FV Recruitment Model

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FV Recruitment Model

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:09 am

Fascinating article from Marc Iles here.

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/1 ... -approach/

Bolton will seemingly try to implement an analytics led approach to recruitment and one can assume sports science, coaching etc...

Now - we were once leaders here but have fallen away after a succession of post-Megson managers decided their own judgement was better than utilising data-driven expertise. Fully support this approach and glad that someone with Kenyon's experience is supporting the plan - I'd be less excited if he ended up investing but as an expert - good.

Now this may explain some of the Hill outbursts - clearly Hill came in wanting to be the face of the revival but seems like the plan will be far bolder than that and he may have to find ways of working in an unfamiliar model. I wonder how he will adapt? He has an assistant who I suspect will be far more open to such a model who has already managed......

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by The_Gun » Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:36 am

I am not surprised that this is the model the new ownership have decided to take, but certainly pleased to have it confirmed. Hopefully they have the sense to develop a model tailored to the nuances of our club and don't try to directly copy Brentford, or any other club. Also how Hill fits into this kind of structure I don't know.

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:39 am

The_Gun wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:36 am
I am not surprised that this is the model the new ownership have decided to take, but certainly pleased to have it confirmed. Hopefully they have the sense to develop a model tailored to the nuances of our club and don't try to directly copy Brentford, or any other club. Also how Hill fits into this kind of structure I don't know.
My big hope is that we recruit from all round the world again and stop artificially limiting ourselves to English players that whomever is manager at the time once tried to sign/worked with/knows/shares an agent.

We haven't had a proper global scouting network since Coyle dismantled it.

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by Prufrock » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:27 am

Long term sure but wouldn't be a priority now. Limited numbers of folk who'd uproot and move country for League 2 wages. Not zero, but I don't think it's an efficient use of resources atm. Better off looking at non-league, lower league and any of the Prem teams' (particularly United, City and Liverpool) cast-offs. Hamilton types.

Absolutely agree on ending the whole "I know him from x, he's a good lad" approach though.
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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by LeverEnd » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:31 am

Beginning of the end for Keith. He'll tantrum his way to a P45 I expect.
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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by LeverEnd » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:32 am

I'll be more positive if I start to see some evidence of it working, but right now it's just a shrug from me I'm afraid.
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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:35 am

Prufrock wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:27 am
Long term sure but wouldn't be a priority now. Limited numbers of folk who'd uproot and move country for League 2 wages. Not zero, but I don't think it's an efficient use of resources atm. Better off looking at non-league, lower league and any of the Prem teams' (particularly United, City and Liverpool) cast-offs. Hamilton types.

Absolutely agree on ending the whole "I know him from x, he's a good lad" approach though.
I mean who you can bring in from elsewhere in league 2 is limited and Brexit won't help. But the point remains that clubs like Brentford rose up via an extensive scouting system taking players from a far wider area than we did on our way down.

Needs to be a good mix but we've spent far too long limiting ourselves.

But the system, team and club structure need to be in place asap - we need a proper plan and a team to deliver it. No more patching a squad together season by season with no over-arching plan beyond a managers' whim or fad. Recruit to a system and plan and change the manager if and when needed rather than overhauling play squads based on "he's a good lad".

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by Prufrock » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:48 am

Sure, I think we largely agree.

On L2 recruitment I think you're right but, tends to be a lot more churn on contracts down there so lots of people out of contact each year, and also you'd hope there's a moneyball hidden value element that means it isn't always get the top scorer in the league.

Re: abroad I'd imagine we'd sign up to one of those "football manager" type databases to triage and then have a look at a few but wouldn't think it would be the focus. Scotland Wales and Ireland perhaps.
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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by Hoboh » Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:27 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:35 am
Prufrock wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:27 am
Long term sure but wouldn't be a priority now. Limited numbers of folk who'd uproot and move country for League 2 wages. Not zero, but I don't think it's an efficient use of resources atm. Better off looking at non-league, lower league and any of the Prem teams' (particularly United, City and Liverpool) cast-offs. Hamilton types.

Absolutely agree on ending the whole "I know him from x, he's a good lad" approach though.
I mean who you can bring in from elsewhere in league 2 is limited and Brexit won't help. But the point remains that clubs like Brentford rose up via an extensive scouting system taking players from a far wider area than we did on our way down.

Needs to be a good mix but we've spent far too long limiting ourselves.

But the system, team and club structure need to be in place asap - we need a proper plan and a team to deliver it. No more patching a squad together season by season with no over-arching plan beyond a managers' whim or fad. Recruit to a system and plan and change the manager if and when needed rather than overhauling play squads based on "he's a good lad".
You just had to didn't you?

