"Yes, we have no bananas!" Away to Barrow by the sea. Tues, Sept 3rd 7-45. -45

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

i still say he needs a run of wins

If he doesn't win the next two at home he'll lose loads more fans and future home games will be really tough.

If you want to be negative it's 2 pressure games and then a potential demolition by Arsenal.

Positive take is two home games and the chance to close the gap on a rival, followed by a great away day.

After that it breaks into a nice block of 5 games to run into Birmingham away, plus a tune-up against Villa's U21s.

We have a chance to put all this in the rear view mirror in September and October, but Evatt and the team will need to lift the crowd at home vs Hudds. It'll be 5 minutes of support, but if the team is flat the stadium will be a graveyard after that.

Insane loves his "must wins" and usually I smile about it, but Huddersfield looks like it might make or break a manager.

All that makes sense but I still think vs Hudds the right kind of draw might be OK. Battling. Creative. Goalscoring.

An insipid 0-0 won't inspire anyone, but if the forwards can start to gel and the defence generally look good, it will help.

I can't see a draw in any other game bar Arsenal dialing down the howls at all. Let alone a loss. In most seasons barring the Ken Anderson freefall, Bolton fans would expect to beat Reading (at home), Crawley, Northampton, Shrewsbury, Villa kids, Stevenage and Burton. And this isn't "most seasons' - this is one in which the manager is under intense scrutiny with the bar raised: promotion or sacking. There are mitigating factors, but mitigating factors look a lot like excuses to many people, especially if they're already hurt.

[Worthy4England]

I think he's currently sat at about 50/50 in terms of people who would get rid vs those who would keep. Might be being marginally shaded by "keepers."

It doesn't feel like 15 games and we'll consider it, and I reckon there's a good chunk on "game by game." What we don't know is where Shazza's at. Cost a few bob of almost certainly unplanned expense to get shut.

Interesting that you have pressure games as negative, I always had 'em down as positives, because you can put to bed doubts or reinforce your credentials. Better than having a game where folks might still come out the other side saying, yeah but we should've won that one.

Edit: this was in response to Ghosts post rather thsn DSBs..

[boltonboris]

"Pressure is a privilege" he said last year as we were in the Automatic hunts. Not sure he'd feel the same if the poor league form continues

anyhow, last night. That second half was more like us. I know it's easier to play like that in the second half after having 68% first half possession, but the intensity and quality in the 2nd half was miles better. Really encouraging. I'm not normally one of the "why can't we play like for both halves" but why can't we actually play like that for both halves?!

We moved the ball very quickly, won duels and got the ball back very quickly. I know we're not the only team on the pitch, but we showed what we can do

[BWFC_Insane]

Evatt and the players are under pressure - and the only acceptable outcome to fans who were let down last season is promotion.

The idea that one game here or there is the pressure point is wrong. It’s every game and rightly so.

The nice everyone is on it together and the players can enjoy rocking up and winning games of early 22/23 has gone and gone for good.

And that’s not a bad thing. You find out about teams and managers when they are under pressure. It is every game now. Not one or two. The margins in this league are very small. We’ve already had a terrible start in what looks like a strong league. The margins for error are gone.

They should feel under pressure they should feel fans are fed up. It’s their job to use that pressure to perform, not once or for a few weeks or even ten games, but every game.

[BWFC_Insane]

"Pressure is a privilege" he said last year as we were in the Automatic hunts. Not sure he'd feel the same if the poor league form continues

anyhow, last night. That second half was more like us. I know it's easier to play like that in the second half after having 68% first half possession, but the intensity and quality in the 2nd half was miles better. Really encouraging. I'm not normally one of the "why can't we play like for both halves" but why can't we actually play like that for both halves?!

We moved the ball very quickly, won duels and got the ball back very quickly. I know we're not the only team on the pitch, but we showed what we can do

I suspect it’s because Barrow had a team with 7 changes, made more changes at half time and during the second half and tired. You could see them just lose their ability to close us down.

We do look good when teams are unable to press or counter press effectively. The trouble is that we don’t look good when they can.

[Worthy4England]

i still say he needs a run of wins

If he doesn't win the next two at home he'll lose loads more fans and future home games will be really tough.

If you want to be negative it's 2 pressure games and then a potential demolition by Arsenal.

Positive take is two home games and the chance to close the gap on a rival, followed by a great away day.

After that it breaks into a nice block of 5 games to run into Birmingham away, plus a tune-up against Villa's U21s.

We have a chance to put all this in the rear view mirror in September and October, but Evatt and the team will need to lift the crowd at home vs Hudds. It'll be 5 minutes of support, but if the team is flat the stadium will be a graveyard after that.

Insane loves his "must wins" and usually I smile about it, but Huddersfield looks like it might make or break a manager.

All that makes sense but I still think vs Hudds the right kind of draw might be OK. Battling. Creative. Goalscoring.

