Snog, Marry, Avoid: Summer 2023 Transfer Window

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Interesting, perhaps, that Iles is wondering if Wanderers will go for Cole Stockton (free), Alfie May (1 yr left) or ex-Cambridge Mancunian Sam Smith (free). Not linking as such, just wondering. https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/2 ... r-auction/

Also interesting: Pompey boss says he’d like fewer loanees after club spent £750k on them last season - but acknowledges they can get a club promoted (eg Plymouth) and says they’d like “two or three”. https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/sport/foot ... es-4161147

[BWFC_Insane]

Interesting, perhaps, that Iles is wondering if Wanderers will go for Cole Stockton (free), Alfie May (1 yr left) or ex-Cambridge Mancunian Sam Smith (free). Not linking as such, just wondering. https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/2 ... r-auction/

Also interesting: Pompey boss says he’d like fewer loanees after club spent £750k on them last season - but acknowledges they can get a club promoted (eg Plymouth) and says they’d like “two or three”. https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/sport/foot ... es-4161147

Interesting musings.

Stockton on a free must be tempting for goals and also just a dimension we don’t have, that big striker who can hold it but also make something out of little to nothing.

May for me is too old and hasn’t played high enough for his age to warrant a big fee for us. I like him and think he’d add something but not sure he and Charles would be the answer and he is also someone who arguably is in between the 9 and 10 positions - maybe not ideal in either.

Smith I don’t know much about but age and stats are encouraging. Doesn’t help though when first YouTube compilation you stumble on is full of deflected goals and mis hit finishes that somehow go in.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Aye. May is nine months older than Stockton and would cost a fee, although Ilesy notes that Bosman strikers can ask higher wages (and strikers get paid the most).

I do wonder if we need a striker that’s more of a link man, to drop off and create. That feels like May but I completely get the point about Stockton adding physicality. Not sure he’s a “knitter-together” but then it’s hard to tell with Morecambe.

Smith sounds more the demographic profile (younger, room to grow) but we have to believe any players we sign could do a job a division up. TBF to May the lower-league-only criticism could also be levelled at Stockton. Move up to someone who’s played well up there and suddenly it’s a seven-figure fee.

The other thing is more tea leaf-reading. I often get the feeling Ilesy doesn’t write something like this unless he feels (or knows) something is brewing. Without getting into conspiracy theory, sometimes managers can persuade journalists to write (wittingly or otherwise) stories that can cover trails and divert attention. Helps drive down prices.

[Worthy4England]

Indeed - One of the musings around our goals or lack thereof, is whether it's "supply" or "the ability to convert" and it feels like we're talking about May as a link man (sorta maybe doesn't score as many) rather than a scorer (Stockton) - May scored 20 goals last season. Stockton 11. He also created more chances, more assists etc. So I think by last year's measurements, the thing Stockton has that May doesn't is "big"...

I think it's probably fair to say that we'd probably on last season rate Dion as our best striker - let's be fair, he didn't have much competition - but did well and became that 20 goal striker. After that it get's varying degrees of murky. For me, Bod would probably be second in line on what we've seen him do, but do we really think Evatt wants to play with a main combo of Dion and Bod? Evidence from when Bod was fit, was that Evatt was starting him "situationally" as a starter. He was only a starter 8 times. So do we think that would change with Stockton in the ranks? I genuinely don't know whether that's was Evatt wants to do.

Stockton probably increases our chances with his noggin, but then if we're putting balls in onto Stockton's head, we're probably taking balls out that Charles would be more comfortable with...

Whilst I think we need to retain that hold up the ball option, I'm not sure, if that's where we see Bod, that we'd double up on that role.

[TANGODANCER]

I bow to the more knowledgeable, but.. Looking through notable positions we have lost/are losing, (Dapo, possibly Sheehan, Fossy, Bradley, Isgrove etc etc, and not forgetting the impact of the loss of James Trafford may have on our defensive abilities,a midfield general and some creative talent seems more important to address than just a striker right now. Oh for a Campo, Paul Scholes etc.

[Worthy4England]

I bow to the more knowledgeable, but.. Looking through notable positions we have lost/are losing, (Dapo, possibly Sheehan, Fossy, Bradley, Isgrove etc etc, and not forgetting the impact of the loss of James Trafford may have on our defensive abilities,a midfield general and some creative talent seems more important to address than just a striker right now. Oh for a Campo, Paul Scholes etc.

