The Politics Thread

[BWFC_Insane]

You can massively overestimate "popular with the electorate". Massively skewed by the fact that genuinely ~90% of people are "don't knows" (not that they necessarily answer "don't know" but often it's a gut 20 second reaction) when it comes to everyone except Sunak. You can't just exclude those and pretend it's meaningful.

I think this is close. Most folks are voting for "who's going to fcuk my life up the least." It's why talk of progressive taxation ain't a winner. Wherever you are on the scale of earnings (not wealth), I think most people tell themselves they've worked hard and therefore earned it. Labour is making fairly arbitrary taxation noises, which isn't getting anyone out of 2.3trn debt.

I should say that I think by the time of an election the vast majority of people at least know who the leaders of the main two parties are and some sort of opinion on them. But the runners and riders in the early days of mid-term Tory leadership competition...yeah not so much.

I think I'm somewhere between you and BWFCi on taxation. My view is that the mistake Labour sometimes makes is that it gets focused on the process and trying to get everyone to agree that we should share and share alike. What they need to focus on is outcomes. If you have a heart attack, an ambulance isn't coming. If you break your arm, it's 13 hours in A&E. If you want butter, it's three bastard quid (and you were shocked when it was two bastard quid only two weeks ago!)

On the one hand I think that's pretty easy at the moment because everything is fecked. On the other it's difficult because the two main reasons are Covid and Brexit.

The first isn't the government's fault, but then the financial crash wasn't Labour's fault. Which is why I think outcomes is the way to go. "This is shit, vote for the other lot" is definitely a big thing.

Of course you do need to set out what you're going to do, but you don't need to persuade everyone to become a socialist. You need to persuade them you're a better bet for improving their day to day lives. What you'll do not why you'll do it is what counts.

The second is a bear trap for Labour. They're fecked if they get into relitigating Brexit. Avoid the word all together, and focus on outcomes. Here's our plan on how to work with the EU.

On tax simplification. I mean there's definitely some scope for it. Entrepreneurs relief etc are a bit farcical. But yeah I'm far from convinced on a flat rate. My own view is that wealth taxes would be more prominent, but they seem pretty suicidal with the electorate. That's a maybe a second term gamble, and we've only ever had one Labour second term!

You are basically writing out Starmers strategy to a tee here. Are you his advisor? Are you …….Mandelson?

[Prufrock]

Agree with most if this. I just think like your example of Entrepreneurs relief, there are far too many ways for people to not declare what they've actually earned and actually end up paying 10% overall tax on their earnings. Closing the loopholes will put a higher burden on the middle, but only on people who ain't paying their due anyhow...I reckon there's multiple coaches and a herd of horses driven through IR35...similar with the loopholes they created for consultants to pay 10% in the noughties, early 10's...

IR35 a good example of one that would put a burden on the middle.

There's plenty you could do that wouldn't affect anyone "normal". 90% tax on anything going to BVI or Caymans for a start. But everyone will know someone who has "benefited" from IR35 (though often not by any real choice anymore).

I do think a broader problem is that lots of things aren't that clear cut though. The complexity comes with lots of benefits but over a long time an industry of avoidance and more has sprung up and how do you sort that without making things net worse?

Trusts for example. Lots of good things about trusts in general, pensions would be pretty tricky without them, but they're also abused on a colossal scale by even the moderately wealthy to not pay IHT. But you can't just get rid of them.

IR35 - obviously self employment is a good thing, but it's taken a lot of time and effort before the tide seems to be slowly turning in the right direction there.

You often get a cycle where there's a big ticket idea to fix something. Then it takes a few years for the loopholes to be worked out. Then a tweak and a few years more. Ad infinitum.

[Prufrock]

You can massively overestimate "popular with the electorate". Massively skewed by the fact that genuinely ~90% of people are "don't knows" (not that they necessarily answer "don't know" but often it's a gut 20 second reaction) when it comes to everyone except Sunak. You can't just exclude those and pretend it's meaningful.

I think this is close. Most folks are voting for "who's going to fcuk my life up the least." It's why talk of progressive taxation ain't a winner. Wherever you are on the scale of earnings (not wealth), I think most people tell themselves they've worked hard and therefore earned it. Labour is making fairly arbitrary taxation noises, which isn't getting anyone out of 2.3trn debt.

I should say that I think by the time of an election the vast majority of people at least know who the leaders of the main two parties are and some sort of opinion on them. But the runners and riders in the early days of mid-term Tory leadership competition...yeah not so much.

