The Politics Thread

[BWFC_Insane]

Never underestimate America's capacity for stupid. It even outstrips our own.

The UK is in the unusual position of being one of the most ‘sane’ developed countries right now. Europe is a mess. USA have been a mess a while.

I guess if it wasn’t for near neighbours Ireland making us look an absolute shower we’d probably feel this more strongly.

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

Never underestimate America's capacity for stupid. It even outstrips our own.

The UK is in the unusual position of being one of the most ‘sane’ developed countries right now. Europe is a mess. USA have been a mess a while.

I guess if it wasn’t for near neighbours Ireland making us look an absolute shower we’d probably feel this more strongly.

I strongly suspect we're the next election away from bringing back the Tories and your sentiment will be reversed.

[BWFC_Insane]

Never underestimate America's capacity for stupid. It even outstrips our own.

The UK is in the unusual position of being one of the most ‘sane’ developed countries right now. Europe is a mess. USA have been a mess a while.

I guess if it wasn’t for near neighbours Ireland making us look an absolute shower we’d probably feel this more strongly.

I strongly suspect we're the next election away from bringing back the Tories and your sentiment will be reversed.

Even under the Tories with Sunak as PM would be the case imho. Badenoch - less so maybe but we will see. I mean Badenoch plays into the culture wars but is still removed from the Le Pen or Trump or Orban or Farridge.

[Worthy4England]

Think she might just shade it...You seen his geriatric, cock-sucking (not perjorative he's actually been blow-jobbing his mic), racist rallys? They're worse than last go.

Think Harris will be clear winner on popular vote, but for sure it's mighty close on the swing states.He's not helped himself calling Puerto Ricans garbage. His core love it, but they won't carry the election without folks in the centre. Roe v Wade still a big issue, so I think she might shade it.

Az probably Trump - 11 Votes
Georgia - 1 point game - Split - 16 Votes, last go Biden
Michigan Harris - 15 Votes
Nevada Harris - 6 Votes
NC - 1 point game - Split - 16 Votes, last go Trump
Pennsylvania - 1 point - split - 19 votes, last go Biden
Wisconsin - Harris - 10 votes

I reckon Harris has 31 v Trump 11, with 51 too close. So she certainly needs some of PA, NC and GA....which are marginal calls within marginal states...

Yeah my worry is that those inclined to vote for Trump - like that sort of stuff. I’m not convinced there are that many normal republicans who will say ‘look I’m right leaning but this man is a disgrace’. There are a few. Sure. But I worry not enough to counterbalance the seemingly disenfranchised minorities and working class men drifting to Trump from Biden (because Harris doesn’t have the same affinity to those groups Biden did).

But we will see. It’s one where I sort of gave up any hope on ages ago and watch fairly dispassionately now. They’ve lost their way completely that is for sure. And whilst clearly infinitely better than Trump, Harris is not very convincing at least to me. Feel like there are many stronger democratic candidates who wimped out of this one.

The Reps haven't won the popular vote for yonks iirc. So you don't need many. What was PA last time? about 80k votes out of 7m? about 1%...

[Worthy4England]

Never underestimate America's capacity for stupid. It even outstrips our own.

They've had more practice to be fair...

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

Never underestimate America's capacity for stupid. It even outstrips our own.

The UK is in the unusual position of being one of the most ‘sane’ developed countries right now. Europe is a mess. USA have been a mess a while.

I guess if it wasn’t for near neighbours Ireland making us look an absolute shower we’d probably feel this more strongly.

I strongly suspect we're the next election away from bringing back the Tories and your sentiment will be reversed.

Even under the Tories with Sunak as PM would be the case imho. Badenoch - less so maybe but we will see. I mean Badenoch plays into the culture wars but is still removed from the Le Pen or Trump or Orban or Farridge.

I doubt Badenoch will make it to the next election as leader. Labour keep making dumb needless errors to the point a lot of folk will see them the same as the last lot that made lots of dumb errors. If Labour don't start being more savvy then with the way our media are they'll nhave a big problem next time round.

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

Never underestimate America's capacity for stupid. It even outstrips our own.

They've had more practice to be fair...

In a lot less time too. Very impressive

[BWFC_Insane]

Never underestimate America's capacity for stupid. It even outstrips our own.

The UK is in the unusual position of being one of the most ‘sane’ developed countries right now. Europe is a mess. USA have been a mess a while.

I guess if it wasn’t for near neighbours Ireland making us look an absolute shower we’d probably feel this more strongly.

I strongly suspect we're the next election away from bringing back the Tories and your sentiment will be reversed.

Even under the Tories with Sunak as PM would be the case imho. Badenoch - less so maybe but we will see. I mean Badenoch plays into the culture wars but is still removed from the Le Pen or Trump or Orban or Farridge.

I doubt Badenoch will make it to the next election as leader. Labour keep making dumb needless errors to the point a lot of folk will see them the same as the last lot that made lots of dumb errors. If Labour don't start being more savvy then with the way our media are they'll nhave a big problem next time round.

I think there are only three real things that matter for Labour.

