Should I(E) stay or should I(E) go?

[BWFC_Insane]

He has been backed. Considerably.
He has also failed to deliver on the targets he went public with. I get it.

However, through all his failings, until he isn't, he's our manager. And all those spineless bottlers are our players until they're moved on.

We need to support them and get behind them, but more importantly some of us need to very quickly get over this ridiculous notion that we somehow deserve more due to being such a "big" club, where anything less than champions league football in 2 years is abject failure and somehow a disgrace....

We have no more a rightful place in the league than that of an improving club amongst the best in the 3rd tier. I - like all fans - want more than that, but to cling into the idea we somehow deserve more is quite frankly embarrassing....

They’ve had unbelievable support. 32K fans went down to Wembley to support them a second time. That’s more fans than Rioch got at Wembley against Reading or Allardyce got at Cardiff. For bigger games I hasten to add.

The support has been immense.

Pointing out he’s failed and isn’t that great when he’s said so himself is simply a stating of the facts.

He’s been backed financially and again when it was pointed out that signing players who have done less than nowt in their careers like Nlundulu was a scandalous waste of resources we were all told we were wrong. In the end unsurprisingly signing the 24 year olds who’ve done nowt in their careers is an absolutely unforgivable waste of resources for a league one club.

Evatt hasn’t done the job required and has to as he himself accepts, face the criticism of what happened.

The warning signs were all there. Wasting resources on players who won’t help get us out of the league. Signing the same sort of player. Not addressing the mental and physical weakness in the side.

The club always has my support but the manager and players aren’t the club. The club is what they serve not the other way round.

[dave the minion]

The support and backing is undeniable - don't think anyone is disputing that at all.

The failure to get up is also undeniable. However, failure happens (see half a dozen premier League managers who did the same - doesn't make them crap....)

Where it gets tricky in my mind is that repeated failure has to be recognised and changes made. To me, we are not at repeated failure with IE. I think we've made HUGE progress with him in charge on and off the pitch and have progressed each year - that's not walking/sacking territory by a long shout. Ultimately it might end up there, but not now.

And good to see you gave Dan a couple of weeks of (hardly playing) fitness before bringing him back into your cross-hairs...

[BWFC_Insane]

The support and backing is undeniable - don't think anyone is disputing that at all.

The failure to get up is also undeniable. However, failure happens (see half a dozen premier League managers who did the same - doesn't make them crap....)

Where it gets tricky in my mind is that repeated failure has to be recognised and changes made. To me, we are not at repeated failure with IE. I think we've made HUGE progress with him in charge on and off the pitch and have progressed each year - that's not walking/sacking territory by a long shout. Ultimately it might end up there, but not now.

And good to see you gave Dan a couple of weeks of (hardly playing) fitness before bringing him back into your cross-hairs...

Sorry but huge progress is the line trotted out but I simply don’t agree. We’ve spent two seasons being a decent league one side but both times failed to win promotion and failed to perform in the big games when it counted.

We didn’t improve. Indeed the best team he assembled was the back half of the season in our first season back in this league imo. Last season without Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich in the league with Barnsley struggling more, Charlton having a poor time a well managed club like Plymouth up and none of the three relegated teams being up to much we finished three higher. I think that’s at best treading water. At best. We ultimately lost out on promotion to three sides who all finished below us the season before. Oxford who finished 19th. None of those sides massively outspent us overall. Derby are under embargo - they’d have loved to be able to go and sign Collins. Portsmouth are always competitive in the market like us but Oxford…come on.

So i simply don’t agree that we’ve progressed.

The failings have been unanswered. They’ve been left. Across two seasons. Next season undoubtedly we will be significantly more budget limited and disadvantaged. Having lost £5.6m last financial year and maybe more this. So it will be Evatt doing something he’s not yet come close to doing which is managing to over perform as a manager. So far he’s only shown an ability to underperform.

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

Whether we should or shouldn't be in L1 is immaterial. Ultimately a good manager gets the best out of the players at his disposal. The best managers manage to get more than the sum of the players out of them. Evatt probably comes in at decent. He mostly gets a decent tune out of them, but not consistently enough.