An insipid 0-0 won't inspire anyone, but if the forwards can start to gel and the defence generally look good, it will help.

I can't see a draw in any other game bar Arsenal dialing down the howls at all. Let alone a loss. In most seasons barring the Ken Anderson freefall, Bolton fans would expect to beat Reading (at home), Crawley, Northampton, Shrewsbury, Villa kids, Stevenage and Burton. And this isn't "most seasons' - this is one in which the manager is under intense scrutiny with the bar raised: promotion or sacking. There are mitigating factors, but mitigating factors look a lot like excuses to many people, especially if they're already hurt.

I'm with this, but on the grounds I doubt the Board would step in after a decent draw...a draw would put us on 5 points from 5. I'm struggling for candidates who got promoted from that position in L1 (albeit just a glance over 5 years). Didn't spot one. There might be and outlier of two. Probably are. But that's precisely what they are. Outliers.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I think he's currently sat at about 50/50 in terms of people who would get rid vs those who would keep. Might be being marginally shaded by "keepers."

It doesn't feel like 15 games and we'll consider it, and I reckon there's a good chunk on "game by game." What we don't know is where Shazza's at. Cost a few bob of almost certainly unplanned expense to get shut.

Interesting that you have pressure games as negative, I always had 'em down as positives, because you can put to bed doubts or reinforce your credentials. Better than having a game where folks might still come out the other side saying, yeah but we should've won that one.

Edit: this was in response to Ghosts post rather thsn DSBs..

No worries. I've no idea where the dial is at - discontent will always be noisier than contentment or mild disappointment - but yeah 50/50 might not be far wrong. It changes by the game and as you say the important vote is Sharon's. It would/will be expensive to pot Evatt (and presumably Atherton, Crainey...) but clubs have to consider the cost/benefit of making the payoffs vs not making the playoffs...

As for "pressure games" (ie big rivals) - they are normally ones where a manager has more to lose, but as you say (and as I keep saying), right now he has to be near-perfect in the non-pressure games.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I still think vs Hudds the right kind of draw might be OK. Battling. Creative. Goalscoring.

I'm with this, but on the grounds I doubt the Board would step in after a decent draw...a draw would put us on 5 points from 5. I'm struggling for candidates who got promoted from that position in L1 (albeit just a glance over 5 years). Didn't spot one. There might be and outlier of two. Probably are. But that's precisely what they are. Outliers.

I was thinking more about the court of public opinion than boardroom long knives, though I agree Sharon probably won't sack him for 'only drawing with Huddersfield' – after an international break and just before a mostly winnable block of seven games in four weeks. Unless she sees the games as more winnable by some other bloke.

On the promotion outliers - aye it would take hella PPG to reach top two; if the target is 95, we'd need 90 from 41 games - 2.19ppg, up from the 2.06ppg need to get 95 from 46. Although stranger things have happened, it would make us more reliant (in September!) on promotion through the playoffs.... and, to bring it back to the main topic, I'm not sure a season of us sitting in the playoffs would entirely quell the disenchantment.

[Worthy4England]

I wasn't just talking top 2 mate, don't think I spotted any teams incuding Play Offs going up after a 5 from 5. I would be surprised if there weren't a couple, but if history is any guide, he's pretty much blown it, wothout a win.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I wasn't just talking top 2 mate, don't think I spotted any teams incuding Play Offs going up after a 5 from 5. I would be surprised if there weren't a couple, but if history is any guide, he's pretty much blown it, wothout a win.

Oh OK. In that case, we're less aligned – I think it's still possible to come from behind, so to speak, and into a successful playoff campaign. But, crucially and relevantly, I don't think Evatt would get that long - he really needs to be top six at least by the late October/early November run of four games against promo rivals Birmingham, Posh, Stockport and Rotherham. And probably still top six at least after that run...

[BWFC_Insane]

I wasn't just talking top 2 mate, don't think I spotted any teams incuding Play Offs going up after a 5 from 5. I would be surprised if there weren't a couple, but if history is any guide, he's pretty much blown it, wothout a win.

Oh OK. In that case, we're less aligned – I think it's still possible to come from behind, so to speak, and into a successful playoff campaign. But, crucially and relevantly, I don't think Evatt would get that long - he really needs to be top six at least by the late October/early November run of four games against promo rivals Birmingham, Posh, Stockport and Rotherham. And probably still top six at least after that run...

Top two. Nobody wants the play offs this season after last season.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I wasn't just talking top 2 mate, don't think I spotted any teams incuding Play Offs going up after a 5 from 5. I would be surprised if there weren't a couple, but if history is any guide, he's pretty much blown it, wothout a win.

Oh OK. In that case, we're less aligned – I think it's still possible to come from behind, so to speak, and into a successful playoff campaign. But, crucially and relevantly, I don't think Evatt would get that long - he really needs to be top six at least by the late October/early November run of four games against promo rivals Birmingham, Posh, Stockport and Rotherham. And probably still top six at least after that run...

