League One, 2022/23

[BWFC_Insane]

That does not mean the wider business approach (if it is as you describe) is working. Because the whole 'invest in young players, sell for profit' model so far has yielded a sale of Dapo, arguably one of our better players, for £500K. Its not disastrous but it doesn't scream to me - yeah this will sustain a club the size of Bolton and allow us to be successful on the pitch simultaneously.

And the 'we're 5th' is great. But your thesis relies on our ability to constantly improve our league position within this business model. And that's something that effectively my long post questions. Where is the evidence that will happen? Where is the evidence that having got estbalished with a squad last season, second half, that we're improving on that? We've lost Fossey, Dapo and Baka out of that squad. We've arguably replaced Bakayoko with someone now. Dapo not yet. Fossey was a loan and we have another loan.

But I'm not sensing the ease of progress from where we are now. We've got money from Dapo seemingly not being reinvested.

What's the path to improvement from here for next season within the sensible model? The quality we need up front, in wing back areas, in goal and other areas to strengthen is funded by what sale? And how is that sale replaced?

Offer conjecture, demand evidence. It's an old song, but it remains fundamentally dishonest.

The only possible evidence of the future is the past being prologue - as is true in all things. Football doesn't have immutable laws for which we can offer proofs.

We have continually improved with the current set up (just as an objective fact, we keep going up the leagues).

When you ask for evidence that this will continue, that's what we have - a consistent record of improvement thus far, at this football club.

I'd suggest you'd need pretty strong evidence of your own to argue for a radical change; but your track record during Evatt's time here as been woeful. Players who "can't work" do work, styles which "can't work" deliver results over time, "non-league" players become key assets etc.

You're trying a less sophisticated football version of Zeno's Paradox and, as such, I point at the league tables of the last three seasons and say "I disprove you thusly."

I'm not arguing for radical change. I'm arguing that the squad needs strengthening now and we're better off getting established loanees or older established players than worrying about keeping back money for the summer to invest in the next 'project'.

Your argument is that we stick to a plan.

My argument is there isn't a viable plan because football doesn't work like that. We deal with the here and now with whatever resources we have. If sometimes that means taking a short term fix - then take it. If it sometimes means an Ian Marshall type, then do it. We can when possible sign a Morley or a Johnstone. But football isn't smooth. And sometimes you need to deal with the now, and not the ideal.

[GhostoftheBok]

I'm arguing that the squad needs strengthening now

I've been arguing for a stronger squad since the summer, Insane.

We went into this season with me saying the striker options were inadequate and you saying people would be scared of our attack and "how many more strikers do you want!?"

Lets not twist things to try and make an argument.

We are doing work now I wanted done 6 months ago. We still have to keep an eye on how that fits in with work that needs doing 6 months from now.

[BWFC_Insane]

I'm arguing that the squad needs strengthening now

I've been arguing for a stronger squad since the summer, Insane.

We went into this season with me saying the striker options were inadequate and you saying people would be scared of our attack and "how many more strikers do you want!?"

Lets not twist things to try and make an argument.

We are doing work now I wanted done 6 months ago. We still have to keep an eye on how that fits in with work that needs doing 6 months from now.

I also spent all summer saying we hadn’t got any wing backs. And that Iredale was not one.

So you know I was bang on.

We’ve addressed that to some extent now. But sometimes you need to be Harry Redknapp rather than Wenger in the market.

That time is now.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I think this is the longest post I've ever done so where's that kettle?

Well I for one enjoyed it and I think you’ve earned a brew mate

[GhostoftheBok]

I also spent all summer saying we hadn’t got any wing backs. And that Iredale was not one.

So you know I was bang on.

We’ve addressed that to some extent now. But sometimes you need to be Harry Redknapp rather than Wenger in the market.

That time is now.

I wanted Cadden, but in the end we missed targets and were where we were.

Now is the time to be reflexive, yes. Bodvarsson is out, Dapo is gone and our bench is as weak as vegan piss. Needs sorting.

[Worthy4England]

The argument isn't against what you're saying. (Or at least not in my case). I am confused as to where the Club is going - a bit, with the rider that we're probably a little above where I expected to be this season.

We are filling up, albeit maybe a little more slowly and maybe in less depth, than some might have anticipated, on "player assets." We clearly have a current need to use the loan market, but in that respect, we seem to like 18-22 year old development players - in general, these have done pretty good for us, we have Bradley, Beck, Trafford and Nlundulu (who I assume we're going to give more air time than maybe Beck). Last season we got a glimpse of Trafford, Fossey and Amaechi.

Where I'm not sure is whether what we have plus some 20 yo loanees will get us up, ever, as opposed to what we have plus some older heads plus maybe one or two 20 year old loanees, given that our expecations from the academy aren't very high (as you say)...

[GhostoftheBok]

The argument isn't against what you're saying. (Or at least not in my case). I am confused as to where the Club is going - a bit, with the rider that we're probably a little above where I expected to be this season.

