Snog, Marry, Avoid: Summer 2023 Transfer Window

[GhostoftheBok]

Perhaps we could start coming up with the right wing backs who can make that difference for us? Pace. Running. Quality delivery. A record of doing it too.

So who is out there?

I quite like that lad Cogley at Tranmere.

[Worthy4England]

I've just looked at Chaplin's goals reel from last season. Not sure his chances were noticeably easier than ours..like most strikers there's a couple of gimmies, but aside from that...dunno..

We'll have to disagree there, but equally we're talking about volume. Highlight reels don't show you the misses. Ipswich created more chances and they also took 261 more shots than we did (related, I'd suggest). Chaplin took 158 shots vs Dion's 78. Dion put 47.4% on target to Chaplin's 33.5%. Ladapo closer to Dion with 46% on target having taken 102 shots.

I thought the conversation was Chaplin's goals were gimmies based on much better service? I'm not seeing that - quite a lot he had a fair bit to do...

[BWFC_Insane]

Perhaps we could start coming up with the right wing backs who can make that difference for us? Pace. Running. Quality delivery. A record of doing it too.

So who is out there?

I quite like that lad Cogley at Tranmere.

You know what I mean. Who can we spend some money on instead of Wilson?

[GhostoftheBok]

I thought the conversation was Chaplin's goals were gimmies based on much better service? I'm not seeing that - quite a lot he had a fair bit to do...

He received the ball in space within that "red zone", "danger cone", "optimal triangle" (choose your term) that managers like to talk about. Not everything has to be a tap-in from 4 yards to be a good chance. He also got a far greater volume of those kinds of chances, meaning you're only looking at the ones he finished vs the many he missed.

If what you want to say is "I've seen our lot miss those" then so have I. I've also seen Chaplin miss a load of them. They remain very good openings.

For both Ladapo and Chaplin the majority of their goals came when they received the ball within that triangle that extends from the goal posts out to just beyond the edge of the 18 yard box.

I'm just watching a Chaplin compilation back now. Like I said, it's hardly anything from outside those positions. I'm not sure what you're seeing there.

[Worthy4England]

What I'm suggesting is a reasonable proportion of our "chances" felt to be in similar positions (those pull backs) but most of our striker contrived to hit the defender with the resulting shot.

[GhostoftheBok]

You know what I mean. Who can we spend some money on instead of Wilson?

I was teasing.

Unless something changed whilst I was making dinner Dabo is still available, but I'm a bit meh on him.

Josh Key looks to have agreed terms with Swansea, though that one might end up at tribunal. It's possible that we could duck in and pay Exeter's asking price, but you'd imagine he's set on that move.

Thinking outside the box I'd say Carlos Mendes Gomes would work. He's not a fullback, but he is a winger who will do the work you need defensively to play as an attacking wingback. He has the one-on-one skills we need and has shown what he can offer in the final third. He has played wingback before in his career, on both flanks.

Looking at the more "runner and tackler who can create" type you've got Shaun Rooney at Fleetwood. Same goes for our friend Peter Kioso. Also Ryan Strain of St Mirren.

More fancy dan type wingback options (with some game time to them) would include someone like David Ayiboye.

I think Remeao Hutton deserves a shot higher up the divisions, as does Luke Bolton. The most talented a division down is Junior Tchamadeu, but he's probably too raw for our needs right now.

Going over to Europe there's Obermair at Paderborn. Was at Bayern and has worked his way up through the German pyramid. Personally think he's hugely underrated in Germany and would cruise League One. Genuinely two footed and comfortable on either flank. I think he's 27 though, now, so probably on the end of the age range we'd be prepared to spend money on.

We're a league one club. There are a lot.

[GhostoftheBok]

What I'm suggesting is a reasonable proportion of our "chances" felt to be in similar positions (those pull backs) but most of our striker contrived to hit the defender with the resulting shot.

I know, but I'm pointing out the highlight reels don't show the 3 he missed for every one he put in.

[Worthy4England]

What I'm suggesting is a reasonable proportion of our "chances" felt to be in similar positions (those pull backs) but most of our striker contrived to hit the defender with the resulting shot.

I know, but I'm pointing out the highlight reels don't show the 3 he missed for every one he put in.

Well, no. But then again our strikers highlight reels wouldn't show that either. It's not Dion, really, who we've got questions about, it's whoever is up there with him.

[GhostoftheBok]

Well, no. But then again our strikers highlight reels wouldn't show that either. It's not Dion, really, who we've got questions about, it's whoever is up there with him.

Right, but the point being made was that Ipswich weren't winning games because their strikers were scoring worldies. They were putting the ball in regularly because they got loads of good quality chances.

