Snog, Marry, Avoid: Summer 2023 Transfer Window

[BWFC_Insane]

Yeah, not you I had in mind, mate, on £1m players, just reading some stuff elsewhere. But obvs, if you pay upfront cash of £400k and paid them £7k per week, which I think is probably light for say a Barry Bannan, then you're making £750k commit for next season...

Yeah. Some very unrealistic calculations on cost of a deal. Usually from the ‘where has all the money gone’ types.

On the flip side for me now is the time to take a risk or two because the time is now for going up. If we don’t go up then financially things might get messier. Risks might be paying slightly more than we value a player at for example in order to improve us. I feel the weakness we have is that to improve we need really good players because we already have a good squad but probably the obvious options in that category need a leap of faith financially or football wise.

[GhostoftheBok]

I thought Baxter's comments about the money he turned down were interesting. I knew he had a 10k a week domestic offer, but he says he turned down "5 times" what we're paying him - which I assume means Haifa offered to match his Chelsea wages.

That's a big statement of intent from a young player (young for a goalkeeper). He wants to play in the Premier League with Bolton Wanderers and is prepared to lose around a million quid a year to make it happen.

[The_Gun]

I think we all pretty much agree we need more in the chance creation Dept (I'm maybe a little less focused on it all being at RWB)...

And had we bought someone more ready made instead of Dan, I'd have been a bit happier right now.

I do sorta get the impression some folks are expecting a couple of £1m players to show up on the HMS PtL.

But overall, happy to wait and see how it pans out, when we're done.

I’m not expecting £1M signings. That’s unrealistic. To say the least.

But I am expecting us to bring in some experienced pros who are stronger than we had last season in key areas. We know that is needed if we want to go up. And some magic at wing back probably.

I’m happy with what we’ve done thus far but still feel we are weaker than last season. Nlundulu is a major reservation for me. His stats are well behind our other strikers and indeed those who won promotion. He’s 24. He has to significantly improve for next season and almost be transformed in most aspects of his game for him to be the right signing. Evatt has made a judgement but like I say the last two windows for me Evatts judgement was wrong. So I’m not in the magical ‘if Evatt does it, it must be right’ club.

But that’s not to say I don’t think Evatt is good. He is. And generally he’s taken us on the right track. I’d like to see evidence that he knows what is needed for the extra step and the Wilson and Baccus deal for me showed he did. They fell through but I’d now like to see and hear real urgency and desire to find alternatives of equal quality.

My fear is that we will end up like last season. Failing to commit and Evatt will say we have the squad required and we have no issues before starting in October saying we have a lot to do in January. That cannot and must not happen again.

I know it's easier to imagine that Evatt is making all our recruitment decisions, but it surely isn't accurate. Also, was the summer 22 window a failure? We signed Toal, Bradley, Trafford and Iredale.

[Worthy4England]

I've done a bit more digging from the same source - FotMob around "big chances" - cautionary note, I've no idea where they source their data, but they say its Opta.

The contention was Ipswich put a lot more on a plate for their average strikers than we did for ours. The numbers are roughly similar for "Big Chances" 61 us, 63 them, but they bagged twice as many - which I sort of put down to having two players capable of scoring, to our one.

Either way, we're the bottom end of conversions of big chances out of the top 8 big chance creators...If we applied Plymouth's conversion rate to our big chances, that would be an additional 14 goals - if we applied Ipswich's that would only be an additional 5 (I mean we'd have 'em, thanks)

So I'm sort of still convinced that whilst we need to create more "big chances," Peterborough were "top," but only 11 ahead of us so we could have created an additional 11 and with our conversion rate, it would have only bagged 1 additional goal.

I've not yet found a way to work out if Dion is very culpable within this equation or Dion is pretty much our 11%, and the rest were woeful (I used that word to make Insano feel all glowy! )

Big Chances.jpg (70.71 KiB) Viewed 668 times

[BWFC_Insane]

I've done a bit more digging from the same source - FotMob around "big chances" - cautionary note, I've no idea where they source their data, but they say its Opta.

The contention was Ipswich put a lot more on a plate for their average strikers than we did for ours. The numbers are roughly similar for "Big Chances" 61 us, 63 them, but they bagged twice as many - which I sort of put down to having two players capable of scoring, to our one.

Either way, we're the bottom end of conversions of big chances out of the top 8 big chance creators...If we applied Plymouth's conversion rate to our big chances, that would be an additional 14 goals - if we applied Ipswich's that would only be an additional 5 (I mean we'd have 'em, thanks)

So I'm sort of still convinced that whilst we need to create more "big chances," Peterborough were "top," but only 11 ahead of us so we could have created an additional 11 and with our conversion rate, it would have only bagged 1 additional goal.