I think I'm somewhere between you and BWFCi on taxation. My view is that the mistake Labour sometimes makes is that it gets focused on the process and trying to get everyone to agree that we should share and share alike. What they need to focus on is outcomes. If you have a heart attack, an ambulance isn't coming. If you break your arm, it's 13 hours in A&E. If you want butter, it's three bastard quid (and you were shocked when it was two bastard quid only two weeks ago!)

On the one hand I think that's pretty easy at the moment because everything is fecked. On the other it's difficult because the two main reasons are Covid and Brexit.

The first isn't the government's fault, but then the financial crash wasn't Labour's fault. Which is why I think outcomes is the way to go. "This is shit, vote for the other lot" is definitely a big thing.

Of course you do need to set out what you're going to do, but you don't need to persuade everyone to become a socialist. You need to persuade them you're a better bet for improving their day to day lives. What you'll do not why you'll do it is what counts.

The second is a bear trap for Labour. They're fecked if they get into relitigating Brexit. Avoid the word all together, and focus on outcomes. Here's our plan on how to work with the EU.

On tax simplification. I mean there's definitely some scope for it. Entrepreneurs relief etc are a bit farcical. But yeah I'm far from convinced on a flat rate. My own view is that wealth taxes would be more prominent, but they seem pretty suicidal with the electorate. That's a maybe a second term gamble, and we've only ever had one Labour second term!

You are basically writing out Starmers strategy to a tee here. Are you his advisor? Are you …….Mandelson?

I live to serve.

Even Mandy is now nervous about inequality and no longer "intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich as long as they pay their taxes". Backsliding coward

[Worthy4England]

Agree with most if this. I just think like your example of Entrepreneurs relief, there are far too many ways for people to not declare what they've actually earned and actually end up paying 10% overall tax on their earnings. Closing the loopholes will put a higher burden on the middle, but only on people who ain't paying their due anyhow...I reckon there's multiple coaches and a herd of horses driven through IR35...similar with the loopholes they created for consultants to pay 10% in the noughties, early 10's...

IR35 a good example of one that would put a burden on the middle.

There's plenty you could do that wouldn't affect anyone "normal". 90% tax on anything going to BVI or Caymans for a start. But everyone will know someone who has "benefited" from IR35 (though often not by any real choice anymore).

I do think a broader problem is that lots of things aren't that clear cut though. The complexity comes with lots of benefits but over a long time an industry of avoidance and more has sprung up and how do you sort that without making things net worse?

Trusts for example. Lots of good things about trusts in general, pensions would be pretty tricky without them, but they're also abused on a colossal scale by even the moderately wealthy to not pay IHT. But you can't just get rid of them.

IR35 - obviously self employment is a good thing, but it's taken a lot of time and effort before the tide seems to be slowly turning in the right direction there.

You often get a cycle where there's a big ticket idea to fix something. Then it takes a few years for the loopholes to be worked out. Then a tweak and a few years more. Ad infinitum.

Some reasonable suggestions, but why should you be able to "benefit" from IR35? It should be neutral. That's my point

I think businesses shouldn't be paying anyone in shares either. Sure the CEO can buy some, but after they've paid their full whack, thanks.

These are the types of things I think we should be simplifying.

[Worthy4England]

Both. I think earnings less so because many of the hoarders don’t have earnings to tax. But yes both. It’s clear the crude 40% higher rate is a) kicking in too low and b) doesn’t do the job so we need a different system that actually deals with the problems of inequality in 2022.

You aren’t going to do that by hammering the middle and I think that should change.

Oh right. We're trying to protect the middle whilst sorting inequality? Gotcha. Taking a punt here. You think you're paying too much and someone else should pay a lot more...

You talk about progressive tax system. It's already in place. You pay a higher overall proportion at 50k than 40k than 30k etc. At 12k, you pay about 1.5%..at 37k, you Don't suddenly pay 40% on everything, just the bit above 37k (or whatever today's number is). If the middle is 40k then they pay less overall tax as a % of earnings, than someone on 100k.

My point on earnings is, you can probably increase marginally. There wasn't a huge outcry at 50% top rate, but you won't be able to increase it enough to meet your objectives.

The problem with wealth is cute people hide it, so it's very hard to ascertain what it actually is, let alone tax it. You want to go after property? They don't own any, it's owned by an offshore trust...

This is why I'm more with Hobo, that cutting out all the loopholes is going to get you more...

No good god no. I would set a higher rate including my salary of 60%. But that wouldn’t win an election.

My point is about tackling the fact that we have a top 5% hoarding wealth and not adding to productivity. And I think there are ways to eat that a bit alongside some of the wealth and earnings immediately below it that is electorally popular without being seen as attacking the ‘middle’ which I still think is electorally a no go.

