Deal or no deal? - Summer 2022 Transfer gossip!

[Prufrock]

I think the data on xG for set pieces is even more sus then it usually is. My understanding is that they recognise it's hard to score so any attacking header is given a low score (no doubt rightly so) so that number is made up of lots and lots of 0.0somethings. But they can't really differentiate between the quality of chances much beyond that.

At our place Rotherham scored a free header unmarked from a corner about 12 yards out. But it's xG was something daft like 0.07. You'd expect to score a lot more then 7% of those.

I had a quick look yesterday and was unsurprised we were about 8th worst for goals conceded for set pieces (though 20% of those came from the Burton horror show which i do think was a bit of a one off). We were also sixth best for goals conceded from open play (and surprisingly high for goals conceded from counter attacks, though they're small numbers for everyone).

[BWFC_Insane]

But a midfield of Dempsey, Morley and Sheehan isn’t going to always be what’s needed. They won’t do the sitting in and heading it out repeatedly away at places like Burton which Wigan can do and have done. You need to win some tight games where you muck in against a physical side, match their physicality and then play from there. We haven’t done enough of that this season and it’s purely down to the balance in the squad.

Isn't that supposed to be William's job? Or are we saying we need to fill the midfield with that sort of midfielder in those games and give up the idea of imposing our style of play on teams?

If the latter, how much of the budget are we allocating to winning those games in a season? How many squad places go to players who might, in an Evatt side, be "ideal" players for half a dozen games a season?

I know these question sound sarcastic. They're not. If we can't find players who can do both sides of the game to the required level (which I agree would be ideal), how many muckers do we throw into a squad that wants to play the beautiful game?

I think we lack that balance where you can pick a relatively robust midfield capable of allowing quality players to do their thing up front and in the number ten role. And you need such an option across a season in this league. When you strip away at our problems it comes down to a need to play really well to win games. When you watch Wigan or Rotherham they often were outplayed but won. And that’s our weakness. Our poorer spells don’t provide enough points. We all know that’s injuries to an extent. But to ride that you need that robust ability to win narrow games often in a scrap.

That’s where we lack those options and it’s not just archetypal games. We can’t and couldn’t go toe to toe against Wigans press because they were just quicker, stronger and superior in those areas. They might not have had the technical on the ball level we do but that didn’t matter in either game really. In the second game we hung in there and got a point with more or less our only chance. But to be thinking winning this league we need the midfield capable of going to a very good side and matching them in their press and physicality.

This is less about affording budget to players different to how Evatt wants to play and more making sure we have the balance that can actually do it. You can look at our games against top sides and some lesser teams and it’s clear we lack there. If we want to win automatic promotion then we need to sort that or we will have those runs where we struggle and don’t have the make up to adjust and still grind out results.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I think the data on xG for set pieces is even more sus then it usually is. My understanding is that they recognise it's hard to score so any attacking header is given a low score (no doubt rightly so) so that number is made up of lots and lots of 0.0somethings. But they can't really differentiate between the quality of chances much beyond that.

At our place Rotherham scored a free header unmarked from a corner about 12 yards out. But it's xG was something daft like 0.07. You'd expect to score a lot more then 7% of those.

I had a quick look yesterday and was unsurprised we were about 8th worst for goals conceded for set pieces (though 20% of those came from the Burton horror show which i do think was a bit of a one off). We were also sixth best for goals conceded from open play (and surprisingly high for goals conceded from counter attacks, though they're small numbers for everyone).

Usual response: if it's sus for one, it's sus for everybody. If xG really does undervalue set-piece chances, then Bazunu must have saved a million.

On to a metric you don't quibble with - 8th worst for SP goals conceded and 6th best for open play sounds about right. I just get the feeling (and I'm working today so haven't time to check) that the SP goals have made the difference in key "six-pointer" games this season. You mention Rotherham, I've mentioned Plymouth, think Wednesday scored from a corner, didn't Wigan score at theirs from a corner (maybe second phase)?