Anyway my take is the science side is useful but without a decent manager on board who can digest and make the most of it, it's pie in the sky.
Oh and you still need the ability to spot a good lad.

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by TANGODANCER » Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:32 am

LeverEnd wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:32 am
I'll be more positive if I start to see some evidence of it working, but right now it's just a shrug from me I'm afraid.
However many business models, transfer negotiations,statistics, analysis and high-flying lotions and potions we use, scoring one goal more than the opposition at full-time in any game is still the surest ( and only) way forward to success and survival in football. "You're only as good as your last job" was never more relevant than today. Ask Jose Maurinho and co.
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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:59 am

Hoboh wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:27 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:35 am
Prufrock wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:27 am
Long term sure but wouldn't be a priority now. Limited numbers of folk who'd uproot and move country for League 2 wages. Not zero, but I don't think it's an efficient use of resources atm. Better off looking at non-league, lower league and any of the Prem teams' (particularly United, City and Liverpool) cast-offs. Hamilton types.

Absolutely agree on ending the whole "I know him from x, he's a good lad" approach though.
I mean who you can bring in from elsewhere in league 2 is limited and Brexit won't help. But the point remains that clubs like Brentford rose up via an extensive scouting system taking players from a far wider area than we did on our way down.

Needs to be a good mix but we've spent far too long limiting ourselves.

But the system, team and club structure need to be in place asap - we need a proper plan and a team to deliver it. No more patching a squad together season by season with no over-arching plan beyond a managers' whim or fad. Recruit to a system and plan and change the manager if and when needed rather than overhauling play squads based on "he's a good lad".
You just had to didn't you?

Anyway my take is the science side is useful but without a decent manager on board who can digest and make the most of it, it's pie in the sky.
Oh and you still need the ability to spot a good lad.
The thing is clubs like Brentford, Southampton have to an extent divorced a lot of what they do from the manager. And appointed manager's to a vision. But the overarching direction is set by a DoF or similar and implemented by a team. The manager becomes a 1st team coach in essence and what it means is you're no longer so dependent on them and their decision making.

I fully think that is the way to go. 10 years ago I'd have been dead against - we had Sam Allardyce who implemented all that stuff himself - but when he went it fell apart. We can't as a club continue to be run on the hope we find a miracle man to manage us. We have to be more sustainable regardless and have a vision regardless.

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by The_Gun » Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:04 pm

TANGODANCER wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:32 am
LeverEnd wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:32 am
I'll be more positive if I start to see some evidence of it working, but right now it's just a shrug from me I'm afraid.
However many business models, transfer negotiations,statistics, analysis and high-flying lotions and potions we use, scoring one goal more than the opposition at full-time in any game is still the surest ( and only) way forward to success and survival in football. "You're only as good as your last job" was never more relevant than today. Ask Jose Maurinho and co.
That's a bit reductive, though. Emphasizing structure and sustainability from the top down is a smart method for giving a club like ours a better chance of 'scoring one more than the opposition' on a more regular basis.
Last edited by The_Gun on Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by bristol_Wanderer3 » Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:14 pm

This is very good news. Not only does it reaffirm FV's commitment, but it puts something stable in place that isn't dependent on the whims of the manager. Brentford's transfer dealings over the past few years has been phenomenal, bringing in £48m since 16/17, helping to pay for their new stadium, whilst still signing decent players and overachieving on the pitch.

For us it will bear more fruit when he have full freedom in the transfer market. Also, other clubs had first mover advantage, but still no harm in getting this in place asap and having a consistent approach to transfers.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/brentfo ... lpos=&w_s=

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by Harry Genshaw » Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:29 pm

Brentford are a great example for when we can start paying fees again. Peterborough, or Burnley as was, are a better model for us to follow right now.
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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:52 pm

Interesting you mention Peterborough. Last summer, they hired a number-cruncher off Twitter - Sheffield United fan @Blades_analytic - to help them suggest and assess potential signings.

Behind the irksome look-at-me "personalities" at Posh, there's an interesting model. Automatically transfer-listing players who won't renew contracts in their last year, that sort of thing. And they've found a few gems.

Burnley just feels more old-school sensible financing. Picked up good 'uns from the rags like Michael Keane and Dwight McNeil but muich of the rest is taking a gamble on players too good for the Champo whom the other Prem clubs won't touch; sometimes it works, sometimes (Andre Gray) it doesn't. (On a related note, it'll be inetersting to see the fallout if Bournemouth go down.)

I do think the Moneyball idea has become a bit of a mythical magic bullet, but better that than the blunderbuss or scattergun. I'm still not sure we should be doling out long contracts until folk have proven their worth, though. And that, too, can be done by wise analytics rather than just Did He Score?