Top two. Nobody wants the play offs this season after last season.

I quite agree, if only up to the point at which the choice becomes "play-offs" or "7th and lower". But by that point, I think Evatt will/would be gone.


Anyway enough about that, I've got some exciting developments in the world of mountain biking to read about.

[Prufrock]

I think he'll be gone if we don't go up this year, unless it's third place v close to second and perform in the play offs (e.g. done by a soft pen but play well)

But I don't think they'll sack him earlier unless we look like dropping out of contention even for the play offs.

I'm not saying that's what I'd do. But I think it's where the board will be.

The crowd... We need an upturn. Performances, goals and points. Soon. Huddersfield I doubt is directly going to see him sacked, but a damn squib and it's a tough road back.

[Worthy4England]

Done a bit more digging Teams with 5 points or less after 5 games (now extended it a bit to 11 years (for no other reason than it was meant to be 10 other than I didn't stop in time )...

3 got promoted - 2.9%
1 ended in the top 2 - 0.97%, and as a 100% fact, you knew that'd be in the year we were runners-up. Parky, you slack bastard - threw it away!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I think he'll be gone if we don't go up this year, unless it's third place v close to second and perform in the play offs (e.g. done by a soft pen but play well)

But I don't think they'll sack him earlier unless we look like dropping out of contention even for the play offs.

I'm not saying that's what I'd do. But I think it's where the board will be.

The crowd... We need an upturn. Performances, goals and points. Soon. Huddersfield I doubt is directly going to see him sacked, but a damn squib and it's a tough road back.

Say we were mid-table in Nov/Dec but only four points off the playoffs. The board might not be minded to sack him if the atmosphere at home games was convivial and supportive.

But do you think it would be? I don't think there were many Bolton fans who, asked last season, would be content with mid-table Third Division in late 2024. And Evattball, with its use (not always, but sometimes) of patient build-up, does not always placate the impatient.

And once 'inferior' away sides get the word - "keep them quiet for the first 15 and the fans turn" - he's on a very sticky wicket.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Done a bit more digging Teams with 5 points or less after 5 games (now extended it a bit to 11 years (for no other reason than it was meant to be 10 other than I didn't stop in time )...

3 got promoted - 2.9%
1 ended in the top 2 - 0.97%, and as a 100% fact, you knew that'd be in the year we were runners-up. Parky, you slack bastard - threw it away!

I forgot how bad Chris Wilder's start was - until they stopped for fish and chips on the way home from... Millwall was it?

Sorry to send you back to the books but I would be intrigued to know how many sides made the playoffs (and lost) from that start. I still say, mind you, that "maybe we'll go up in the play-offs" isn't going to soothe many - but I just wonder what the historical odds are.

(You might also say, albeit quantitatively unprovable either way, that surely there have been few sides on 5pts from 5 games with as good a squad as ours. That's a serious frontline for 18th place.)

[Worthy4England]

Made the play-offs is about 7%..

But that would just be diluting our ambition for the sake of near mediocrity

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Made the play-offs is about 7%..

But that would just be diluting our ambition for the sake of near mediocrity

As I say I don’t think it would save Evatt’s season, but what happens to us is more important.

Although they weren’t as far back, Sunderland and Oxford (to name two recent ones camples; there may be more) changed horses mid-stream and went up. If that’s what it takes, so be it. For now he’ll get more time from the board, which is what matters most to him; what matters most to fans is where we end up.

[The_Gun]

I think he'll be gone if we don't go up this year, unless it's third place v close to second and perform in the play offs (e.g. done by a soft pen but play well)

But I don't think they'll sack him earlier unless we look like dropping out of contention even for the play offs.

I'm not saying that's what I'd do. But I think it's where the board will be.

The crowd... We need an upturn. Performances, goals and points. Soon. Huddersfield I doubt is directly going to see him sacked, but a damn squib and it's a tough road back.

Say we were mid-table in Nov/Dec but only four points off the playoffs. The board might not be minded to sack him if the atmosphere at home games was convivial and supportive.

But do you think it would be? I don't think there were many Bolton fans who, asked last season, would be content with mid-table Third Division in late 2024. And Evattball, with its use (not always, but sometimes) of patient build-up, does not always placate the impatient.

And once 'inferior' away sides get the word - "keep them quiet for the first 15 and the fans turn" - he's on a very sticky wicket.

This is the key point, for me. Shazza may well have limitless patience, but if the crowds start declining and/or the home atmosphere becomes toxic, how long before her hand is forced?

I don’t go to home matches, so can only really go off what I read online (mostly on here), but it seems as though we’re only a loss or two from the crowd vibes getting really bad.

[GhostoftheBok]

Putting pressure games in the negative was rather more a nod to the "Evatt out" position that we don't win games with pressure on them, rather than anything inherent about pressure games and their relative merits.