January 2023 Transfer Window

[Worthy4England]

So all in all, about where I had us, pre-season (maybe a little in front), feels like the gap is large and with Jan activity, getting larger. Play-offs would be a result, for me.

Other clubs are taking the gamble that we won't (and shouldn't) take.

Plymouth know this might be the best chance they have for years. The other clubs involved are going to go bust if they stay down here much longer, so they think they don't have much to lose by spending.

We have to hope our people are just more talented (or harder working, better trained, etc) than the folk at those clubs.

I think if we miss out on the play-offs this season we'll also struggle next season, because it'll probably mean we've cocked-up an important window.

I'd rather stay down a Div sustainably, than go up bankrupt. No doubt about that.

I am confused as to how you're heading to the conclusion us missing out on the play-offs would make us struggle next season? There clearly isn't a baseline that no team regresses from as MK Don's have shown. The teams that came up are probably around where we'd expect them to be, one, struggling, one midway and one having a decent season. The teams that came down all in the top half. That's likely to be little different next season.

I don't need much convincing that there's a hefty correlation between spending and league position (albeit not always so), but that was never our business plan, as I understood it, we were finding gems in the rough and beating the opposition through better coaching and recruitment (as you mention) in our plan to get to the Prem in 5 years. I don't believe I've ever heard anyone say - Board or Evatt, we're going to keep up with all the Jones's

[Worthy4England]

When I hear of players "not being quite there," "a bit precious around criticism" etc. I worry that competitive sport, might not be their calling and actually (as we probably saw with Sordell/Maddison), might not help them much at all..

For what it's worth, I don't think it's anything like the clinical depression or personality disorders we've dealt with with other players.

That's great, so we can tell him to man the fcuk up then?

[TANGODANCER]

My first introductions to the noble game began with the mandate...

[Prufrock]

So all in all, about where I had us, pre-season (maybe a little in front), feels like the gap is large and with Jan activity, getting larger. Play-offs would be a result, for me.

Other clubs are taking the gamble that we won't (and shouldn't) take.

Plymouth know this might be the best chance they have for years. The other clubs involved are going to go bust if they stay down here much longer, so they think they don't have much to lose by spending.

We have to hope our people are just more talented (or harder working, better trained, etc) than the folk at those clubs.

I think if we miss out on the play-offs this season we'll also struggle next season, because it'll probably mean we've cocked-up an important window.

I'd rather stay down a Div sustainably, than go up bankrupt. No doubt about that.

I am confused as to how you're heading to the conclusion us missing out on the play-offs would make us struggle next season? There clearly isn't a baseline that no team regresses from as MK Don's have shown. The teams that came up are probably around where we'd expect them to be, one, struggling, one midway and one having a decent season. The teams that came down all in the top half. That's likely to be little different next season.

I don't need much convincing that there's a hefty correlation between spending and league position (albeit not always so), but that was never our business plan, as I understood it, we were finding gems in the rough and beating the opposition through better coaching and recruitment (as you mention) in our plan to get to the Prem in 5 years. I don't believe I've ever heard anyone say - Board or Evatt, we're going to keep up with all the Jones's

I read it as "struggle to go up" rather than struggle near the bottom. I.e. given we're in the play offs now, if we finished outside them we'd have gone backwards relatively and so start from a worse base next year, whereas if we're in this league next year you'd probably want to have had a storming second half of the season closing the gap to the top two ready to hit the ground running next.

Which I think is fair, albeit I don't think we're far away at the moment and so you'd still be looking at the final pieces of the jigsaw (albeit with two Prem loanee size holes to fill).

I don't think we're in an MK Dons place where losing a couple of key players would be enough to wipe us out to the other end of the league. Though given IE's track record on keepers it's a worry!

[GhostoftheBok]

I am confused as to how you're heading to the conclusion us missing out on the play-offs would make us struggle next season?

I think this window is largely about next season. The players we bring in have to make an immediate impact, but we are laying groundwork now that we'd otherwise have been doing in the summer. The windows don't exist in isolation.

If we don't do enough this window to stay in the top 6 I think it will indicate we've made mistakes that we won't be able to fully recover from in one window. If we are yet again in a position next season where we have to have a blinding January to keep up with the top sides, we will struggle to go up.