What I believe in and what wins elections are separate things in my head. So I’m not trying to advocate for champagne socialism or even a thing. Just that a party saying they are going to go after the financial hoarders, mega landlords and rip off bankers wouldn’t necessarily lose in my view. As pru says you talk outcomes rather than specifics of how it happens. Public like outcomes. Not specifics. See Brexit for example.

I'm pretty confident that when you add Income Tax, National Insurance, VAT, Council Tax, Fuel Duty, alcohol and tobacco taxes etc. That I'm comfortably over 60%...

[BWFC_Insane]

So this evening it emerges that one of the Tory leadership contestants and indeed the ‘current chancellor’ is being investigated by HMRC for tax ‘irregularities’.

That’s good then.

[Worthy4England]

So this evening it emerges that one of the Tory leadership contestants and indeed the ‘current chancellor’ is being investigated by HMRC for tax ‘irregularities’.

That’s good then.

We need someone who knows all the fiddles, to help catch the fiddlers! You couldn't make it up....

[BWFC_Insane]

So I see that the right wing press are trying to dismantle Sunak and Mordaunt’s own opponents are trying to kill her off because she isn’t some sort of raving anti trans gammon.

All going really well. It seems like the Tory party is lost to the extremes. Or at least the public face of it is. Will the MPs do the sensible things and resist the rabid extremists?

[Worthy4England]

Spad Shaggers. Has a certain ring to it.

T'other thing me owd mucker, is that Sunak also got a partygate fine. Can't lambast Johnson for it then ignore it for Sunak. Whilst lots of people might have thought it was all stuff and nonsense, I was pretty appalled by it. That they ignored their own rules, whilst people I know couldn't actually be with their loved ones, before they dropped off the twig.

[BWFC_Insane]

Spad Shaggers. Has a certain ring to it.

T'other thing me owd mucker, is that Sunak also got a partygate fine. Can't lambast Johnson for it then ignore it for Sunak. Whilst lots of people might have thought it was all stuff and nonsense, I was pretty appalled by it. That they ignored their own rules, whilst people I know couldn't actually be with their loved ones, before they dropped off the twig.

I’m not ignoring it. We have a group of highly unsavoury people and people who have dangerous and almost extremist political views.

Then we have a few like Sunak, Mordaunt and Tugenhat who are less extremist and a bit less worrying. None of them are exactly ideal.

You can probably tell I’m not a Tory so my hope is limited to someone who won’t continue with the divide and rule tactics of Johnson and who will at least try to be honest about the challenges ahead. I’m not holding my breath as it will be some rabid nutcase by the sounds of it who will lurch further to the right such is the rot in the Tory party right now.

[LeverEnd]

So I see that the right wing press are trying to dismantle Sunak and Mordaunt’s own opponents are trying to kill her off because she isn’t some sort of raving anti trans gammon.

All going really well. It seems like the Tory party is lost to the extremes. Or at least the public face of it is. Will the MPs do the sensible things and resist the rabid extremists?

Way I understood it is that she's now trying to switch sides in this particular branch of the culture war and score points with party members. However it seems she may have been lying about what she previously said and campaigned for, and she's been called out for it.
Her video seems to have pissed plenty off as well, she's no chance now.
We'll not get any of the more reasonable ones, especially since it's Tory party members who are choosing for us.

[nicholaldo]

So I see that the right wing press are trying to dismantle Sunak and Mordaunt’s own opponents are trying to kill her off because she isn’t some sort of raving anti trans gammon.

All going really well. It seems like the Tory party is lost to the extremes. Or at least the public face of it is. Will the MPs do the sensible things and resist the rabid extremists?

Way I understood it is that she's now trying to switch sides in this particular branch of the culture war and score points with party members. However it seems she may have been lying about what she previously said and campaigned for, and she's been called out for it.
Her video seems to have pissed plenty off as well, she's no chance now.
We'll not get any of the more reasonable ones, especially since it's Tory party members who are choosing for us.

She's definitely claiming to hold opinions she doesn't hold with regard to trans rights, but I think she's the one who will go on to win it.

Those pissed off the her campaign video are not Tory members.

[BWFC_Insane]

So I see that the right wing press are trying to dismantle Sunak and Mordaunt’s own opponents are trying to kill her off because she isn’t some sort of raving anti trans gammon.

All going really well. It seems like the Tory party is lost to the extremes. Or at least the public face of it is. Will the MPs do the sensible things and resist the rabid extremists?