I've not yet found a way to work out if Dion is very culpable within this equation or Dion is pretty much our 11%, and the rest were woeful (I used that word to make Insano feel all glowy! )

Big Chances.jpg

Yeah it’s this data I meant. Opta. I just didn’t know if they did it at league one level.

But I think that’s the relevant data to examine.

Assuming it’s right it would confirm that we do not take enough of our chances.

Also in terms of the margins 5 extra goals could well mean 8 or 9 more points. And it’s also the snowball effect. Win a game that we’d have drawn and the potential momentum that gives you.

[BWFC_Insane]

I think we all pretty much agree we need more in the chance creation Dept (I'm maybe a little less focused on it all being at RWB)...

And had we bought someone more ready made instead of Dan, I'd have been a bit happier right now.

I do sorta get the impression some folks are expecting a couple of £1m players to show up on the HMS PtL.

But overall, happy to wait and see how it pans out, when we're done.

I’m not expecting £1M signings. That’s unrealistic. To say the least.

But I am expecting us to bring in some experienced pros who are stronger than we had last season in key areas. We know that is needed if we want to go up. And some magic at wing back probably.

I’m happy with what we’ve done thus far but still feel we are weaker than last season. Nlundulu is a major reservation for me. His stats are well behind our other strikers and indeed those who won promotion. He’s 24. He has to significantly improve for next season and almost be transformed in most aspects of his game for him to be the right signing. Evatt has made a judgement but like I say the last two windows for me Evatts judgement was wrong. So I’m not in the magical ‘if Evatt does it, it must be right’ club.

But that’s not to say I don’t think Evatt is good. He is. And generally he’s taken us on the right track. I’d like to see evidence that he knows what is needed for the extra step and the Wilson and Baccus deal for me showed he did. They fell through but I’d now like to see and hear real urgency and desire to find alternatives of equal quality.

My fear is that we will end up like last season. Failing to commit and Evatt will say we have the squad required and we have no issues before starting in October saying we have a lot to do in January. That cannot and must not happen again.

I know it's easier to imagine that Evatt is making all our recruitment decisions, but it surely isn't accurate. Also, was the summer 22 window a failure? We signed Toal, Bradley, Trafford and Iredale.

Yeah it’s not like Evatt is the sole decision maker or factor. But either he doesn’t have sufficient budget to compete and the club shouldn’t be talking about the top 2 or he does.

And the thing is last summer was not disastrous it just wasn’t where we needed to be. Evatt said that. Then January rebuilt somewhat without significantly kicking us on.

The gap to close for the top 2 needs more than we have. And we need to make some potentially brave decisions. I don’t think we can simply moneyball into the top 2. Some point you need to get the best player you can even if that’s going a little over their value or it’s getting someone who maybe won’t have the sell on value.

[GhostoftheBok]

I've not yet found a way to work out if Dion is very culpable within this equation or Dion is pretty much our 11%, and the rest were woeful (I used that word to make Insano feel all glowy! )

Big Chances.jpg

By that metric Dion missed 13 Big Chances. JCH missed 20. Ladapo missed 10. Chaplin 8.

Dion's conversion rate was equal to JCH and higher than Ladapo and Chaplin.

Bradley, according to the source, missed 9 Big Chances.

If they are using Opta then penalties and a lot of headers from set pieces count as Big Chances. Most shots from within the box don't, even if they're very high xG or what you and I would call an obvious gimme. It has to be an unobstructed shot under no direct challenge. It's also the case that when clear through almost any shot will count as a big chance, so Dion's various efforts off his left from a tight angle would count.

That makes me not trust that they're getting their data from Opta, as it would mean that our 7 converted big chances were Dion's 6 penalties and then 1 other goal. I can think of more than one goal we've scored this season that would meet Opta's Big Chance criteria.

*edit* I think we scored 7 penalties. Which would mean all our "Big Chance" goals were from pens and we missed 54 essentially "just beat the keeper" chances without converting a single one. Which didn't happen.

[TANGODANCER]

Que Sea, sera.

[Worthy4England]

I've not yet found a way to work out if Dion is very culpable within this equation or Dion is pretty much our 11%, and the rest were woeful (I used that word to make Insano feel all glowy! )

Big Chances.jpg

By that metric Dion missed 13 Big Chances. JCH missed 20. Ladapo missed 10. Chaplin 8.

Dion's conversion rate was equal to JCH and higher than Ladapo and Chaplin.

Bradley, according to the source, missed 9 Big Chances.

If they are using Opta then penalties and a lot of headers from set pieces count as Big Chances. Most shots from within the box don't, even if they're very high xG or what you and I would call an obvious gimme. It has to be an unobstructed shot under no direct challenge. It's also the case that when clear through almost any shot will count as a big chance, so Dion's various efforts off his left from a tight angle would count.