It is easy to bash Evatt over the head with Dan, but find me a manager that hasn't made a few poor decisions with transfers and I'll present my arse on the town hall steps. Lets be honest, Allardyce signed more than a few shockers in his time for us, and spent eye watering amounts on average players at Newcastle.

I think it is fair to say Evatt has failed to meet reasonable expectation this season having met it last season, albeit with a disappointing showing at Barnsley. It comes down to whether you believe he is up to meeting expectation next season and I think it's reasonable to believe it is possible or unlikely, so lets not dig at each other for having an opposing view.

Couple of questions for folk...

Had we made a good fist of it at Wembley but lost how many of you would feel differently right now?

If you're in the Evatt out camp, or getting splinters on the fence, what, if anything would make you want to back him next season? Be realistic, he's not sacking off the entire squad and going all 1990s Cambridge.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I thought Dan was £300,000. Still a lot of money, but nowhere near seven figures.

[BWFC_Insane]

^^The issue with Nlundulu is not that it was a poor transfer. It’s the hubris of Evatt thinking that we can develop him into the next ‘Ivan Toney’ and that as a league one club we can afford to take such risks with limited resources and the idea we don’t need to pour every thing we have into getting out of the league.

All this development nonsense only makes sense if you can afford it on top of being good enough to achieve your first team aims.

[Worthy4England]

I thought Dan was £300,000. Still a lot of money, but nowhere near seven figures.

Yeah, I thought his contract value (package etc.) Was about a mill, mate, is what I meant...

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

^^The issue with Nlundulu is not that it was a poor transfer. It’s the hubris of Evatt thinking that we can develop him into the next ‘Ivan Toney’ and that as a league one club we can afford to take such risks with limited resources and the idea we don’t need to pour every thing we have into getting out of the league.

All this development nonsense only makes sense if you can afford it on top of being good enough to achieve your first team aims.

Is it nonsense? As a business owner I can't just concentrate on now. No point making a million this year if I go bust next year. You have to balance and maximise what you have and that means investing and accepting not every year is going to amazeballs profit. My business has taken a huge hit profits wise the last couple of years, but we've been investing everything back in and in our staff. Yes, there are short term imperatives, but I don't think everyone agrees on what they are. Sometimes you have to hold your hands up and admit you got it wrong, then have a plan for fixing it. The important thing is both admitting it and having a workable plan to fix it.

Has Evatt held his hands up and do you believe he believes he fecked it up? What we don't know is is there a workable plan...

[Worthy4England]

Whether we should or shouldn't be in L1 is immaterial. Ultimately a good manager gets the best out of the players at his disposal. The best managers manage to get more than the sum of the players out of them. Evatt probably comes in at decent. He mostly gets a decent tune out of them, but not consistently enough.

It is easy to bash Evatt over the head with Dan, but find me a manager that hasn't made a few poor decisions with transfers and I'll present my arse on the town hall steps. Lets be honest, Allardyce signed more than a few shockers in his time for us, and spent eye watering amounts on average players at Newcastle.

I think it is fair to say Evatt has failed to meet reasonable expectation this season having met it last season, albeit with a disappointing showing at Barnsley. It comes down to whether you believe he is up to meeting expectation next season and I think it's reasonable to believe it is possible or unlikely, so lets not dig at each other for having an opposing view.

Couple of questions for folk...

Had we made a good fist of it at Wembley but lost how many of you would feel differently right now?

If you're in the Evatt out camp, or getting splinters on the fence, what, if anything would make you want to back him next season? Be realistic, he's not sacking off the entire squad and going all 1990s Cambridge.

Tricky for me, I can accept losing, if we acquit ourselves well, so I'd be less miffed. What we've heard so far is "we did our pre-match right." So doesn't really add up for me. To use your business analogy, if I come to your shop and 10 times a year only get half but you still charge me full price, I'd be a bit miffed.

I'd at least like to hear "I [Evatt] got some stuff wrong, but I have a plan to fix it"

I don't think it's "clearout" but needs options for Santos and Player of the Year - which may be formational for some games. Gonna call it Plan A+.

[Harry Genshaw]

Good question by AT. If we'd have fought hard at Wembley and been narrowly beaten, I'm sure I'd be in the 'Evatt stay' camp. To be fair I'm only just in the 'Evatt out' one, even after the limp performance we did put in.