NHS waiting lists.
The economy.
Small boats.

By 2029 they need at least two of the three in good shape with the economy being one of the two.

If they don’t have that it doesn’t matter. And if they do early teething troubles become irrelevant. But they have the issue of modern news and social media being a very different beast to 1997. And haven’t seemingly worked that out yet.

[Prufrock]

The last leader in this country to win an election from opposition who was *even an MP* in their party's first term in opposition was Thatcher. I'm not sure whoever replaces Badenoch will even be leader come the next election.. Half their parliament party is on the front bench and more than half are full on nutters.

The only way labour don't win the election is if they feck it (insane's list isn't a bad start) and if so there is more chance of reform winning than the Tories.

America... feck knows. Every sensible poll has either winning within the margin of error. It feels very important but I can't even think about it. Second world war just about fading from living memory... It feels like a test for liberal democracy.. But either way the most patently unfit for office candidate in history is going to get high 40s % if the vote. Half the world is on a knife edge.

[Worthy4England]

^^ Some early counties and Florida, Trump doing well, but the swing states look to be very marginal one way or t'other. Just a few early indications, none of which are necessarily too illuminating...

[Worthy4England]

Looking very tough for Harris right now and with what looks to be a couple of senate pick ups and a majority on Supreme Court, I think shit might get "interesting."

[BWFC_Insane]

Dreadful. But saw this coming all the way. Harris was the worst possible opponent to put against Trump and I never saw how she’d win over the same voters that white working class man Biden did in 2020. I think the democrats lost their way since 22 - I don’t think they had a gambit beyond rolling Joe out again and that was always going to be unlikely.

Most of all it’s dreadful news for the world and Ukraine in particular. I do fear as many are commenting we are now in a period not unlike the 1930’s that will only resolve with some pretty major international war. People have forgotten. Or never known.

[Worthy4England]

You could certainly conceive that she might not have won, I was feeling quite upbeat yesterday. I thought she did ok with limited time coming off the bottom half of Biden's ticket, with low approval ratings for Biden and an economy that, like most, have experienced high inflation. It's fine having plans to increase employment (which I think Biden's done pretty well), but the main rump of people already working, when you increase taxation and have high inflation puts more of a squeeze on, and economy looked to rate much higher than immigration (for example) in exit polls.

[BWFC_Insane]

You could certainly conceive that she might not have won, I was feeling quite upbeat yesterday. I thought she did ok with limited time coming off the bottom half of Biden's ticket, with low approval ratings for Biden and an economy that, like most, have experienced high inflation. It's fine having plans to increase employment (which I think Biden's done pretty well), but the main rump of people already working, when you increase taxation and have high inflation puts more of a squeeze on, and economy looked to rate much higher than immigration (for example) in exit polls.

Honestly yes the economic position which the Dems have done well with in the circumstances has hurt them massively. And I don’t think she ran a terrible campaign through far from a good one.

But you are asking people in the rust belt who are or have flirted with voting for Trump - to vote for a black woman from California who was a lawyer. So economically perceived to be part of the elite and of course the identikit ‘woke’ candidate. I never saw how that would work out. Biden won those votes because he’s in essence one of them. A white man from the rust belt who has been perceived to have worked for them during his political career. And he only just won. It wasn’t a landslide.

But those swing voters - Hispanic and black men and mainly white working class rust belters…I just never saw how Harris would appeal. And she had no policy either so always had to be about her and her story. Never felt likely to me.

[Worthy4England]

What I find interesting, is the notion that the whites won't vote for her (in certain quarters) because she's black - even though Trump messaged many times she "wasn't really," and the hispanic and black men wouldn't side with her the other way - that to me, has to be about a lot more than "pick a colour," and certainly in Georgia, that seemed like it counted.

In PA as an example, she's lost votes in strong Dem counties - and quite a chunk - Trump is 170k in front, she's lost 150k dem voters from last time. I don't think the 150,000k are "natural Trumpers"...

[BWFC_Insane]

What I find interesting, is the notion that the whites won't vote for her (in certain quarters) because she's black - even though Trump messaged many times she "wasn't really," and the hispanic and black men wouldn't side with her the other way - that to me, has to be about a lot more than "pick a colour," and certainly in Georgia, that seemed like it counted.

In PA as an example, she's lost votes in strong Dem counties - and quite a chunk - Trump is 170k in front, she's lost 150k dem voters from last time. I don't think the 150,000k are "natural Trumpers"...

It’s a mix of stuff. Plenty of these places have a decent number of racists who might vote for Biden but not Obama say. But I don’t think that’s the really big issue.

Harris represents everything that people who flirt with populism don’t like, diversity, sense of eliteness, California, ‘wokeness’. None of that is fair or rational but it’s similar to labour making Emily Thornberry leader and expecting to win the red wall seats. She just embodies what voters who might go either way currently dislike in politics. Dyed in the wool labour folks probably prefer her to Starmer. But man who voted for Johnson and is not a bit disillusioned might vote for Starmer but absolutely wouldn’t for Thornberry.

