January 2022 Transfer Thread

[BWFC_Insane]

I’ve no idea how someone would decide that a lad from almost out the league Rochdale and Gillingham would relegate Lee to the bench necessarily. Surely we’d be looking to rotate a bit more. I think it’s a stretch to suggest both players would be better than Lee immediately.

[sonicthewhite]

Probably the fact that I don't think that Evatt is buying players to wait their chance. More inclined to think that anyone we sign now is going straight in to the team, fitness/injuries permitting.

[GhostoftheBok]

A bit of a boring point, I know, but when we talk about goal potential with new signings the analysts and coaches won't just be looking at how many a lad has on his record. They'll be looking at the types and frequency of chances we create, what attributes players need to turn those chances into goals and then building models to identify undervalued players.

Wanderers create a lot of chances, but the majority don't suit a forward like Doyle. He missed a load of sitters, but he also didn't even attempt a lot of efforts that were at range or on an angle and he didn't get to a number of chances a quicker or more robust player may have.

We'll have looked at the variety of finishes Charles and Dempsey (if the Dempsey thing is genuine) have in their locker, even if they're not as reliable from that 12 yards directly in front of goal. Both players have a wide variety of finishes and good efforts - off both feet, various distances and angles, headed efforts etc - and we'll be betting that the increased frequency will mean they'll both score for us. Like with Dapo last season, where you could see he was on the verge of scoring quite a few and it was only a matter of frequency and marginal gains.

When you get to the top levels then records will typically be very impressive for new signings, but we're in League One. We're mostly buying players we think can be better utilised than they have been so far.

[GhostoftheBok]

I’ve no idea how someone would decide that a lad from almost out the league Rochdale and Gillingham would relegate Lee to the bench necessarily. Surely we’d be looking to rotate a bit more. I think it’s a stretch to suggest both players would be better than Lee immediately.

Depends who we bring in and what the balance looks like in midfield.

Some games will suit one trio and some will suit another.

Lee is a quality footballer, but he's a 33-year-old quality footballer and Evatt has spoken about the need to transform the side with youth, energy, running etc.

A midfield of Williams, Morley and Dempsey has real balance to it. I can see why people think that'd be the main 3, with Lee used when we need a bit more guile in the forward areas and not as much cover through the middle. I expect him to still see plenty of game time, though, especially when new guys are settling in.

[Prufrock]

Had a brainwave on how to demonstrate what my argument is (and I think Ghost too) and why while it's obvious goals for and against are vital, you can't look at one part of the pitch in isolation. It all has knock on effects.

Liverpool have cropped up as a blueprint for our front three off the ball but I think a comparison of their last two full seasons is instructive.

In 19-20, they won the league by miles. Scoring 85, conceding 33 and getting 99 points.

In 20-21, Virgil Van Dijk, Joe Gomez and Joel Matip, their three main CBs, missed huge parts of the season, meaning they spent large parts of the season with Henderson and Fabinho at CB.

They conceded an extra 9 goals (27% more), and got 30 fewer points. So looks like problems at centre back ruined their season. And there's definitely some truth in that. You're better at CB with VD and Matip than Henderson and Fabinho. However, their best run of the season came when Klopp changed, restored them to CM, and played Williams (19) and Nat Phillips (bad) at CB. He said he did this because weakening their midfield had trashed their system. Even though Williams and Phillips were weaker individually, the team was stronger because the midfield was back to full strength.

So far so arguable, and of course you still need good CBs.

But most interestingly for me, their goals *scored* dropped from 85 to 68 (20%). That was despite Mane, Firmino and Salah (arguably the best front 3 in the world) each playing at least 35 games in both seasons. In fact their attack got better in the second season as they signed Diogo Jota, another top quality player.

Yes you have to be good in both boxes, but what you in the middle dictates how many chances you get in each. A good midfield means your defence has to do less defending, and your attack gets to go more attacking. We haven't had a midfield, at all, in weeks, and weakened for months. Neither Henderson or Fabinho are goalscoring midfielders, the loss to the attack wasn't the goals they scored, but the platform they gave the front 3.

Fixing the midfield helps what we do in each box.

[sonicthewhite]

Had a brainwave on how to demonstrate what my argument is (and I think Ghost too) and why while it's obvious goals for and against are vital, you can't look at one part of the pitch in isolation. It all has knock on effects.

Liverpool have cropped up as a blueprint for our front three off the ball but I think a comparison of their last two full seasons is instructive.

In 19-20, they won the league by miles. Scoring 85, conceding 33 and getting 99 points.

In 20-21, Virgil Van Dijk, Joe Gomez and Joel Matip, their three main CBs, missed huge parts of the season, meaning they spent large parts of the season with Henderson and Fabinho at CB.