That makes me not trust that they're getting their data from Opta, as it would mean that our 7 converted big chances were Dion's 6 penalties and then 1 other goal. I can think of more than one goal we've scored this season that would meet Opta's Big Chance criteria.

Please show your workings out on the answer paper. Not sure I follow the Dion missed 13 big chances part or how it's deduced from what's there. As to the point you made, 10 might have been free headers, 6 yards out on Rico's Sheriff's Badge, which would get you off to a decent start.

I think what you're saying is we should discount headers from set pieces from being good chances and only count stuff that hits the very narrow definition of "unobstructed shot, under no direct challenge" etc. etc. As an aside I didn't spot too many of those on Chaplin's reel, either....

[GhostoftheBok]

Please show your workings out on the answer paper. Not sure I follow the Dion missed 13 big chances part or how it's deduced from what's there.

There's a list of "Big Chances Missed" from the source you cited.

https://www.fotmob.com/leagues/108/stat ... nce_missed

I'm just using their totals so it's like for like, rather than moving away to another source.

[GhostoftheBok]

As an aside I didn't spot too many of those on Chaplin's reel, either....

Which would mean you're saying Chaplin missed all his "Big Chances" then, because the source says he had some and there are none on his goals reel.

[BWFC_Insane]

I also think its bizarre to say we can't count chances on Dion's left peg. I mean they are still chances. One of the things that is up for debate is the balance between how much our problems are - down to missing them or down to not creating them. But I think its both.

We had two half chances against Barnsley before they scored. One for Dion and one for Nlundulu. We had a decent chance first leg to win the tie that the defender blocked from Nlundulu. Its not hard to make a case that a better striker might have scored one of those and the outcome been completely different. Its also not hard to make the case that we did not create enough over the two legs.

We can cite loads of situations - Accrington at home, Charles clean through big chance - makes a mess of it. We lose the game. Its not purely down to the missed chance but goals change games and seasons. So taking more chances has to be something we do. Even if we create more. Missing chances also psychologically harmed us at points last season.

[Worthy4England]

As an aside I didn't spot too many of those on Chaplin's reel, either....

Which would mean you're saying Chaplin missed all his "Big Chances" then, because the source says he had some and there are none on his goals reel.

Not many and none aren't the same number.

[Worthy4England]

Please show your workings out on the answer paper. Not sure I follow the Dion missed 13 big chances part or how it's deduced from what's there.

There's a list of "Big Chances Missed" from the source you cited.

https://www.fotmob.com/leagues/108/stat ... nce_missed

I'm just using their totals so it's like for like, rather than moving away to another source.

Gotcha - I'll have a look. They're the same stat set we were happy to say "Ipswich created twice as many" yesterday though!

[boltonboris]

Dion had a torrid month or so towards the end of 2022. He couldn't hit a barn door and we dropped a good number of points.

I love him, but he doesn't always fill me with confidence in front of goal, especially if he's running through 1-on-1 with the keeper. I never back him as favourite in those situations

[GhostoftheBok]

Opta's definition of their Big Chance event: "A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances."

Not actually a brilliant description of how they calculate it, but that's from their website.

So if we're treating the Futmob data as accurate (it's not) we scored 55 goals, none of which we should have reasonably expected to score. We didn't score any from close range or under anything other than a direct challenge.

Dion clean through and nutmegging the keeper against Oxford was an Opta Big Chance event. So that's one out. He also put one into an empty net against Charlton, so that's two.

I think this is just a dodgy source.

[GhostoftheBok]

Gotcha - I'll have a look. They're the same stat set we were happy to say "Ipswich created twice as many" yesterday though!

I can't be expected to argue both for and against my position

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

For all the stats, all the opinions and all the arguments, we can parse it down to one question to ask why we didn't score enough: Did we miss too many chances or did we not make enough?

From the eye and gut test, to this observer, it feels like a bit of both. While I have faith in the system, I never quite got the "we're gonna score in a minute" feeling, and as Boris says, even when a clear chance came about (and for the one striker who could be anywhere close to 'reliable' last season), I still wasn't arms-aloft in expectation.

[GhostoftheBok]

Dion scored 11 non-pen goals in 40 starts, so yeah I'm not thrilled by that.

The fact remains, Charles is a very good striker for this level. As much as I struggle to praise any striker who is 1 in 4 discounting penalties.

[Mar]

Dion scored 11 non-pen goals in 40 starts, so yeah I'm not thrilled by that.

The fact remains, Charles is a very good striker for this level. As much as I struggle to praise any striker who is 1 in 4 discounting penalties.

I think the telling thing for last season is that we weren't creating options that frequently. It seemed very much like we'd get into good positions and not take advantage of them. That went for all strikers and not just Charles. Compare Fossey's assist stats to Bradley's and there's a noticeable difference. Not saying thats down to Bradley, just more an issue all round.