[Prufrock]

I'm not saying it undervalues all full stop. It undervalues some, and because it's worked out backwards, overvalues others to get to the right result. It doesn't tell you anything.

Second para "feels" right to me as well.

[GhostoftheBok]

This is less about affording budget to players different to how Evatt wants to play and more making sure we have the balance that can actually do it. You can look at our games against top sides and some lesser teams and it’s clear we lack there. If we want to win automatic promotion then we need to sort that or we will have those runs where we struggle and don’t have the make up to adjust and still grind out results.

I don't disagree that we'd like to have a big, aggressive player in the middle who can do that Vieira job. The question is the same it's been for two years: Are we going to sign a clogger who can do that or try and keep some of the ball-playing ability and take a bit less of the blood and thunder as a result? I think with Evatt it's clearly the latter. We can play perfectly well with lads like MJ and Dempsey in there and I think MJ is just about the minimum in terms of ability on the ball that we can get away with and still function.

I don't think any of Wigan's midfield options would stop us playing the game we want to play, so if that's your standard then those players are out there for League One. They were well out of our budget last summer, but may not be this time.

I love a midfield enforcer, so we'll see what happens. I'd not be shocked to see us stick in deeper midfield and get a 10 in, though, with the emphasis on aggressive "big man" play handed to the third centre back. Oxford's midfield isn't big, but it is dominant - mostly through ball-retention, but also through having terriers in there.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I'm not saying it undervalues all full stop. It undervalues some, and because it's worked out backwards, overvalues others to get to the right result. It doesn't tell you anything.

Are you saying if it was Santos going up for a header at the other end it would be 0.99 rather than 0.07? Cos if you can prove that's so, I might start to believe your crusade

[BWFC_Insane]

This is less about affording budget to players different to how Evatt wants to play and more making sure we have the balance that can actually do it. You can look at our games against top sides and some lesser teams and it’s clear we lack there. If we want to win automatic promotion then we need to sort that or we will have those runs where we struggle and don’t have the make up to adjust and still grind out results.

I don't disagree that we'd like to have a big, aggressive player in the middle who can do that Vieira job. The question is the same it's been for two years: Are we going to sign a clogger who can do that or try and keep some of the ball-playing ability and take a bit less of the blood and thunder as a result? I think with Evatt it's clearly the latter. We can play perfectly well with lads like MJ and Dempsey in there and I think MJ is just about the minimum in terms of ability on the ball that we can get away with and still function.

I don't think any of Wigan's midfield options would stop us playing the game we want to play, so if that's your standard then those players are out there for League One. They were well out of our budget last summer, but may not be this time.

I love a midfield enforcer, so we'll see what happens. I'd not be shocked to see us stick in deeper midfield and get a 10 in, though, with the emphasis on aggressive "big man" play handed to the third centre back. Oxford's midfield isn't big, but it is dominant - mostly through ball-retention, but also through having terriers in there.

The thing is I’m talking less enforcer. Less Claude Makelele and more Kante. Someone who can win us the ball all over the pitch. That is what Evatt ball needs. It’s what we lack. MJ can sit. But he can’t cover the ground. You watch the first half hour of the Wigan game and you see our limitations. We don’t need cloggers I agree. But we need midfield players. Conventional ones with good engines. To support the quality of Morley and Dempsey and Sad and Sheehan we need the Speed or equivalent to really get amongst teams and let us match up against them.

Obviously one who can muck in and head it out would help too.

A more robust back line also helps in those Burton games too.

[Prufrock]

That player is Dempsey.

[Worthy4England]

That player is Dempsey.

I think IE might see it that way. I have a sneaking suspicion Insano doesn't...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Had a look. We've played 19 since Trafford came in and the good run started. W11 D5 L3. So let's look at the 8 games we didn't win. And I blame five of them on set-piece poorness.

MORECAMBE (a) D 1-1 - fought back after going behind to a counter-attack. Dec dispossessed, second man runs into his gap and crosses, goal.