The (by the looks of it) 4-5 players we bring in this window need to go well, or at least most of them do, or we'll be scrambling like mad in the summer.

We're already looking at replacing Trafford and Bradley as key figures. When you look at last summer, who that we brought in has been key to us this season? Bradley and Iredale. End of list. Toal is growing into it now and I really rate him, but he's not been a main man until very recently (injury, sure, but the point remains). Beck is still working on it. So we signed 4 and 2 have been vital, with one starting to get there and the other learning his trade.

If we go into next season and we're asking the recruitment team to add one or two strikers, a 10, one or two midfielders, two keepers, a centre back and 2-3 wing backs for a promotion push then we're probably dreaming.

Replace Bradley and Trafford, plus add one more serious first teamer for an immediate impact? Sure. That's probably a reasonable task. Then a couple of others who can grow into it over a season as squad players.

[GhostoftheBok]

I read it as "struggle to go up" rather than struggle near the bottom.

Yes and sorry if that wasn't clear.

Everything I'm saying about how we are doing and where we stand is with the assumption that we want to be promoted to the Championship either this season or next.

I was unhappy with the summer recruitment not because it was bad, but because it wasn't close to good enough for top spot (the stated aim from Evatt).

I'm keen to see us have a good window now, not because I think we'll go down next season if not, but because we once again won't challenge at the top of the table.

I think the general rule for taking a club on a huge leap is 4 good transfer windows in a row after establishment at a new level. Not perfect, but good. So you go up a division, you scramble in the first window to get something that will keep you up and then you need Jan, Summer, Jan, Summer of good work to be a real force.

In the last three windows (including this one) we've made permanent additions of: Toal, Iredale, Randy, Sadlier, Morley, Dempsey, Charles and Bodvarsson. I think that's everyone. I'd say we may be on course to have had three good windows on the trot, in terms of team building for a promotion push. So far we've only really got one in there whose face might not fit, which is impressive going.

We need this window to work out and then we will have the foundations to built for next summer to be the one that changes us from a decent League One club into one that can survive in the Championship (meaning we can also get there if we don't go up).

[Worthy4England]

I am confused as to how you're heading to the conclusion us missing out on the play-offs would make us struggle next season?

I think this window is largely about next season. The players we bring in have to make an immediate impact, but we are laying groundwork now that we'd otherwise have been doing in the summer. The windows don't exist in isolation.

If we don't do enough this window to stay in the top 6 I think it will indicate we've made mistakes that we won't be able to fully recover from in one window. If we are yet again in a position next season where we have to have a blinding January to keep up with the top sides, we will struggle to go up.

The (by the looks of it) 4-5 players we bring in this window need to go well, or at least most of them do, or we'll be scrambling like mad in the summer.

We're already looking at replacing Trafford and Bradley as key figures. When you look at last summer, who that we brought in has been key to us this season? Bradley and Iredale. End of list. Toal is growing into it now and I really rate him, but he's not been a main man until very recently (injury, sure, but the point remains). Beck is still working on it. So we signed 4 and 2 have been vital, with one starting to get there and the other learning his trade.

If we go into next season and we're asking the recruitment team to add one or two strikers, a 10, one or two midfielders, two keepers, a centre back and 2-3 wing backs for a promotion push then we're probably dreaming.

Replace Bradley and Trafford, plus add one more serious first teamer for an immediate impact? Sure. That's probably a reasonable task. Then a couple of others who can grow into it over a season as squad players.

The thing is, this sort of narrative is probably true of all Clubs who don't go up (and aren't in a position to throw cash at it), yet have serious aspirations to do so. And for me, it's not all about just who we bought in last summer. Johnston, Aimson, Morley and probably Tommo all improved over the closed season. A couple look to have stayed where they were or gone backwards (thinking John, Santos, Gethin, Dapo etc.). And some are probably making up numbers (Sorry Izzy ), It's not like loans will stop should we get up a Division - I'd sort of expect them to continue to be part of the landscape.