They conceded an extra 9 goals (27% more), and got 30 fewer points. So looks like problems at centre back ruined their season. And there's definitely some truth in that. You're better at CB with VD and Matip than Henderson and Fabinho. However, their best run of the season came when Klopp changed, restored them to CM, and played Williams (19) and Nat Phillips (bad) at CB. He said he did this because weakening their midfield had trashed their system. Even though Williams and Phillips were weaker individually, the team was stronger because the midfield was back to full strength.

So far so arguable, and of course you still need good CBs.

But most interestingly for me, their goals *scored* dropped from 85 to 68 (20%). That was despite Mane, Firmino and Salah (arguably the best front 3 in the world) each playing at least 35 games in both seasons. In fact their attack got better in the second season as they signed Diogo Jota, another top quality player.

Yes you have to be good in both boxes, but what you in the middle dictates how many chances you get in each. A good midfield means your defence has to do less defending, and your attack gets to go more attacking. We haven't had a midfield, at all, in weeks, and weakened for months. Neither Henderson or Fabinho are goalscoring midfielders, the loss to the attack wasn't the goals they scored, but the platform they gave the front 3.

Fixing the midfield helps what we do in each box.

What he said!

[Worthy4England]

I'm not sure anyone's looking at one part of the pitch...

Or that making the midfield better, is in any way a bad thing. I'll take that.

I suspect it's down to whether you think there'll be enough of a fix in MF to help resolve the misfiring up front and provide better solidity when we don't have the ball...

I think people understand "the plan." It's just whether we can get enough quality to execute on it. I don't see a huge difference between arguing that we can't afford defenders who can defend (sufficiently well) vs we probably can't afford all these perfect midfielders that we're needing.

If the MF we end up with is (for arguments sake) 10% below optimum where we want it to be in defence and attack, then you need to be able to compensate.

We're not going to know until they kick a ball, but given the data we're using we hopefully mitigate getting a complete wrong 'un.

[Prufrock]

Really? You don't think it's obviously easier to improve on Thomason/Johnstone/Delf than it is in Santos/Aimson. Even with everyone who's likely to be fit this season fit there is only MJ and Lee with senior midfield experience.

That's why midfield is obviously the one for me. Once you have two in there then you're onto the hard bit for this level, marginal gains. But midfield since October has been...whatever the opposite of marginal is

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Iles confirms we've submitted a bid for Dempsey.

In that piece Ilesy also says “The Bolton boss wants to strengthen his attack with two more signings and add more goalkeeping competition for Joel Dixon before the end of the month.”

Evatt:

There’s lots of hard work going on behind the scenes. We’ve agreed a fee and agreed terms with somebody who I believe is here today for his medical, which is going to be good news.

Another one in the building, providing everything goes okay, and then we’ve got to work really hard on bringing in two or three more, which we are doing.

There are conversations going on all the time. We are ready to go, but sometimes it becomes more complicated with the Covid scenario and people wanting to hang on to squad members as long as they possibly can.

Some of these players have been playing regularly in these first teams so we’re waiting patiently but there will be a time where we have to make a decision and a call on whether we move on or not.

For now, we have our targets, we are working really hard to bring them in. We know what the squad should look like come the end of January and what it will look like and it’s going to be pretty exciting.

[GhostoftheBok]

I don't see a huge difference between arguing that we can't afford defenders who can defend (sufficiently well) vs we probably can't afford all these perfect midfielders that we're needing.

Ryan Delaney was someone a lot of people from the "boo Santos!" crowd thought was a good defender. He was bloody awful when asked to play out.

Again, it's not about having Riquelme and Veron as a centre back pairing - but they have to be able to play. If we can bring in a better defender who can also play a bit, like Jack Tucker (nowhere near as good on the ball as some, but probably has enough to cut it and is a superb young defender), then fair enough. We can't have a non-footballing defender in the side, though.

Equally, I don't think we're looking for perfect midfielders. MJ isn't as good on the ball as Evatt would "ideally" like, but he offers so much more that he's vital to us.

No player needs to be perfect.

[GhostoftheBok]

The fact Marc says we want two more attackers is promising, DSB. Would surely mean curtains for Delf, though.

In an ideal world we'd see another striker and wide option come in and really kick us on.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

The fact Marc says we want two more attackers is promising, DSB. Would surely mean curtains for Delf, though.

In an ideal world we'd see another striker and wide option come in and really kick us on.

We’ll see. ilesy was surprised that what he’d thought for a week was “three more signings” has now turned into “at least three”. We know the gaffer’s garrulous and wading through the quotage waterfall can’t be easy. And of course situations change.

Delf’s curtains are not a problem. Take a bow and leave the stage, as others have. You know me: I want improvement. But I would say that with Charles, Baka, Dapo, Xav and (at some point) Izzy, I’m not sure we need two more. If they improve us, fine, but that would seem a lot of strength in depth for three positions - unless we’re thinking 4-2-3-1 rather than 4-3-3, but even then who’s the 10? Dempsey?