I don't think anyone's overlooking that we need GK's (we've lost 2), RWB's etc. TD, but until we're actually linked with any, there's not much to discuss outside of possibilities being put forwards by DSB, Ghost and Brommers (mainly).

The Dapo thing, he said in interview that his "position" - winger - had gone from the team, which is correct and left him being tried out in a number of positions he didn't quite fit - so 10, LWB etc. Probably the same can be said of Sadlier (to a lesser extent maybe).

As it stands - we're "assuming" Dion has another season as good as this one, and that one of Bod or Vik will come to the party. So there is as it stands a hole, maybe a couple to fill, up front as Kacha has gone and N'lundulu also. So they all need work mate.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Indeed - One of the musings around our goals or lack thereof, is whether it's "supply" or "the ability to convert" and it feels like we're talking about May as a link man (sorta maybe doesn't score as many) rather than a scorer (Stockton) - May scored 20 goals last season. Stockton 11. He also created more chances, more assists etc. So I think by last year's measurements, the thing Stockton has that May doesn't is "big"...

Stockton also went months on end without scoring before a late splurge just before he became a freebie. Scored his first league goal at the 16th attempt on Dec 2; one goal in Jan, one in Feb, one in March and then seven in the last four games. <scratches chin>

Stockton probably increases our chances with his noggin, but then if we're putting balls in onto Stockton's head, we're probably taking balls out that Charles would be more comfortable with...

Whilst I think we need to retain that hold up the ball option, I'm not sure, if that's where we see Bod, that we'd double up on that role.

Yeah. Clearly we want Bod and we have Ade. I assume bought Ade partly to hold the ball up, and we know that Bod can drop and link. I assume we hoped Big Dan could do both, and I think he could, but I don't know if he will.

[Worthy4England]

Yeah. The only real question for me is whether Vik was "the chosen one" or just the best one for Evatt, given what we had to spend. But I don't think we gave him 3 1/2 year deal, just on the off-chance he boosted us up the League between Jan and May...

[The_Gun]

I wonder how long we'll give Sheehan and Dad Bod to make their minds up before we move on? I suppose there might be a bit of back-and-forth regarding wages and contract lengths, but we've got a big recruitment job on our hands even if they do re-sign, so you'd think we'd need to know fairly sharpish if we need another two new players.

[Worthy4England]

I wonder how long we'll give Sheehan and Dad Bod to make their minds up before we move on? I suppose there might be a bit of back-and-forth regarding wages and contract lengths, but we've got a big recruitment job on our hands even if they do re-sign, so you'd think we'd need to know fairly sharpish if we need another two new players.

I suspect they will have had an idea of what they were going to offer and hopefully made plans accordingly. I doubt it will be lost on them, that the job is two bodies more, in the event they don't re-sign...

[The_Gun]

Aye yeah, but things move fast, Worthy old chap. We might have players in mind as replacements for those two, but if they're any good then they might not be available for too long...

[Worthy4England]

Aye yeah, but things move fast, Worthy old chap. We might have players in mind as replacements for those two, but if they're any good then they might not be available for too long...

Oh - with you all the way mate - I would hope they've been tapping people up for months...

[BWFC_Insane]

The thing with Stockton is he’s a big lad but he scores spectacular goals. And solo goals. He’s a type we definitely don’t have. Give it the striker and see if he makes something happen.

I don’t think we’d go for Stockton now - I think the ship sailed.

But if we compare their league one careers Stockton averages one ever 3.4 games, Vic is over every 5.

[GhostoftheBok]

Stockton, despite his goal returns swinging all over the place, is very consistent in terms of his shots to goals rate. He averages about 20% conversion. His best season was about 25%.

Dion, profligate and wasteful little Dion, has averaged about 25% over the last 3 seasons and his best is over 27% (this season)

Despite that, Dion and Stockton are (from memory, so could be wrong) on the same non-pen goals this season at 11.

That probably says that whoever we get in is going to need better service. It probably also says that anyone who thinks Dion isn't efficient enough isn't going to like Stockton.

