she's accomplished the Will Of the People. The Euro-Political elite are satiated. Remainers get exactly what they wanted.
Do you think there is any chance of passing the WA without the PD?
Yes.
If the ERG see it as strategic, and the DUP see it for what it is.
The holdback will be the likes of Jenkin, Cash, Francois, Bacon, Baker: those more ultra of the ERG who will see it for the stitch up it is.
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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:47 pm

Prufrock wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:33 pm

Also, if you get done for bribery, not my fault! Not sure I'd want to see Albanian jail!
Hey, I'm a grown up! I'll take responsibility for my own cock ups. :D

There are one or two borders I'd NEVER consider crossing 'casually': Iraq-Iran, South Korea-North Korea, Russia-China, Gaza-Israel, Turkey-anyfxckingwhereelse.
Then again, without a visa I've crossed US-Canada, Nepal-China (Tibet), and Mongolia-Russia.

I can actually see a café on the far side from where I'm sitting. It looks more vibrant than the picnic area where we're camped.
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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Harry Genshaw » Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:41 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:17 pm
A quick stroll with baksheesh. I'll not risk the missus or the dog,
At first reading I thought your dog was called Baksheesh!
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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:20 pm

Harry Genshaw wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:41 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:17 pm
A quick stroll with baksheesh. I'll not risk the missus or the dog,
At first reading I thought your dog was called Baksheesh!
:lol:

I 'nipped' across the border to the cafe. Only the cafe is in nomansland and so technically I didn't get into Albania. And it cost me five euros and a miniature Jamieson's. But I am now the proud owner of an Albanian exit stamp in my otherwise nearly pristine passport. No visa or entry stamp, just the exit stamp!
It sits on the same page as my Liechtenstein 'entry' stamp. Opposite my Canadian work permit that was transferred from my previous passport. And that's it. - I used to love all the messily stamped visas and permits and border stamps of yore. Hopefully Brexit will bring back a few more, although I'm not hopeful - when passing into Montenegro from Bosnia from Croatia they didn't even look at my passport never mind stamp it. They just glanced at my numberplate and waived me through!
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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Enoch » Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:29 pm

I wonder if Parliament would welcome Éire into the United Kingdom?

That would get around one hard border issue.

Probably boost their economy too.

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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Enoch » Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:51 pm

I checked, En Marche doesn't translate as Change UK.

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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Montreal Wanderer » Sat Mar 30, 2019 5:00 pm

Enoch wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:29 pm
I wonder if Parliament would welcome Éire into the United Kingdom?

That would get around one hard border issue.

Probably boost their economy too.
Oh please! It's not been a century since you got rid of them....
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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:44 pm

Montreal Wanderer wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2019 5:00 pm
Enoch wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:29 pm
I wonder if Parliament would welcome Éire into the United Kingdom?

That would get around one hard border issue.

Probably boost their economy too.
Oh please! It's not been a century since you got rid of them....
We never did get rid of them. They can park their caravans for weeks at a time on public land before an eviction notice moves them on in a never ending cycle. Meanwhile we let them vote! And educate their children, and cure their illnesses, and pay them dole money. All the while they keep whingeing about the education, the treatment, the potholes, the lack of respect.
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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Lost Leopard Spot » Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:20 pm

This use of the phrase "Cliff Edge".
It's biased.
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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Harry Genshaw » Sun Mar 31, 2019 4:27 pm

Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:20 pm
This use of the phrase "Cliff Edge".
It's biased.
I agree. It's the same with 'crashing out without a deal'.
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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:08 am

Harry Genshaw wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 4:27 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:20 pm
This use of the phrase "Cliff Edge".
It's biased.
I agree. It's the same with 'crashing out without a deal'.
Yet the main leave campaign went to pains to say pre referendum that voting to leave wouldn't mean "crashing out" that it would mean a carefully negotiated deal - before we even triggered the leaving mechanic.

The reason it is referred to as "crashing out" is because the number of businesses and industries who trade with or through the EU are too large to properly impact assess. So you're basically going to have thousands of unintended consequences of leaving without a deal. And nobody knows what that will mean. Given a no deal has a contingency planning around troops being deployed on the streets - is that something we really want?

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Re: European Second Referendum

Post by Hoboh » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:37 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:08 am
Harry Genshaw wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 4:27 pm
Lost Leopard Spot wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:20 pm
This use of the phrase "Cliff Edge".
It's biased.
I agree. It's the same with 'crashing out without a deal'.
Yet the main leave campaign went to pains to say pre referendum that voting to leave wouldn't mean "crashing out" that it would mean a carefully negotiated deal - before we even triggered the leaving mechanic.

The reason it is referred to as "crashing out" is because the number of businesses and industries who trade with or through the EU are too large to properly impact assess. So you're basically going to have thousands of unintended consequences of leaving without a deal. And nobody knows what that will mean. Given a no deal has a contingency planning around troops being deployed on the streets - is that something we really want?
Project fear peddling

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