Our lot missed chances too, but they got far fewer of them. Misses matter more to us, because we created so little last season.

The fact he "took that well" matters, but Dion et al also took some well and if they'd had nearly 100% more efforts on goal (as Chappers did vs Dion) you'd think maybe they'd be sitting higher up the scoring charts. The Ladapo comparison works better, as he and Dion were tasked with taking up similar positions in the box, but still.

I rate Chaplin. He's a delightful little player, but he's not levels and levels above anything we have on the books. He's just in a really creative team.

Ladapo and Chaplin in our team last season struggle to break double figures. As they both did the previous season.

[BWFC_Insane]

There must be some stats on conversion rate or something we can look at?

[GhostoftheBok]

There must be some stats on conversion rate or something we can look at?

Off the top of my head Chaplin was at almost bang on 28%, a hair below 28% for Dion and Ladapo at about 25%. Victor at around 34%, second only to Colby Bishop who was over 35%.

When you adjust for shot position it gets even better for our guys and Bishop drops off quite a bit, probably because of the number of times he nodded in a set piece.

We sign players based largely on the data and Markham knows what he's doing in terms of modelling, so you'd expect our guys to compare well when you try to adjust and create apples to apples mapping.

[truewhite15]

There must be some stats on conversion rate or something we can look at?

Off the top of my head Chaplin was at almost bang on 28%, a hair below 28% for Dion and Ladapo at about 25%. Victor at around 34%, second only to Colby Bishop who was over 35%.

When you adjust for shot position it gets even better for our guys and Bishop drops off quite a bit, probably because of the number of times he nodded in a set piece.

We sign players based largely on the data and Markham knows what he's doing in terms of modelling, so you'd expect our guys to compare well when you try to adjust and create apples to apples mapping.

No, Ghost, you've got it all wrong. You're suppsed to provide stats that PROVE Insane's point, not the other way around!!

[Worthy4England]

Well, no. But then again our strikers highlight reels wouldn't show that either. It's not Dion, really, who we've got questions about, it's whoever is up there with him.

Right, but the point being made was that Ipswich weren't winning games because their strikers were scoring worldies. They were putting the ball in regularly because they got loads of good quality chances.

Our lot missed chances too, but they got far fewer of them. Misses matter more to us, because we created so little last season.

The fact he "took that well" matters, but Dion et al also took some well and if they'd had nearly 100% more efforts on goal (as Chappers did vs Dion) you'd think maybe they'd be sitting higher up the scoring charts. The Ladapo comparison works better, as he and Dion were tasked with taking up similar positions in the box, but still.

I rate Chaplin. He's a delightful little player, but he's not levels and levels above anything we have on the books. He's just in a really creative team.

Ladapo and Chaplin in our team last season struggle to break double figures. As they both did the previous season.

I'm not too worried about Dion (albeit we wouldn't want his to have a quiet one, next year). We know Bod can score if he's fit. I'm a lot less certain about Dan and Cameron if they'd been presented with the same chances as Ipswich, that they'd have bagged anything like. Vic, whilst looking somewhat lost with us, at least had some track record with Burton, he might have got closer. As DSB said, there's two parts to an assist, the ball in and then what happens to it.

[GhostoftheBok]

No, Ghost, you've got it all wrong. You're suppsed to provide stats that PROVE Insane's point, not the other way around!!

We all want Bolton to win. We didn't score enough goals last season and we're bringing back the same strikers for next season. People have every right to raise an eyebrow there, I think.

For me you build a team by putting the right skill sets in the right places, rather than by putting players who have done 'x' in another style of football in and hoping it works. I completely understand Insane worrying about the previous strike rates of our current forwards, though. You can say "this'll work" as much as you like, but until someone sees it happen there's no reason for them to accept it.

I think the lads we have can score the goals we need, so long as the team as a whole creates the chances; but unless it happens it's meaningless. If the team doesn't work better going forward they won't score enough. If what Insane is saying is "If we play like we did last season I don't think these guys will fire us to the Championship" then I agree, they won't. We have to fix the creativity issues.

I do think we're one short in attack regardless, though. I said before the summer that Charles, Adeboyejo, Bod and Nlundulu doesn't quite cover all bases and I'm not going to pretend I now think they do. I've wanted more pace in that forward line for 3 years and we're still short. We have to find someone who can threaten in behind a high line and pin sides back who want to compact midfield and stop us playing out.

