Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

[BWFC_Insane]

Depends on shape for me. If it's 352 then I don't think we've a natural 10, MJ really struggles (though he wouldn't be in my first XI) and I could also see a case for another striker (they'll all get goals, but I'm not sure anyone will consistently bag through the season)

If it's a 433 (either config) I think we're much more balanced. I think I'd currently pick Mj- Morley- Dempsey (but Sheehan and Lee both knocking on that door) and Dapo-Charles-Sad (but Dadi knocking hard too). I'd like a more energetic MJ or an upgrade on Baka I think.

I’ve seen enough to conclude that next season it should be a decision as to who plays up front or in a front three with Dad Bod. He’s clearly quality and I think first choice up there for me.

[Worthy4England]

Well, glad that's all sorted then!

[GhostoftheBok]

Pretty simple maths for me in a division like this. You do a Top 6 test.

You write down your best team and then you write down the best 11 in the league. Then you write down the second best 11 in the league and you keep going for 6 11s. You have a look at how many of your team's players made the cut by list 6 and anyone who didn't needs to be replaced fairly urgently.

In any case where your guy didn't make the cut by list 4 you look at those top 4 players in the league and see if any of them is a realistic transfer target. If they are, have a crack at them. If not you look for a player from outside the division who would come in at list 1 or 2 level - working on the assumption that weakening another side is usually better than just upgrading your own squad.

It's a very old school way of doing it, but it works at this sort of level. There are much more advanced ways of going about it, but this takes 10 minutes and can be done in the pub.

Trafford and Fossey are both top 6 players in League One, so getting them back would help us in that metric. I think we need at least 2-3 new players who'd make the best or second best 11s in the league lists if we're to have a realistic chance of winning the thing, as Evatt clearly wants.

[The_Gun]

I think just making playoffs is going to require four or five really good quality players coming in. Remember, we’re going to probably still have six teams that finished ahead of us remaining in the division, most of whom will likely get stronger, and three good sides dropping down from the Championship. Talk of winning the league next year seems fanciful in the extreme to me.

[GhostoftheBok]

Talk of winning the league next year seems fanciful in the extreme to me.

It always is for a club on our budgets without the benefit of a Championship squad, but we know that's Evatt's aim as it always is.

[Worthy4England]

I think just making playoffs is going to require four or five really good quality players coming in. Remember, we’re going to probably still have six teams that finished ahead of us remaining in the division, most of whom will likely get stronger, and three good sides dropping down from the Championship. Talk of winning the league next year seems fanciful in the extreme to me.

In the only league table that counts (the one since Jan 1). We'd be 4th on level games, 6 points behind MKD, 3 behind Sheff W and 2 behind Wigan. Heading for 87 points over a full season...which would be one more than last time we were promoted from this division.

170422.jpg (250.58 KiB) Viewed 688 times

[Prufrock]

Aye, don't think our performances up until Jan are particularly instructive for next season. I don't think we're far off.

[Worthy4England]

Yeah, we still.need to strengthen (so not disputing TG's notion that we need a few), just that we've displayed very good Top 6 form for a while...

I guess one of the unknowns will also be who Derby retain. They'd have been lower mid Champo without points docked...

Also, even if we get Traff again, should he get injured we don't look that bright.

Must sort out DF (incl wingbacks) for me.

Feels like some might need to go from players I like too, further forwards.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Interesting point that some good teams won’t go up, but it doesn’t mean they’ll be strong next year.

Lincoln reached the playoffs last season but were about sixth bottom last time I looked down that end.

There’s talk that Wednesday might be in trouble if they don’t go back up - finances questionable, could sack Moore, a right mess.

Will also be interesting to see how Wycombe and/or Rotherham react to not bouncing straight back. I doubt they’ll panic but there might be an overhaul. Ainsworth will leave eventually and the wheels have wobbled off Warne’s wagon.

You also imagine Rotherham (if they stay down) would this time be strong favourites, barring Derby. I suspect they’d rather be disregarded. Pressure would certainly be on.

[BWFC_Insane]

The big determination between going up and staying down is consistency. How consistently you can grind out results irrespective of form or injuries or weather or pitches.

And I think reading into closing form this season for us or anyone else is a pointer but it only goes so far. Evatt has to find a way to get a team out that can win at a physical set piece Burton side on a bad pitch in winter. There are too many of those sides down here to be able to succeed if you can’t consistently win those. Being better at playing football isn’t and won’t ever be enough. You need more in your make up, that’s our challenge.

[GhostoftheBok]

Over 46 games of a season the things that generally show are quality of players and the ability of the manager.

We have ground out results recently against good sides. The attitude and fight were there, but some quality was missing.

The most important thing to get this summer is just better players in key areas.

One important thing is a top quality goal scorer. If that's one of the lads we already have stepping up, awesome. If not, we need to sign one.

We probably need a quality playmaker to set up those chances. If that's one of the lads we have, great. If not, we need to sign one of those too.

We need a RWB who can create openings and that looks like being Fossey. We need wide centre back options.

Get that lot done and we'll be right up there. The spirit in this group isn't an issue.

[BWFC_Insane]

Over 46 games of a season the things that generally show are quality of players and the ability of the manager.

We have ground out results recently against good sides. The attitude and fight were there, but some quality was missing.