Way I understood it is that she's now trying to switch sides in this particular branch of the culture war and score points with party members. However it seems she may have been lying about what she previously said and campaigned for, and she's been called out for it.
Her video seems to have pissed plenty off as well, she's no chance now.
We'll not get any of the more reasonable ones, especially since it's Tory party members who are choosing for us.

Yes she’s having to pretend to be as unpleasant as others to stand a chance because the whole party is incredibly unpleasant.

That’s the long and short of how thoroughly depressing it is.

It’s also maddening that an issue I suspect most people literally have never thought about is preoccupying a governing party plunging the country into recession. You’d think considering how badly the last 12 years have gone and the fact they have left us in a terrible place they might focus on that and not thinking how they can upset minorities.

[BWFC_Insane]

So I see that the right wing press are trying to dismantle Sunak and Mordaunt’s own opponents are trying to kill her off because she isn’t some sort of raving anti trans gammon.

All going really well. It seems like the Tory party is lost to the extremes. Or at least the public face of it is. Will the MPs do the sensible things and resist the rabid extremists?

Way I understood it is that she's now trying to switch sides in this particular branch of the culture war and score points with party members. However it seems she may have been lying about what she previously said and campaigned for, and she's been called out for it.
Her video seems to have pissed plenty off as well, she's no chance now.
We'll not get any of the more reasonable ones, especially since it's Tory party members who are choosing for us.

She's definitely claiming to hold opinions she doesn't hold with regard to trans rights, but I think she's the one who will go on to win it.

Those pissed off the her campaign video are not Tory members.

The ones after her are the ERG lot who influence the daily mail etc.

My bet is on Truss because she’s managed to stay quiet as the pack tear into each other. And she’s suitable useless and embarrassing for the Tory party to decide she should be PM. Pork markets indeed.

[nicholaldo]

So I see that the right wing press are trying to dismantle Sunak and Mordaunt’s own opponents are trying to kill her off because she isn’t some sort of raving anti trans gammon.

All going really well. It seems like the Tory party is lost to the extremes. Or at least the public face of it is. Will the MPs do the sensible things and resist the rabid extremists?

Way I understood it is that she's now trying to switch sides in this particular branch of the culture war and score points with party members. However it seems she may have been lying about what she previously said and campaigned for, and she's been called out for it.
Her video seems to have pissed plenty off as well, she's no chance now.
We'll not get any of the more reasonable ones, especially since it's Tory party members who are choosing for us.

Yes she’s having to pretend to be as unpleasant as others to stand a chance because the whole party is incredibly unpleasant.

That’s the long and short of how thoroughly depressing it is.

It’s also maddening that an issue I suspect most people literally have never thought about is preoccupying a governing party plunging the country into recession. You’d think considering how badly the last 12 years have gone and the fact they have left us in a terrible place they might focus on that and not thinking how they can upset minorities.

No, it's right that she clarifies (or attempts to clarify) her position on it in my opinion. It probably isn't an issue that is particularly high in the public consciousness but it's one that potentially has wider ramifications than I think most people realise.

[Prufrock]

I think it'll be Sunak v Truss in the final two. And close between them.

Don't think Morduant comes out of this issue well. She's on the record saying clearly contradictory things to what she's saying now.

[BWFC_Insane]

So I see that the right wing press are trying to dismantle Sunak and Mordaunt’s own opponents are trying to kill her off because she isn’t some sort of raving anti trans gammon.

All going really well. It seems like the Tory party is lost to the extremes. Or at least the public face of it is. Will the MPs do the sensible things and resist the rabid extremists?

Way I understood it is that she's now trying to switch sides in this particular branch of the culture war and score points with party members. However it seems she may have been lying about what she previously said and campaigned for, and she's been called out for it.
Her video seems to have pissed plenty off as well, she's no chance now.
We'll not get any of the more reasonable ones, especially since it's Tory party members who are choosing for us.

Yes she’s having to pretend to be as unpleasant as others to stand a chance because the whole party is incredibly unpleasant.

That’s the long and short of how thoroughly depressing it is.

It’s also maddening that an issue I suspect most people literally have never thought about is preoccupying a governing party plunging the country into recession. You’d think considering how badly the last 12 years have gone and the fact they have left us in a terrible place they might focus on that and not thinking how they can upset minorities.

No, it's right that she clarifies (or attempts to clarify) her position on it in my opinion. It probably isn't an issue that is particularly high in the public consciousness but it's one that potentially has wider ramifications than I think most people realise.

But the issue is mainly a fake fight between internet warriors rather than being something that will have real
ramifications for the majority every day.

Sport will sort itself out.