[GhostoftheBok]

I'm not too worried about Dion (albeit we wouldn't want his to have a quiet one, next year). We know Bod can score if he's fit. I'm a lot less certain about Dan and Cameron if they'd been presented with the same chances as Ipswich, that they'd have bagged anything like. Vic, whilst looking somewhat lost with us, at least had some track record with Burton, he might have got closer. As DSB said, there's two parts to an assist, the ball in and then what happens to it.

Like I say, I don't expect anyone to just assume it'll work. I was annoyed last summer because I thought we'd made serious mistakes regarding goalscoring and therefore I am not going to judge anyone who questioning Evatt's assumptions in that area. Ian has been guilty of magical thinking at times, as though he can will a squad to produce goals when (in my view) it obviously won't work.

I do understand why people are worried about the strikers, like I said in my previous post if the team as a whole doesn't work better then they won't be good enough; but who at this level would be?

[Worthy4England]

I think we all pretty much agree we need more in the chance creation Dept (I'm maybe a little less focused on it all being at RWB)...

And had we bought someone more ready made instead of Dan, I'd have been a bit happier right now.

I do sorta get the impression some folks are expecting a couple of £1m players to show up on the HMS PtL.

But overall, happy to wait and see how it pans out, when we're done.

[GhostoftheBok]

I do sorta get the impression some folks are expecting a couple of £1m players to show up on the HMS PtL.

I can't say I'm one such.

Don't get me wrong, if a couple of serious players (by the standards of this league) show up then that's great; but if we spend £1m I don't think it'll be on "the finished article", as Insane would have it - it'll be someone we think can make us 8 figures down the road at some stage.

We seem to be upping the wage budget more than anything, which is a more significant move than just throwing a bit extra at transfer fees. The entire Nlundulu deal will have cost us at least £1m over the 3 years of his deal. Baccus would have cost us a similar amount had we done that one.

We've gone from spending very little on the goalkeeping department to having two proper, experienced pros there. That's at least an additional £250k a year - plus their signing fees. Yes, Baxter turned down 10k a week elsewhere and "took less"; but he's not come here on buttons.

We're aiming to have two full pros on the right, rather than a loanee and then cover through versatility.

When you add up all the additional costs you're talking millions over the next couple of years.

If the total transfer fees come to £1.5m I'll view that as serious outlay. If it's more, wow. Never say never, but I think that would surprise the entire division.

[BWFC_Insane]

There must be some stats on conversion rate or something we can look at?

Off the top of my head Chaplin was at almost bang on 28%, a hair below 28% for Dion and Ladapo at about 25%. Victor at around 34%, second only to Colby Bishop who was over 35%.

When you adjust for shot position it gets even better for our guys and Bishop drops off quite a bit, probably because of the number of times he nodded in a set piece.

We sign players based largely on the data and Markham knows what he's doing in terms of modelling, so you'd expect our guys to compare well when you try to adjust and create apples to apples mapping.

No, Ghost, you've got it all wrong. You're suppsed to provide stats that PROVE Insane's point, not the other way around!!

It was worthy’s point not mine. I was just asking if there were stats either way.

[BWFC_Insane]

I think we all pretty much agree we need more in the chance creation Dept (I'm maybe a little less focused on it all being at RWB)...

And had we bought someone more ready made instead of Dan, I'd have been a bit happier right now.

I do sorta get the impression some folks are expecting a couple of £1m players to show up on the HMS PtL.

But overall, happy to wait and see how it pans out, when we're done.

I’m not expecting £1M signings. That’s unrealistic. To say the least.

But I am expecting us to bring in some experienced pros who are stronger than we had last season in key areas. We know that is needed if we want to go up. And some magic at wing back probably.

I’m happy with what we’ve done thus far but still feel we are weaker than last season. Nlundulu is a major reservation for me. His stats are well behind our other strikers and indeed those who won promotion. He’s 24. He has to significantly improve for next season and almost be transformed in most aspects of his game for him to be the right signing. Evatt has made a judgement but like I say the last two windows for me Evatts judgement was wrong. So I’m not in the magical ‘if Evatt does it, it must be right’ club.

But that’s not to say I don’t think Evatt is good. He is. And generally he’s taken us on the right track. I’d like to see evidence that he knows what is needed for the extra step and the Wilson and Baccus deal for me showed he did. They fell through but I’d now like to see and hear real urgency and desire to find alternatives of equal quality.

My fear is that we will end up like last season. Failing to commit and Evatt will say we have the squad required and we have no issues before starting in October saying we have a lot to do in January. That cannot and must not happen again.

[Worthy4England]

Yeah, not you I had in mind, mate, on £1m players, just reading some stuff elsewhere. But obvs, if you pay upfront cash of £400k and paid them £7k per week, which I think is probably light for say a Barry Bannan, then you're making £750k commit for next season...