Down in The Valley, something stirred. V Charlton Athletic away Sat Aug 24th 3-0 'clock.

[GhostoftheBok]

We have the joint lowest shots conceded after 3 games, at 24, with most of those (11) coming against Orient when Iredale had a stinker.

5 of the shots against us came from Iredale's defensive position. So around 20% of the efforts (and more in terms of XGA) came from one player being well off it.

You get these flare-ups with low sample sizes, but it's a reinforcement that we've not been all at sea tactically.

Broadly speaking, the players have been where you'd want them to be - which is the point of the system. The issue has been quality and familiarity. Lads getting it wrong at key times, or making identical runs...that sort of stuff.

Ultimately nobody will care if we lose more games (the manager wins or he eventually goes), but the general critique thus far has been wrong.

[dave the minion]

[quote="Dave Sutton's barnet" post_id=1182975 tim

Yep, you've definitely pinpointed some problems there. Don't miss chances when you're on top. Figure out what to do when the oppo changes (frequently a problem). And don't be a dick.
[/quote]

On your last point, I genuinely think most - of not all or.bloody close to all - of society's or even the world's problems would not exist if everybody just followed that one piece of simple, sage advice...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Yep, you've definitely pinpointed some problems there. Don't miss chances when you're on top. Figure out what to do when the oppo changes (frequently a problem). And don't be a dick.

On your last point, I genuinely think most - of not all or.bloody close to all - of society's or even the world's problems would not exist if everybody just followed that one piece of simple, sage advice...

Fully agreed.

[BWFC_Insane]

Sorry B.B. but I'd take a team of Thomasons' over a lot of other players in our league. My sort of player.

On this I’m with you. Thomason is one of the few in this squad I like.

I don’t think I’ve ever actively disliked a Bolton team but there are a few players in this side I do not like and a fair few I’m indifferent about.

[GhostoftheBok]

I don’t think I’ve ever actively disliked a Bolton team

Have you told your past self of the last 4 years?

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I don’t think I’ve ever actively disliked a Bolton team

Have you told your past self of the last 4 years?

Oh it goes back way further. BWFCi spent large slices of Parky’s promotion season saying we’d never go up, so he is at least consistent. I’m beginning to suspect he’s not a natural optimist

[Mar]

We have the joint lowest shots conceded after 3 games, at 24, with most of those (11) coming against Orient when Iredale had a stinker.

It's stats like this that make you sit up and think.

The manner of the goals that came about really have highlighted mistakes. The manner of the performances haven't given us reason to believe we deserved more than we got, particularly against Wrexham and Charlton.


Having a stat like that bodes very well. Maybe Evatt is onto something, but unless the front three start firing, we're going to reflect on the crappier moments rather than the decent ones. Sure we'd criticise Santos for those sorts of passes, but if we'd won, it'd paint an entirely different picture. Papering over the cracks if you will.

Maybe things aren't as bad as they seem. Getting some goals would certainly turn things in our favour.

[Mar]

I don’t think I’ve ever actively disliked a Bolton team

Have you told your past self of the last 4 years?

Oh it goes back way further. BWFCi spent large slices of Parky’s promotion season saying we’d never go up, so he is at least consistent. I’m beginning to suspect he’s not a natural optimist

Certainly not an optimist. I am wondering if he was joking or if he struggles with self reflection.

[BWFC_Insane]

I don’t think I’ve ever actively disliked a Bolton team

Have you told your past self of the last 4 years?

Oh it goes back way further. BWFCi spent large slices of Parky’s promotion season saying we’d never go up, so he is at least consistent. I’m beginning to suspect he’s not a natural optimist

I liked Parky and that team though. I’m not an optimist - definitely not but it’s different to whether I rate a manager. Parky was ace.

[GhostoftheBok]

Parky is aware of his alliums.

[Prufrock]

We have the joint lowest shots conceded after 3 games, at 24, with most of those (11) coming against Orient when Iredale had a stinker.

5 of the shots against us came from Iredale's defensive position. So around 20% of the efforts (and more in terms of XGA) came from one player being well off it.

You get these flare-ups with low sample sizes, but it's a reinforcement that we've not been all at sea tactically.

Broadly speaking, the players have been where you'd want them to be - which is the point of the system. The issue has been quality and familiarity. Lads getting it wrong at key times, or making identical runs...that sort of stuff.

Ultimately nobody will care if we lose more games (the manager wins or he eventually goes), but the general critique thus far has been wrong.