Dan could become a huge millstone for Evatt though. Much as I love the guy and been willing him to do well, the decision to spend £300k + on him after an indifferent loan spell, does look pretty reckless on the managers behalf.

[dave the minion]

Good question by AT. If we'd have fought hard at Wembley and been narrowly beaten, I'm sure I'd be in the 'Evatt stay' camp. To be fair I'm only just in the 'Evatt out' one, even after the limp performance we did put in.

Dan could become a huge millstone for Evatt though. Much as I love the guy and been willing him to do well, the decision to spend £300k + on him after an indifferent loan spell, does look pretty reckless on the managers behalf.

Why reckless? I'm sure it was the opposite and a very measured decision - we don't know what the team were seeing in training behind the scenes to make them think it was the right decision? And, to be fair to the guy, he was just starting to hit some form when his season was prematurely ended by the injury.
With 3 other senior strikers on the books, and presumably visions of getting another like Collins in mid-season, I don't see any issue on taking a chance on a player like Dan with a view to developing him into a solid first teamer....

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

It felt odd at the time that we spent money on Dan - freebie maybe, but we paid. In a page-filling round-up on this last deadline day the BN said it was a £250k fee. He's on a three-year contract so to make that cost up to seven figures he'd need to be on £5kpw - not impossible, but again it would be a decentish whack for someone who hadn't proven himself – if (and it's an if) that's true.

[Worthy4England]

It felt odd at the time that we spent money on Dan - freebie maybe, but we paid. In a page-filling round-up on this last deadline day the BN said it was a £250k fee. He's on a three-year contract so to make that cost up to seven figures he'd need to be on £5kpw - not impossible, but again it would be a decentish whack for someone who hadn't proven himself – if (and it's an if) that's true.

I think it mighta been Ghost who mentioned the three years or whatever would probably touch a mill. Wasn't something I just made up mate...

[GhostoftheBok]

The support and backing is undeniable - don't think anyone is disputing that at all.

Depends what you mean.

Ian has been backed in excess of what we expected, due to the fan bond.

What isn't true is that the fan bond caught us up to other clubs in the division and certainly not to the two that went up automatically.

There's loads of criticism to be levelled at Evatt, but the idea that we could have spent our way out of the division is crazy.

The fan money closed the cash gap, by allowing the club to purchase playing assets using other people's money. I disliked it at the time and I still do. However, the football department spending is nowhere near the top of the division even with that additional money. Prior to that we were apparently close behind Oxford in football spending. Losing the final to them was unacceptable in terms of relative spending this season, but that's the only place money comes into the underperformance.

What the bond did was get Evatt into a position where he couldn't blame money for not being competitive. It didn't move him to a footing where the money spent should have put him streets ahead of anyone else.

This is the first season in League One where we've not overperformed our budgets. We were about par - which isn't good enough for someone billing themselves as "an elite coach", but also isn't "embarrassing."

The players we bought *should* offer more next season than the one gone - development, injuries, preseason...pick your reason. So the "cash hangover" that is likely to hit us should be mitigated a bit. If it's not then accusations of wasting money can start to be made.

If there's any sense to what they did with the bond then the wage increase should still be covered, without us needing to get rid of higher earners. So hopefully we can still improve.

It'll be the same next season. We won't have one of the top budgets, but we should be right up there as we've had time to get this squad straight. Some who have outspent us may be a lot better, but we have to hope the relegated clubs take time to get their act together.

If we don't go up next season then we've probably missed the boat and will need to significantly cut the playing budget.

If we don't go up this season (under Evatt, or someone else if Evatt goes at some stage), then next summer will be the time to have a rethink. A total rebuild this summer puts us immediately well behind the relegated clubs and a number of clubs we faced last season. They are also rebuilding, but they have the advantage of a lot more money.

So Evatt has certainly underperformed this season, but it's in terms of his own estimation of himself rather than spending. What the spending means is he shouldn't be able to find any excuses for his own performance being pretty average in a poor division. His genuinely good work got him to the point where he had to be average to fail, which is why I'm of the mind he gets another season; but opinions there vary.