IDK. I can see us signing another plus maybe borrowing a youngster up there. But again, I might be looking at bolstering other departments (CB, LB). It’s all interesting and good to see us trying to strengthen. We need it.

[GhostoftheBok]

But I would say that with Charles, Baka, Dapo, Xav and (at some point) Izzy, I’m not sure we need two more.

Yeah, I agree somewhat; but at the same time it looks like Izzy will be out for a good while.

I think Evatt wants tools in his toolbelt and at the moment he only has 3 out-and-out wide players (Dapo, Xav and Kachunga) and 2 forwards (Charles as probably just a striker and Baka as utility).

If we got in Dempsey and Morley for midfield that still leaves us light in the middle (Tutte ain't it) unless Evatt intends to occasionally play one of those attackers as a '10'.

So you've currently got 5 in the middle and 5 in attack (assuming we get our known targets) for a good while before lads start coming back from injury. It remains light by at least two bodies.

Loans would make sense, but who knows.

[GhostoftheBok]

Also, something which has been bugging me is balance of options off the bench. If we get another injury we are back to sticking kids in there to give us cover in all areas.

If you start Charles, Dapo, Chunga, Dempsey, Morley and Williams you have Baka, Xav, Lee and Thomason for the bench....pretty good, but if one player gets hurt you are immediately short on options.

[Worthy4England]

Really? You don't think it's obviously easier to improve on Thomason/Johnstone/Delf than it is in Santos/Aimson. Even with everyone who's likely to be fit this season fit there is only MJ and Lee with senior midfield experience.

That's why midfield is obviously the one for me. Once you have two in there then you're onto the hard bit for this level, marginal gains. But midfield since October has been...whatever the opposite of marginal is

I have no problem whatsoever, strengthening any part of the pitch. But if the principle is we can do that so the three mentioned become reserve reserves, then I could suggest we do the same with Baps...

All comes down to whether you think big Ric with either Aimson of Johnston is good enough (even with strengthening the defensive capability in front and around them). That should improve matters. I'm a less sure than you that we can get sufficient improvement in more advanced areas to compensate for their defensive frailties...

It's too early to judge until we've got the full complement through the door.

[Spartan2]

Signing a LB that can do just one of; tackle, block crosses, win headers, pass forwards, tackle, cross or ideally tackle would be a massive improvement on the absolute disaster that is Declan John.

[GhostoftheBok]

Signing a LB that can do just one of; tackle, block crosses, win headers, pass forwards, tackle, cross or ideally tackle would be a massive improvement on the absolute disaster that is Declan John.

Have we written off John after half a season, much of which he's missed through injury?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

But I would say that with Charles, Baka, Dapo, Xav and (at some point) Izzy, I’m not sure we need two more.

Yeah, I agree somewhat; but at the same time it looks like Izzy will be out for a good while.

I think Evatt wants tools in his toolbelt and at the moment he only has 3 out-and-out wide players (Dapo, Xav and Kachunga) and 2 forwards (Charles as probably just a striker and Baka as utility).

If we got in Dempsey and Morley for midfield that still leaves us light in the middle (Tutte ain't it) unless Evatt intends to occasionally play one of those attackers as a '10'.

So you've currently got 5 in the middle and 5 in attack (assuming we get our known targets) for a good while before lads start coming back from injury. It remains light by at least two bodies.

Loans would make sense, but who knows.

Evatt wants two more up top.

We feel the attributes he [Dion Charles] can bring to us can really help us. We have seen things already in training that can really help us, his speed and pace in behind will give us a different dynamic, an alternative threat to the opposition which will mean more space for our other players.

But we know we need more. We’re probably two light at least in that area of the pitch and we are working really hard to bring the right ones in. We think we have found the right ones – we’re hopeful – but I know for sure that when we exit this window we will be stronger, and that is what it is all about.

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/1 ... oin-doyle/

[Bruce Rioja]

I swear I saw a quote saying Evatt wanted to sign a keeper this window from earlier…am I going daft?

I think he mentioned defenders, midfielders and attackers - but didn't hear any mention of keeper...

He was a defender FFS! Surely he understands the beneficial effect a decent keeper has on the defence?!

Did he not see how Cambridge's goalie performed against Newcastle on Saturday?

The guy's a knob!

[Worthy4England]

I swear I saw a quote saying Evatt wanted to sign a keeper this window from earlier…am I going daft?

I think he mentioned defenders, midfielders and attackers - but didn't hear any mention of keeper...

He was a defender FFS! Surely he understands the beneficial effect a decent keeper has on the defence?!

Did he not see how Cambridge's goalie performed against Newcastle on Saturday?

The guy's a knob!

I think the mention of a keeper by Evatt was "found" after I commented but I'm not sure it now extends to "buy a great one" - rather bringing a young 'un back off loan to act as deputy...