Adeboyejo? Oh yeah, him. 32.5% conversion rate this season vs Stockton's 21%. 12 non-penalty goals vs the 11 of the other two. The much-vaunted Clark Harris? 25% conversion rate. Yes, he scored more than Vik - but he took 100 shots to Vik's 43 and scored 5 pens to 2. This is Vik's second season where his conversion rate has exceeded 30%. Clark Harris hits the target less often per shot than either Dion or Vik...he's just in a really creative team. That's one reason nobody has spent money on Clark Harris previously, despite Posh being willing to sell.

If we accept that we need better service for any striker we get in, then the player most likely to put better service in the back of the net is Vik and it's not really close.

If we want to sign a player who beats our strikers on that basis I think the only choice in the entire league is Colby Bishop and he appears to be happy (and very well paid).

As to the "Vik's not good enough with the ball" his dribble success is higher than any of those other players. His first touch is about on a par with Dion and when you compare types of passes received he's a bit better on that score than Clark Harris and MUCH better than Stockton. Overall Clark Harris miscontrols less often, but when you compare balls into feet he's worse than Dion and Vik. Vik also has better "assist conversion" than any of them.

Now that's not to say we shouldn't sign any of these players. Nor am I saying they wouldn't score goals for us. People might want to mindful of their expectations, though. We have two forwards at the club who some fans slate for being bad technical players and statistically they are both better than the "improvements" people want to buy. They are also seen as wasteful in front of goal, but they finish better than the improvements being suggested.

People can argue about movement, nouse, etc but these lads are going to mess up their touches and miss chances too. Hopefully people don't get as upset when they do.

[Worthy4England]

The thing with Stockton is he’s a big lad but he scores spectacular goals. And solo goals. He’s a type we definitely don’t have. Give it the striker and see if he makes something happen.

I don’t think we’d go for Stockton now - I think the ship sailed.

But if we compare their league one careers Stockton averages one ever 3.4 games, Vic is over every 5.

I think one of the things we missed, is as you say, the ability to get one when it's not working...A sort of Bod, Baka, King Arthur equivalent but probably someone who can do that off the bench. Baka grabbed 10 off the bench (mainly) the season before last - that's one short of Stockton, who'd expect to start. Whilst we might not have missed Baka based on this years showing, we sure as hell could've done with the 10 goals from the season prior...we were 12 short of last year's tally...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

If we want to sign a player who beats our strikers on that basis I think the only choice in the entire league is Colby Bishop and he appears to be happy (and very well paid).

And apparently targeted by Ipswich.

[BWFC_Insane]

The thing with Stockton is he’s a big lad but he scores spectacular goals. And solo goals. He’s a type we definitely don’t have. Give it the striker and see if he makes something happen.

I don’t think we’d go for Stockton now - I think the ship sailed.

But if we compare their league one careers Stockton averages one ever 3.4 games, Vic is over every 5.

I think one of the things we missed, is as you say, the ability to get one when it's not working...A sort of Bod, Baka, King Arthur equivalent but probably someone who can do that off the bench. Baka grabbed 10 off the bench (mainly) the season before last - that's one short of Stockton, who'd expect to start. Whilst we might not have missed Baka based on this years showing, we sure as hell could've done with the 10 goals from the season prior...we were 12 short of last year's tally...

Yeah. The thing that I like on Stockton is the sorts he scores. It’s not so many tap ins.

We can find a lot of strikers who can score if given 3 or 4 chances a game but we don’t create that number and we also don’t have a striker who can create something for themselves. I doubt we sign Stockton but for me as you say we need someone who can do something different up front.

No just signing another player who needs early service and when they don’t score any or many the excuse of ‘well they aren’t getting the right service’ is trotted out.

He may well get better but I’m suspicious that Vic will ever really work in an Evatt side. Maybe he will. Be good if he did.

[BWFC_Insane]

The interesting thing from Iles’ piece is like I he expects us to invest in a striker who isn’t Nlundulu this summer. I certainly hope we do.

[The_Gun]

I agree with the sentiment that creativity/chance creation is what we're lacking, rather than finishers up top. If JDB re-signs I'd be happy with him, Charles and Vic as our core rotation, with perhaps a younger, quicker prospect being brought in as a back-up and longer term project.

I actually hope we don't spend on a striker, Insano, because I think there are other areas of the squad where our budget would be much better directed.

[Worthy4England]

A screengrab for Ghosty!

I added May, just because he was mentioned earlier

Screengrab.jpg (191.94 KiB) Viewed 818 times