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by Harry Genshaw » Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:20 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:52 pm

Burnley just feels more old-school sensible financing. Picked up good 'uns from the rags like Michael Keane and Dwight McNeil but muich of the rest is taking a gamble on players too good for the Champo whom the other Prem clubs won't touch; sometimes it works, sometimes (Andre Gray) it doesn't.
I was thinking more their pre premier league days, when they signed players from lower divisions, polished em and sold em on for a huge profit. Rodriguez, Austin and Ings. 3 successive strikers they sold on for 7m each.

Grey, I'd argue, worked pretty well for them. Sold quickly and at a reported 300% profit when, presumably they felt he wasnt a right fit.
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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by TANGODANCER » Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:29 pm

Least qualified of all re opinions these days, and despite my ever present optimism I still can't quite equate facts and figures management without our dreadful injury hoodoo; that and the fact that footballers are humans with all that goes along with that. I keep looking at where we; Bolton Wanderers, actually are in the grand scheme of things. That is a fact that can't be dismissed. I want to be dreadfully wrong.
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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:31 pm

Harry Genshaw wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:20 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:52 pm

Burnley just feels more old-school sensible financing. Picked up good 'uns from the rags like Michael Keane and Dwight McNeil but muich of the rest is taking a gamble on players too good for the Champo whom the other Prem clubs won't touch; sometimes it works, sometimes (Andre Gray) it doesn't.
I was thinking more their pre premier league days, when they signed players from lower divisions, polished em and sold em on for a huge profit. Rodriguez, Austin and Ings. 3 successive strikers they sold on for 7m each.

Grey, I'd argue, worked pretty well for them. Sold quickly and at a reported 300% profit when, presumably they felt he wasnt a right fit.
Trouble is you don't know how much of that was luck vs a robust system. Allardyce implemented a system at Bolton that achieved things because it was ahead of the curve. It did stuff just about every club started doing a decade later.

Burnley may have struck lucky with some deals and profited and eventually struck gold with Dyche as manager. But I'd argue if Dyche left now they could easily plummet to the lower leagues just like we have and struggle to rise again. Whereas, Southampton for example - could fall out of the top flight but they have a system that one assumes will eventually bring another crop of younger players through. And their manager is secondary to that.

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:48 pm

Harry Genshaw wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:20 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:52 pm

Burnley just feels more old-school sensible financing. Picked up good 'uns from the rags like Michael Keane and Dwight McNeil but muich of the rest is taking a gamble on players too good for the Champo whom the other Prem clubs won't touch; sometimes it works, sometimes (Andre Gray) it doesn't.
I was thinking more their pre premier league days, when they signed players from lower divisions, polished em and sold em on for a huge profit. Rodriguez, Austin and Ings. 3 successive strikers they sold on for 7m each.

Grey, I'd argue, worked pretty well for them. Sold quickly and at a reported 300% profit when, presumably they felt he wasnt a right fit.
Fair enough. As opposed to Ben Gibson - £15m for one league appearance in 18 months...

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Re: FV Recruitment Model

Post by Prufrock » Mon Jan 20, 2020 4:08 pm

Harry Genshaw wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:20 pm
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:52 pm

Burnley just feels more old-school sensible financing. Picked up good 'uns from the rags like Michael Keane and Dwight McNeil but muich of the rest is taking a gamble on players too good for the Champo whom the other Prem clubs won't touch; sometimes it works, sometimes (Andre Gray) it doesn't.
I was thinking more their pre premier league days, when they signed players from lower divisions, polished em and sold em on for a huge profit. Rodriguez, Austin and Ings. 3 successive strikers they sold on for 7m each.

Grey, I'd argue, worked pretty well for them. Sold quickly and at a reported 300% profit when, presumably they felt he wasnt a right fit.
Aye different model before they went up first time. You can add Mee and Trippier from City. Imagine Heaton was on that list albeit they couldn't get him immediately.

Eddie Howe must get a lot of credit too for that recruitment, especially strikers.

Vokes and Ings both came through at Bournemouth. Charlie Austin banged them in at Poole not far up the road. Howe tried to sign him for Bournemouth and then immediately signed him for Burnley.

Ashley Barnes also had a loan spell around that period with Dorchester (though I think was a Dyche signing) so presumably a scout stayed or they recorded the scouting pretty well.

Some class strikers doing the rounds on the south coast non-league circuit in 08-11!

Since then they've broadly done well as DSB says picking the best of the rest outside the Prem.

Hendrick, Wood, Tarkowski, Taylor all decent-ish fees with Gibson probably the only major failure.
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