The issues are safe spaces and whatnot and the solution will be an accommodation that preserves rights but also keeps safe spaces for women.

But the actual issue and fight is as ever these days all about identify politics and getting one over the other side.

[nicholaldo]

So I see that the right wing press are trying to dismantle Sunak and Mordaunt’s own opponents are trying to kill her off because she isn’t some sort of raving anti trans gammon.

All going really well. It seems like the Tory party is lost to the extremes. Or at least the public face of it is. Will the MPs do the sensible things and resist the rabid extremists?

Way I understood it is that she's now trying to switch sides in this particular branch of the culture war and score points with party members. However it seems she may have been lying about what she previously said and campaigned for, and she's been called out for it.
Her video seems to have pissed plenty off as well, she's no chance now.
We'll not get any of the more reasonable ones, especially since it's Tory party members who are choosing for us.

Yes she’s having to pretend to be as unpleasant as others to stand a chance because the whole party is incredibly unpleasant.

That’s the long and short of how thoroughly depressing it is.

It’s also maddening that an issue I suspect most people literally have never thought about is preoccupying a governing party plunging the country into recession. You’d think considering how badly the last 12 years have gone and the fact they have left us in a terrible place they might focus on that and not thinking how they can upset minorities.

No, it's right that she clarifies (or attempts to clarify) her position on it in my opinion. It probably isn't an issue that is particularly high in the public consciousness but it's one that potentially has wider ramifications than I think most people realise.

But the issue is mainly a fake fight between internet warriors rather than being something that will have real
ramifications for the majority every day.

Sport will sort itself out.

The issues are safe spaces and whatnot and the solution will be an accommodation that preserves rights but also keeps safe spaces for women.

But the actual issue and fight is as ever these days all about identify politics and getting one over the other side.

It seems as valid an issue as any other to me, irrespective of whether people might be using it as a "culture war" issue. At least, I don't feel it's worthy of being dismissed as something that will resolve itself.

(I also think it feeds into deeper philosophical arguments but this probably isn't the forum for that).

[Prufrock]

Aye, I think it's important too.

This "cut out the divisive nonsense", "live and let live" is easy to say when it doesn't affect you. But if you're either a woman worried about access to your single sex spaces (which almost by definition are where you're most vulnerable) or trans and not wanting to be forced to use the male single sex spaces (same argument) it's clearly important. Live and let live isn't a policy.

[BWFC_Insane]

So I see that the right wing press are trying to dismantle Sunak and Mordaunt’s own opponents are trying to kill her off because she isn’t some sort of raving anti trans gammon.

All going really well. It seems like the Tory party is lost to the extremes. Or at least the public face of it is. Will the MPs do the sensible things and resist the rabid extremists?

Way I understood it is that she's now trying to switch sides in this particular branch of the culture war and score points with party members. However it seems she may have been lying about what she previously said and campaigned for, and she's been called out for it.
Her video seems to have pissed plenty off as well, she's no chance now.
We'll not get any of the more reasonable ones, especially since it's Tory party members who are choosing for us.

Yes she’s having to pretend to be as unpleasant as others to stand a chance because the whole party is incredibly unpleasant.

That’s the long and short of how thoroughly depressing it is.

It’s also maddening that an issue I suspect most people literally have never thought about is preoccupying a governing party plunging the country into recession. You’d think considering how badly the last 12 years have gone and the fact they have left us in a terrible place they might focus on that and not thinking how they can upset minorities.

No, it's right that she clarifies (or attempts to clarify) her position on it in my opinion. It probably isn't an issue that is particularly high in the public consciousness but it's one that potentially has wider ramifications than I think most people realise.

But the issue is mainly a fake fight between internet warriors rather than being something that will have real
ramifications for the majority every day.

Sport will sort itself out.

The issues are safe spaces and whatnot and the solution will be an accommodation that preserves rights but also keeps safe spaces for women.

But the actual issue and fight is as ever these days all about identify politics and getting one over the other side.

It seems as valid an issue as any other to me, irrespective of whether people might be using it as a "culture war" issue. At least, I don't feel it's worthy of being dismissed as something that will resolve itself.

(I also think it feeds into deeper philosophical arguments but this probably isn't the forum for that).

It’s not being used as an issue it’s being used as a wedge to divide people.

It’s one of the most complicated and delicate social problems in the country and no good will come of the obvious Tory need to use it as a wedge issue to define sides.

I also understand it’s important for some people. But I doubt it’s forefront of most peoples minds as they can’t afford their food or heating bills. So let’s get some perspective.

It’s not something that requires a side to be taken it’s something that requires some sense, empathy and calm.