Absolutely agree with all that. The issue Evatt has (which I think you also agree with!) is that he doesn't have time, at least with the fan base.

And perception can be as important a reality. The goals we conceded at Charlton are mistakes just like Iredales but they feed a narrative (and also let's be honest, they look awful!).

[GhostoftheBok]

We're a good team. We fell just short last season. We have to be better this season. We'll see how it goes.

We will win a lot of football matches. Hopefully we win enough.

[Worthy4England]

Conceding a low number of shots in a game is good. Two of those going in every 90 minutes, would be somewhat less good. I'm nowhere near being on HMS piss the league, but I do expect us to have a decent tilt at top 2.

That's a higher bar than L1 S1 when my expectation was probably mid-table. When I say "that was shit," it's not a statement weighed against average it's weighed against the proclamations like we've invested again, Champo is the target, Ian's had what he wanted.

The analysis that counts for me is we're currently sat lower end of table. 5 points off third...

[BWFC_Insane]

Conceding a low number of shots in a game is good. Two of those going in every 90 minutes, would be somewhat less good. I'm nowhere near being on HMS piss the league, but I do expect us to have a decent tilt at top 2.

That's a higher bar than L1 S1 when my expectation was probably mid-table. When I say "that was shit," it's not a statement weighed against average it's weighed against the proclamations like we've invested again, Champo is the target, Ian's had what he wanted.

The analysis that counts for me is we're currently sat lower end of table. 5 points off third...

Yeah this. And we know that we can on our day absolutely destroy a weak league one side. Take them apart. But those days aren’t what matter. It’s the games against those at the top. The games we arent flying in against average sides. League one is about consistency. I have no interest in how good we are ‘on our day’. How good you are is measured by the league table.

[GhostoftheBok]

Step one is beating Exeter on Saturday.

Nobody has stopped them scoring so far and they've been one of the most creative and "shooty" sides in the division. Poor finishing has cost them.

We will do well to keep a clean sheet.

Not a top side, but a step up from Shrewsbury as we look to get it right.

[Worthy4England]

Conceding a low number of shots in a game is good. Two of those going in every 90 minutes, would be somewhat less good. I'm nowhere near being on HMS piss the league, but I do expect us to have a decent tilt at top 2.

That's a higher bar than L1 S1 when my expectation was probably mid-table. When I say "that was shit," it's not a statement weighed against average it's weighed against the proclamations like we've invested again, Champo is the target, Ian's had what he wanted.

The analysis that counts for me is we're currently sat lower end of table. 5 points off third...

Yeah this. And we know that we can on our day absolutely destroy a weak league one side. Take them apart. But those days aren’t what matter. It’s the games against those at the top. The games we arent flying in against average sides. League one is about consistency. I have no interest in how good we are ‘on our day’. How good you are is measured by the league table.

Since 1/1/24 we've played 26 league games, averaging 1.65 ppg if my maths is correct..That gets 6th in 2 out of 5 in the last 5 seasons....

[GhostoftheBok]

Since 1/1/24 we've played 26 league games, averaging 1.65 ppg if my maths is correct..That gets 6th in 2 out of 5 in the last 5 seasons....

But 7 of the last 10, isn't it?

So at our lowest ebb we're a play-offs side.

Good. Let's improve.

[Worthy4England]

Since 1/1/24 we've played 26 league games, averaging 1.65 ppg if my maths is correct..That gets 6th in 2 out of 5 in the last 5 seasons....

But 7 of the last 10, isn't it?

So at our lowest ebb we're a play-offs side.

Good. Let's improve.

Only looked 5 back but I guess it depends whether you think the last 5 are more reflective than the 5 before. The 5 from 2014/15 were 69, 74, 73, 71 and 73. Since then we had 60 COVID so 79 pro rata, 74, 83, 77 and 76. I think it would be foolish to target years 10-5 on the off chance it would be good enough...I picked this calendar year, before looking at what transpired to see if what it worked out as was in any way reflective of how I thought I recalled it...I'd rather keep the bar high than low. 6th for me would not be a great League performance (but could be a happy one, for sure)...

[GhostoftheBok]

I think larger sample sizes are usually better.

[GhostoftheBok]

Interestingly it's also enough points to get you into the play-offs in 7 of the last 10 Championship seasons - another 46 game division.

Probably informative as to how points distributions work generally, but it'd take a lot of work to test it properly.

Suffice to say we're okay, even when we're crap; but we need to be a lot better if Evatt's to keep his job.