[GhostoftheBok]

The thing is, this sort of narrative is probably true of all Clubs who don't go up (and aren't in a position to throw cash at it), yet have serious aspirations to do so. And for me, it's not all about just who we bought in last summer. Johnston, Aimson, Morley and probably Tommo all improved over the closed season. A couple look to have stayed where they were or gone backwards (thinking John, Santos, Gethin, Dapo etc.). And some are probably making up numbers (Sorry Izzy ), It's not like loans will stop should we get up a Division - I'd sort of expect them to continue to be part of the landscape.

Loans will remain important to add quality even if we get to the Premier League.

Like I said in the other post, it's about multiple windows and building a squad. It only takes one bad window to scupper you.

At the minute we're going into our 3rd window as a proper League One club (first summer as a promoted club is different) and we've not made any serious errors.

The only tricky dead-weight player we have on the books now is John - just because there's been an issue there, not on quality. If John would accept being part of a rotation and get his head down he'd actually be a really useful player to have around and save us some work. Then again, maybe we need his wages now.

I think it's reasonable to ask a recruitment team to add 2-3 serious players in a summer window, plus some others who can develop. I thought we'd be a bit up against it in the summer, as we'd not be able to really push this window; but happily I seem to have been wrong. We've invested on the the left and are looking to add significantly in attacking areas (per Iles and agents).

If we get this window right then we present Markham with the reasonable task of finding replacements for Traf and Bradley, plus adding a major signing who makes a real difference. If this window doesn't go well we could be asking him to replace those two and then add 4 or 5 on top of that (LWB if Williams doesn't go well, midfielder, 10, strikers) - that's if we can clear out the errors. It's not happening. It's actually harder to try and correct a bad window than if you'd made no signings.

If we do get this window right then we should make the play-offs fairly comfortably. If we drop out of the top 6 it probably means we've made serious mistakes.

[Worthy4England]

Don't disagree with any of that, particularly - just saying, that we won't get everyone right, that's surely normal for all teams? You get the odd one, that looks right but doesn't work for your team, some like maybe Sheehan who you think might be right (at the time) then they get a long term injury and the team around them moves forward, that will happen in varying degrees to pretty much all teams.

I think if we didn't make the play-offs from here, then we might start to hear some more intense grumblings...

[GhostoftheBok]

just saying, that we won't get everyone right, that's surely normal for all teams?

Aye, that's partly what I mean by "not perfect, just good."

We don't have to have a perfect window now or in the summer, but we do have to get most of them right. If we sign 4-5 this window I'd suggest at least 3 need to work. If we manage that I think we'll both get into the play-offs this season and also be set up for a good go at the summer.

Which ones are most important depends on who we sign and what resources we put into them. Iles has seemed to suggest we might spend decent money on a goal scorer and if we do that's probably the one that'll make or break us - as it's hard to see us doing that in consecutive windows.

Williams, I think, probably needs to work too. Otherwise we potentially go into the summer chasing 4 wing backs, including 2 starters who would absolutely have to work out for us to challenge.

[The_Gun]

just saying, that we won't get everyone right, that's surely normal for all teams?

Aye, that's partly what I mean by "not perfect, just good."

We don't have to have a perfect window now or in the summer, but we do have to get most of them right. If we sign 4-5 this window I'd suggest at least 3 need to work. If we manage that I think we'll both get into the play-offs this season and also be set up for a good go at the summer.

Which ones are most important depends on who we sign and what resources we put into them. Iles has seemed to suggest we might spend decent money on a goal scorer and if we do that's probably the one that'll make or break us - as it's hard to see us doing that in consecutive windows.

Williams, I think, probably needs to work too. Otherwise we potentially go into the summer chasing 4 wing backs, including 2 starters who would absolutely have to work out for us to challenge.

I haven't seen that, but it's interesting, if true.

I think it's fairly plain to see that a finisher is the major element missing from our current squad, but obviously these types tend to be highly coveted and difficult to acquire.

Ghost, I wonder if you would have any insight into which pools we might be fishing for this goalscorer?

When you say 'decent' money, I assume we're not talking Ipswich spending £1.5m on Premier League academy players, and my guess would be we'd be restricted to sub-£500k territory. If that's the case, I'd suggest that either we'd be looking at Championship players who have fallen out of favour, or players plying their trade at smaller (poorer) League One sides, or at League Two or National League level.