[BWFC_Insane]

^^The issue with Nlundulu is not that it was a poor transfer. It’s the hubris of Evatt thinking that we can develop him into the next ‘Ivan Toney’ and that as a league one club we can afford to take such risks with limited resources and the idea we don’t need to pour every thing we have into getting out of the league.

All this development nonsense only makes sense if you can afford it on top of being good enough to achieve your first team aims.

Is it nonsense? As a business owner I can't just concentrate on now. No point making a million this year if I go bust next year. You have to balance and maximise what you have and that means investing and accepting not every year is going to amazeballs profit. My business has taken a huge hit profits wise the last couple of years, but we've been investing everything back in and in our staff. Yes, there are short term imperatives, but I don't think everyone agrees on what they are. Sometimes you have to hold your hands up and admit you got it wrong, then have a plan for fixing it. The important thing is both admitting it and having a workable plan to fix it.

Has Evatt held his hands up and do you believe he believes he fecked it up? What we don't know is is there a workable plan...

Development is fine but that’s teens in an academy or reserve side. Not spending large sums for us for a 24 year old never has been using up a first team slot and wage. We all knew it was a mistake but Evatts hubris meant he thought he could turn him into Ivan Toney. Ridiculous.

[dave the minion]

^^The issue with Nlundulu is not that it was a poor transfer. It’s the hubris of Evatt thinking that we can develop him into the next ‘Ivan Toney’ and that as a league one club we can afford to take such risks with limited resources and the idea we don’t need to pour every thing we have into getting out of the league.

All this development nonsense only makes sense if you can afford it on top of being good enough to achieve your first team aims.

Is it nonsense? As a business owner I can't just concentrate on now. No point making a million this year if I go bust next year. You have to balance and maximise what you have and that means investing and accepting not every year is going to amazeballs profit. My business has taken a huge hit profits wise the last couple of years, but we've been investing everything back in and in our staff. Yes, there are short term imperatives, but I don't think everyone agrees on what they are. Sometimes you have to hold your hands up and admit you got it wrong, then have a plan for fixing it. The important thing is both admitting it and having a workable plan to fix it.

Has Evatt held his hands up and do you believe he believes he fecked it up? What we don't know is is there a workable plan...

Development is fine but that’s teens in an academy or reserve side. Not spending large sums for us for a 24 year old never has been using up a first team slot and wage. We all knew it was a mistake but Evatts hubris meant he thought he could turn him into Ivan Toney. Ridiculous.

So go on then, who didn't we sign as a result of Dan taking up a squad place and finances?

[Prufrock]

It's been mentioned a few times that Derby are in an embargo and therefore we can somehow be said to outspend them.

Firstly, I don't think that's true as a matter of fact. BBC reported it was lifted last May, they signed Kane Wilson (mhmm) after "an undisclosed agreement" last summer, and signed the Charlton lad for big wedge in Jan (on loan at the time).

Secondly, transfer fees matter a lot less than wages. That's true higher up but particularly at this level. And they clearly massively out spent us though. We'll be top six but not top two (last year and probably next too).

As to whether "significant progress" has been made. That's clearly true. When he took over we were in league 2 with two senior players, one of whom was Harry Brockbank and the other was Ali Crawford minus a knee.

Since then we've been promoted at the first time of asking, consolidated, won a trophy and made the play offs twice. That's big progress however you cut it.

The more relevant question is is it as quick as you'd expect and is it fair to be critical if not. Up to this season I'd have said yes. This is the first year you can even realistically make an argument he's failed. There's enough banked for me that he's still the right man. But there isn't much wiggle room from here.

[Harry Genshaw]

Good question by AT. If we'd have fought hard at Wembley and been narrowly beaten, I'm sure I'd be in the 'Evatt stay' camp. To be fair I'm only just in the 'Evatt out' one, even after the limp performance we did put in.

Dan could become a huge millstone for Evatt though. Much as I love the guy and been willing him to do well, the decision to spend £300k + on him after an indifferent loan spell, does look pretty reckless on the managers behalf.

Why reckless? I'm sure it was the opposite and a very measured decision - we don't know what the team were seeing in training behind the scenes to make them think it was the right decision? And, to be fair to the guy, he was just starting to hit some form when his season was prematurely ended by the injury.
With 3 other senior strikers on the books, and presumably visions of getting another like Collins in mid-season, I don't see any issue on taking a chance on a player like Dan with a view to developing him into a solid first teamer....