The most important thing to get this summer is just better players in key areas.

One important thing is a top quality goal scorer. If that's one of the lads we already have stepping up, awesome. If not, we need to sign one.

We probably need a quality playmaker to set up those chances. If that's one of the lads we have, great. If not, we need to sign one of those too.

We need a RWB who can create openings and that looks like being Fossey. We need wide centre back options.

Get that lot done and we'll be right up there. The spirit in this group isn't an issue.

Nothing to do with spirit. But we don’t have the right balance in midfield to go toe to toe against certain teams. Or at the back. You need more than pretty footballers. We have a lot of good footballers and not enough who can do the other side and stop the other team playing. Or muck in when needed. It’s not about spirit. But a midfield of Dempsey, Morley and Sheehan isn’t going to always be what’s needed. They won’t do the sitting in and heading it out repeatedly away at places like Burton which Wigan can do and have done. You need to win some tight games where you muck in against a physical side, match their physicality and then play from there. We haven’t done enough of that this season and it’s purely down to the balance in the squad.

[Worthy4England]

I'm sorta with you, but how many games has it hurt us in, this season? Stockport was appalling, Burton away (but we battered them 0-0 at home...Rotherham beat us 2-1 away and for all our gullibility 1-1 away v Wigan...

Evatt ain't going to set up the team for those games. He's going to try to stop 'em having anything...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

There is improvement to be made on defending set pieces. Doesn’t have to be against a specific “set piece team” for us to concede. Plymouth edged a close game that in a parallel world might have been crucial, because they scored off a corner. Haven’t got the numbers to hand but it’d be interesting to look up how many we’ve conceded compared to others in the division.

[GhostoftheBok]

But a midfield of Dempsey, Morley and Sheehan isn’t going to always be what’s needed. They won’t do the sitting in and heading it out repeatedly away at places like Burton which Wigan can do and have done. You need to win some tight games where you muck in against a physical side, match their physicality and then play from there. We haven’t done enough of that this season and it’s purely down to the balance in the squad.

Isn't that supposed to be William's job? Or are we saying we need to fill the midfield with that sort of midfielder in those games and give up the idea of imposing our style of play on teams?

If the latter, how much of the budget are we allocating to winning those games in a season? How many squad places go to players who might, in an Evatt side, be "ideal" players for half a dozen games a season?

I know these question sound sarcastic. They're not. If we can't find players who can do both sides of the game to the required level (which I agree would be ideal), how many muckers do we throw into a squad that wants to play the beautiful game?

[GhostoftheBok]

Haven’t got the numbers to hand but it’d be interesting to look up how many we’ve conceded compared to others in the division.

I'd like to know how we compare to the rest of the league since the beginning of February. I feel like we are scoring more set pieces and conceding fewer, but I've not looked at it.

[brommers95]

There is improvement to be made on defending set pieces. Doesn’t have to be against a specific “set piece team” for us to concede. Plymouth edged a close game that in a parallel world might have been crucial, because they scored off a corner. Haven’t got the numbers to hand but it’d be interesting to look up how many we’ve conceded compared to others in the division.

League One Goals Conceded from Set Pieces

198D42ED-646A-47AB-A01F-EFE91F7A5C43.png (282.83 KiB) Viewed 583 times

8th worst in the league. Not great but we’ve only ‘conceded’ 10.9 xG from set pieces, indicating we’ve been a tad unlucky and/or blighted by dodgy goalkeeping.


League One xG Conceded from Set Pieces

7D26170A-CE45-4D7D-A52A-906812214794.png (287.6 KiB) Viewed 583 times

Data here: https://dataviz.theanalyst.com/season-r ... on_id=2021

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Cheers, Brommers, interesting. Third-last column says we've conceded 139 shots (inc headers, presumably) from set pieces. Further analysis via the link reveals that the teams with the lowest SP Shots against are, in order, Wigan (1st in the real table), Rotherham (2nd), Wycombe (6th), McDons (3rd), Shrewsbury (17th but buggardly), Oxford (8th). That's a fair correlation with the real table.

I guess what would be interesting is seeing SP Shots against tracking against a metric which might not exist but which might be called something like Set Pieces From Which Opponents Might Expect A Crack At Goal - corners, free kicks within 40 yards or something. Obviously all opponents differ, but it could be argued that the top six teams concede fewer because they defend less; I'd still like to see us tighten up.

[TANGODANCER]

"Best laid plans of mice and men"New managers, new players, new methods, financial affairs, injuries, bad luck and lousy refs etc, and not the least, old father time marching on, will affect all the teams in the league, not just our good selves. No knowing just what's around the next corner (deliberate pun) As Ian Fleming said "Nothing propinks like Propinquity"....We can but put our trust in The Lord and practise shooting...

Meanwhile, beating Accrington is looming on our horizon...Happy Easter...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Having another look at the stats table - Pompey have allowed 151 efforts on goal from set pieces (the 8th most), but only conceded 7 of them (second only to Rotherham). That sounds like the difference a brilliant goalkeeper makes, and no team can rely on having a Bazunu every season.

They've also conceded those 7 from an xG of 11.6, which suggests very good goalkeeping, whereas we've conceded 15 from 10.9, which doesn't. Intriguing, as Ghost/Worthy ask (but the data won't let us answer), how much of that has improved with Traf v Dixon.