If I'm correct, that likely would mean there aren't that many viable candidates who we could be confident would be a significant upgrade on those already in the building.

[GhostoftheBok]

Ghost, I wonder if you would have any insight into which pools we might be fishing for this goalscorer?

Absolutely zero insight into any of our actual targets, mate. I am not ITK in any way, shape or form.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I don't think we're far away at the moment and so you'd still be looking at the final pieces of the jigsaw (albeit with two Prem loanee size holes to fill).

Workmate knows an analyst at a League One promotion rival (I won't say which one, just in case). So we asked what the opinion of Wanderers is. It didn't tell us anything I didn't know, but it's confirmation of what we've all been saying:
• Best player: Bradley
• Trafford will improve the higher up the divisions he goes
• Defenders are there to play football
• Good football team, just lacking a finisher

[The_Gun]

Trafford will improve the higher up he goes? Not sure I see the logic behind that for a keeper.

[Worthy4England]

I don't think we're far away at the moment and so you'd still be looking at the final pieces of the jigsaw (albeit with two Prem loanee size holes to fill).

Workmate knows an analyst at a League One promotion rival (I won't say which one, just in case). So we asked what the opinion of Wanderers is. It didn't tell us anything I didn't know, but it's confirmation of what we've all been saying:
• Best player: Bradley
• Trafford will improve the higher up the divisions he goes
• Defenders are there to play football
• Good football team, just lacking a finisher

Interesting they went Bradley as best player (and maybe a little wake up call to one or two). I think he's been good taking into account his age etc. But maybe a little surprised by that...

[Mar]

I don't think we're far away at the moment and so you'd still be looking at the final pieces of the jigsaw (albeit with two Prem loanee size holes to fill).

Workmate knows an analyst at a League One promotion rival (I won't say which one, just in case). So we asked what the opinion of Wanderers is. It didn't tell us anything I didn't know, but it's confirmation of what we've all been saying:
• Best player: Bradley
• Trafford will improve the higher up the divisions he goes
• Defenders are there to play football
• Good football team, just lacking a finisher

Interesting they went Bradley as best player (and maybe a little wake up call to one or two). I think he's been good taking into account his age etc. But maybe a little surprised by that...

I'm not surprised Bradley was considered the best player. Opening few games set the stall out for number of ball progressions compared to the rest of the league and he's pretty much settled down somewhat but is still managing it, albeit to a lesser extent.

Oddly enough I don't think we're as reliant on him as we were in those opening matchdays, so its more of a team performance as opposed to Bradley being the focal point. Reminds me of how Dapo dropped off somewhat when we switched to playing as a team instead of playing through Dapo. Dapo's come off the end of that period and looks as threatening, without being the main man and hopefully Bradley will do the same.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Evatt on Dapo absence:
“Dapo is not available Saturday to us, so we felt we would just utilise the squad which is available.
“We had a look at one or two things tonight, so that’s it for me.
“I am not responding to any rumours, I don’t need to speculate. My answer is very simple and plain: We decided to go with the squad that is available for the league this week, and that’s that.”

[brommers95]

Sounds like his exit is imminent. If we can get some decent dosh for him, it’s definitely the right thing to do.

Anything over £500k with some add-ons would be good business in my opinion.

[GhostoftheBok]

Sounds like his exit is imminent. If we can get some decent dosh for him, it’s definitely the right thing to do.

Anything over £500k with some add-ons would be good business in my opinion.

I think everyone is aware he's available at this stage. Whether it be Rangers, Hannover, Liege or whoever else, the fact he was left out might mean we've finally had a non-piss-take concrete offer.

All the clubs that have watched him in the past year can afford to pay properly, so we'll see.

[GhostoftheBok]

Evatt on a potential new signing:

There is certainly one more that we have identified as being really exciting and we are having to be a little more patient. As that evolves and becomes nearer to completion, you will understand why we are being pretty cautious. The next one that we want in the building, we have had some positive news on today so that will be developing all the time

Iles describes it as "the biggest bit of business that the club do this month", so that'll be interesting and no doubt someone none of us have heard even a whisper about.