It looks pretty reckless to me because at this level every penny counts. Irrespective of what may have been seen in training, we'd had half a season of seeing him in first team action. As I say, I love the guy and want him to do well but we haven't had anything like a return on the investment, and I hope I'm wrong but I don't think we're likely to either.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

It's been mentioned a few times that Derby are in an embargo and therefore we can somehow be said to outspend them.

Firstly, I don't think that's true as a matter of fact. BBC reported it was lifted last May, they signed Kane Wilson (mhmm) after "an undisclosed agreement" last summer, and signed the Charlton lad for big wedge in Jan (on loan at the time).

Secondly, transfer fees matter a lot less than wages. That's true higher up but particularly at this level. And they clearly massively out spent us though. We'll be top six but not top two (last year and probably next too).

As to whether "significant progress" has been made. That's clearly true. When he took over we were in league 2 with two senior players, one of whom was Harry Brockbank and the other was Ali Crawford minus a knee.

Since then we've been promoted at the first time of asking, consolidated, won a trophy and made the play offs twice. That's big progress however you cut it.

The more relevant question is is it as quick as you'd expect and is it fair to be critical if not. Up to this season I'd have said yes. This is the first year you can even realistically make an argument he's failed. There's enough banked for me that he's still the right man. But there isn't much wiggle room from here.

Never entirely confident of trusting online sources regarding wages but most seem to coalesce on Derby being easily the biggest payers in the division, north of £150kpw, with Pompey second just above £120kpw and us tucked behind them in the teens, just below Reading and just above Oxford.

Even without those figures, there's presumably a reason why players like Tom Barkhuizen, in his 30s and Lancashire-based throughout his career barring one early loan, would up sticks and move to the midlands rather than just down the M61. (Perhaps some people will say it's because he'd rather play for Warne than Evatt, but I'm not sure on that.)

One more thing, Pru. We did have two 'senior' players when Evatt arrived, but one wasn't Crawford, whom Evatt re-signed. The other was George Thomason, and at the time many fans (including me) wondered if he was even a Football League player. His development since then has been very impressive and I'm sure he would attribute a lot of that to Evatt and the coaching staff – he did, after all, refuse to move up a division to Bristol City, often in turn a decent springboard to lower prem teams like Bournemouth.

Clearly the team as a whole hasn't quite managed Tomo's level of development but the idea that Evatt has bought his way to whatever success he's had is more than a little reductive IMO. He can clearly develop players, he can clearly change systems, he can clearly adapt to maximise different types of players (think of his No.9s). Only the loveblind would claim the Oxford final wasn't a huge, huge disappointment but I suspect it's now being used to jemmy in a little argument-suiting hindsight.

That said, as Pru puts it, his wiggle room has now been significantly reduced. It's time to deliver and to prove he's the best man for the job.

[GhostoftheBok]

is it as quick as you'd expect

Which rather goes back to the prior point about entitlement.

If we looked at another team coming out of League Two with our same finances we'd never have them down as inevitably destined for the top two. Not in a month of sundays.

Everyone would agree it'd take stellar work to get them into the hunt for the autos.

All this "We are Bolton Wanderers and we should be..." is bollocks. The badge and the stadium give us an advantage over a lot of other League One clubs in attracting players, but not over all of them. As we saw previously with some of the lads who just took Derby up, it's mostly about wages.

The big worry we have now is that we have out-punched a few around us, because Evatt has sold lads on the promise of progression. "Come with me to the promised land, boy!" becomes a more difficult pitch after a very public collapse at Wembley.

That was what got Baxter here, turning down huge money abroad.

Do the players still believe this is the place to live the dream? Dion will be 29 shortly after the season gets going. Collins is recently 27. Rico will be 29 in June. Baxter is only 25. It's a mixed bag, but plenty wouldn't be seeing the sunny uplands of Evatt's maiden Premier League campaign even if he turned into Pep over the summer. Wembley will likely have killed a dream for a few, regardless of how unlikely it was in reality. It's the manager's job to turn that disappointment into drive. Evatt seems to be licking his own wounds at the minute.