We are filling up, albeit maybe a little more slowly and maybe in less depth, than some might have anticipated, on "player assets." We clearly have a current need to use the loan market, but in that respect, we seem to like 18-22 year old development players - in general, these have done pretty good for us, we have Bradley, Beck, Trafford and Nlundulu (who I assume we're going to give more air time than maybe Beck). Last season we got a glimpse of Trafford, Fossey and Amaechi.

Where I'm not sure is whether what we have plus some 20 yo loanees will get us up, ever, as opposed to what we have plus some older heads plus maybe one or two 20 year old loanees, given that our expecations from the academy aren't very high (as you say)...

I agree with all that, I think (I'm half distracted by a small child demanding I google things).

What I'll say is that if all we do for the rest of the month is loan some lads who won't be hear long term or have any immediate impact then none of us will be very happy.

Nobody wants us to say "We give up" this season and just try to pick up lads who might be decent next season.

The players we get in now have to be able to have a positive impact immediately, but some of them will also have to have a more long-term impact or we'll be buggered in the summer trying to go again if we don't go up.

[officer_dibble]

The danger in ‘giving up’ (or maybe not trying as hard as we could to get up) is how strong the division will be next year I guess.

[BWFC_Insane]

The danger in ‘giving up’ (or maybe not trying as hard as we could to get up) is how strong the division will be next year I guess.

You’d also lose a lot of the fan base.

I see an imminent danger here. We will take a massive crowd to Accrington who will let’s be honest expect us to win.

Yet we have no Dapo, no Dad Bod, no Baka. And the two attacking signings aren’t eligible.

One doesn’t have to try hard to imagine a niggle for Charles and we go into that game with no striker who is fit apart from pub team Kachunga. Maybe Elias will show his pace and power and lash a couple of first time hits in but I’d not hold my breath. And that should we lose it could see some pretty unpleasant reactions from fans on the terraces. Like Rochdale a few years back.

[officer_dibble]

That’s a point - we could do with a pizza cup striker couldn’t we!

[GhostoftheBok]

Any striker we bring down from the Championship will be eligible for the cup.

Evatt wants to win that comp and will be well aware he needs eligible players.

[BWFC_Insane]

Any striker we bring down from the Championship will be eligible for the cup.

Evatt wants to win that comp and will be well aware he needs eligible players.

Yeah but it does probably mean we are going to need to spend some money. Possibly some significant money.

[GhostoftheBok]

Yeah but it does probably mean we are going to need to spend some money. Possibly some significant money.

Yes. Most lads with 6 months left would cost us at least half a million to get them out early, then you have to factor in their wages over the top of Bod's.

The other issue is a lot of players won't drop at this stage of the season. Even with Dad Bod it was heavy lifting to get a deal he'd accept and he really wanted to be here.

We'll need almost anyone from that level to take a pay cut AND they'll lose a signing bonus from the summer. Those bonuses aren't like Prem money, but they do matter to guys with mortgages to pay.

Asking a player to lose out on a hundred grand or so (wage drop plus bonus) isn't a small thing. Some genuinely can't, given how daft many players are with money.

A loan from that level could be attractive at this stage, but then you're even more limited with who you can get.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Pompey appoint Mourinho!!!

oh no hang on, Mousinho. Carry on.

[DJBlu]

Pompey appoint Mourinho!!!

oh no hang on, Mousinho. Carry on.

Nearly dropped my brew then.

[The_Gun]

It's come to the time of season where I start to follow our competitor's results more intently. Last night saw a bad one from our perspective, with Barnsley hanging on to win away at Oxford and move within four points with us, and still with three games in hand.

I think we've probably got about a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs from our current position. Every dropped point from here on in is going to matter.

[BWFC_Insane]

It's come to the time of season where I start to follow our competitor's results more intently. Last night saw a bad one from our perspective, with Barnsley hanging on to win away at Oxford and move within four points with us, and still with three games in hand.

I think we've probably got about a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs from our current position. Every dropped point from here on in is going to matter.

Barnsley are already in a play off position.

We're 5th and surely have a better than 50/50 chance. Its not nailed on by any stretch but would be an extremely disappointing season if we slip out of the top 6 come the end. Winning the play offs - I'd say is sub 50/50 but we have half a season with new players to really get ourselves going.

[The_Gun]

Yes, but if we slide to sixth our position becomes more precarious.

Peterborough would also go level/ahead of us if they win their games in hand. Wycombe are not far behind.

Maybe we have a marginally better chance than 50% to make playoffs, but I would put it very close to that. It will be a hard run in, and I think we'll likely end up making or missing sixth spot by a couple of points.

[BWFC_Insane]

Yes, but if we slide to sixth our position becomes more precarious.

Peterborough would also go level/ahead of us if they win their games in hand. Wycombe are not far behind.

Maybe we have a marginally better chance than 50% to make playoffs, but I would put it very close to that. It will be a hard run in, and I think we'll likely end up making or missing sixth spot by a couple of points.

That would be failure. We have a favourable run in - we should on paper win most of our home games. 6 home wins and then we probably need 2 away wins and maybe a draw or 2. That would put us above the margins for play off spots.

[GhostoftheBok]

Peterborough have to match our record AND win 3 more games just to tie our points. Wycombe have to beat our record AND win two more games to catch us.

I'm not seeing the need to panic.