BURTON (a) L 1-3 - lost after going behind to three set pieces. 1st goal: long throw, lost first header, runner unmarked, goal
BURTON (a) L 1-3 - 2nd goal: corner, lost back-post header, goal
BURTON (a) L 1-3 - 3rd goal: corner, lost back-post header but half-cleared, recycled to other post, lost header, goal

MK DONS (a) L 0-2 - 1st goal: open play. their centre-back motors through our midfield, long shot parried, striker gets there first.
MK DONS (a) L 0-2 - 2nd goal: open play. Poor Trafford pass, picked up and passed to striker, beats Rico and scores.

MORECAMBE (h) D 1-1- fought back after going behind to a brainfart from Johnston.

PLYMOUTH (h) L 0-1 - lost to a set-piece goal: corner, back-post header, goal.

WIGAN (a) D 1-1 - fought back after going behind to a set-piece: short corner, cross comes in, goal

POMPEY (h) D 1-1 - fought back after going behind to a set-piece: free kick on edge of box, second or third phase (14s later), but lines never cleared

WEDNESDAY (h) D 1-1 - fought back after going behind to a set-piece: corner, back post header lost, secondary duel lost, goal.

I'm glad we're conceding fewer in open play (or at least fewer that cost us points). It's not a panacea and no team is impregnable but I do feel it's improvable.

[GhostoftheBok]

I was, once again, impressed with Ross Sykes today. I believe he has an option to extend his deal beyond this season, but he'd be an option for us at the back. 6'5", decent athlete and can play with his feet. Stanley have knocked off a lot of the (very) rough edges he had previously.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

He has an option, or they have an option?

[brommers95]

Stanley have an option to extend his contract by a year I believe. I’ve watched a couple of games of his recently and he is a good defender in terms of aerial ability, bravery and last ditch defending.

I wasn’t overly convinced with him with the ball at his feet though - seems like he wants a lot of time on the ball and lacks a bit of composure. Also not the quickest.

[Prufrock]

He looked like a donkey to me, but that's only one game.

[GhostoftheBok]

I wasn’t overly convinced with him with the ball at his feet though - seems like he wants a lot of time on the ball and lacks a bit of composure. Also not the quickest.

Certainly not as good on the ball as Iredale, but it's worth remembering he is only just 23 and I'm comparing his abilities now to a couple of years ago. I think he has the potential to play a level above this. He's developed very, very quickly - especially having missed a lot of last season. Obviously he's usually asked to hoof it by Accy, but he looks like he might be able to adapt.

Pace is an issue.

[brommers95]

I wasn’t overly convinced with him with the ball at his feet though - seems like he wants a lot of time on the ball and lacks a bit of composure. Also not the quickest.

Certainly not as good on the ball as Iredale, but it's worth remembering he is only just 23 and I'm comparing his abilities now to a couple of years ago. I think he has the potential to play a level above this. He's developed very, very quickly - especially having missed a lot of last season. Obviously he's usually asked to hoof it by Accy, but he looks like he might be able to adapt.

Pace is an issue.

Yep, still young so you can see why (supposedly) Championship teams are interested.

He’s not averse to marauding upfield from his RCB position as evidenced below (0:33 in), I just don’t think he’s a natural fit for what Evatt wants from his CBs. I remain unconvinced we’ll pay good money for him but I wouldn’t be disappointed if we did - lots of potential there like you say.

[GhostoftheBok]

He's on my list of possibles. Resale potential, physically there, local lad, former teammate of someone already in the squad, some experience at a higher-level academy etc.

As you say, I'm not sure what Evatt thinks of him and I have no idea what Accy would want for him; but I've kept an eye on his this season.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

One of the reserves trialists was 18-year-old Lucias Vine. Who he? Some answers here.

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/2 ... cias-vine/

[GhostoftheBok]

One of the reserves trialists was 18-year-old Lucias Vine. Who he? Some answers here.

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/2 ... cias-vine/

One I've never heard of. Appreciate the link.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

One of the reserves trialists was 18-year-old Lucias Vine. Who he? Some answers here.

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/2 ... cias-vine/

One I've never heard of. Appreciate the link.

You mean your grapevine doesn't extend to Aldershot U23s?