I felt right from the start that was the Harris problem. I don’t think it’s as simplistic as skin colour or gender or being Californian or a lawyer or her history of what is perceived as being a bit wokey - it’s the fact all those are packaged together. Add in incumbency too - and the fact that incumbents are being obliterated round the world generally and are the fact that she annoyed the Muslim population over Gaza etc…it never felt to me like she really had a chance. I didn’t see the narrative and she never really created one. She enthused the democratic base way more than Biden did. In the same way Corbyn enthused the left a billion times more than Starmer ever would or could. But ultimately I’d say a measure of your chance of success against right wing populism is being able to not enthuse your left wing or centre left base. Doing so means you will very likely lose.

[Worthy4England]

I think really, the problem went back before Harris (I mean she wouldn't have been my pick, I think Walz came out pretty decently). Biden hasn't been beating the drum nationally for a good while now - odd speeches here and there. They needed to land "you're going ga ga, mate" probably three years back, but three years back it was all "set-piece" speeches in pretty friendly environments (in that not a lot of direct Q&A to watch him bumble,) so he/they never had to acknowledge there was a problem. When he did, there was no time for a primary...etc.etc.

[Hoboh]

What I find interesting, is the notion that the whites won't vote for her (in certain quarters) because she's black - even though Trump messaged many times she "wasn't really," and the hispanic and black men wouldn't side with her the other way - that to me, has to be about a lot more than "pick a colour," and certainly in Georgia, that seemed like it counted.

In PA as an example, she's lost votes in strong Dem counties - and quite a chunk - Trump is 170k in front, she's lost 150k dem voters from last time. I don't think the 150,000k are "natural Trumpers"...

It’s a mix of stuff. Plenty of these places have a decent number of racists who might vote for Biden but not Obama say. But I don’t think that’s the really big issue.

Harris represents everything that people who flirt with populism don’t like, diversity, sense of eliteness, California, ‘wokeness’. None of that is fair or rational but it’s similar to labour making Emily Thornberry leader and expecting to win the red wall seats. She just embodies what voters who might go either way currently dislike in politics. Dyed in the wool labour folks probably prefer her to Starmer. But man who voted for Johnson and is not a bit disillusioned might vote for Starmer but absolutely wouldn’t for Thornberry.

I felt right from the start that was the Harris problem. I don’t think it’s as simplistic as skin colour or gender or being Californian or a lawyer or her history of what is perceived as being a bit wokey - it’s the fact all those are packaged together. Add in incumbency too - and the fact that incumbents are being obliterated round the world generally and are the fact that she annoyed the Muslim population over Gaza etc…it never felt to me like she really had a chance. I didn’t see the narrative and she never really created one. She enthused the democratic base way more than Biden did. In the same way Corbyn enthused the left a billion times more than Starmer ever would or could. But ultimately I’d say a measure of your chance of success against right wing populism is being able to not enthuse your left wing or centre left base. Doing so means you will very likely lose.

I love 'the right wing populism' routes yet the left don't do that pandering to every diversity they can, do they?
I'm loving the meltdown of the Liberal left, having said that, I hope it doesn't get too near the plastic filled celebs who backed Harris, might not be good for their body parts.
Still, I suppose Harris can get interviewed by wegovey Oprah and poor out her grief.

The Tories shot their self in the foot otherwise there is no way we would have a labour government, we won't next time, they have already self harmed.

[BWFC_Insane]

What I find interesting, is the notion that the whites won't vote for her (in certain quarters) because she's black - even though Trump messaged many times she "wasn't really," and the hispanic and black men wouldn't side with her the other way - that to me, has to be about a lot more than "pick a colour," and certainly in Georgia, that seemed like it counted.

In PA as an example, she's lost votes in strong Dem counties - and quite a chunk - Trump is 170k in front, she's lost 150k dem voters from last time. I don't think the 150,000k are "natural Trumpers"...

It’s a mix of stuff. Plenty of these places have a decent number of racists who might vote for Biden but not Obama say. But I don’t think that’s the really big issue.

Harris represents everything that people who flirt with populism don’t like, diversity, sense of eliteness, California, ‘wokeness’. None of that is fair or rational but it’s similar to labour making Emily Thornberry leader and expecting to win the red wall seats. She just embodies what voters who might go either way currently dislike in politics. Dyed in the wool labour folks probably prefer her to Starmer. But man who voted for Johnson and is not a bit disillusioned might vote for Starmer but absolutely wouldn’t for Thornberry.

I felt right from the start that was the Harris problem. I don’t think it’s as simplistic as skin colour or gender or being Californian or a lawyer or her history of what is perceived as being a bit wokey - it’s the fact all those are packaged together. Add in incumbency too - and the fact that incumbents are being obliterated round the world generally and are the fact that she annoyed the Muslim population over Gaza etc…it never felt to me like she really had a chance. I didn’t see the narrative and she never really created one. She enthused the democratic base way more than Biden did. In the same way Corbyn enthused the left a billion times more than Starmer ever would or could. But ultimately I’d say a measure of your chance of success against right wing populism is being able to not enthuse your left wing or centre left base. Doing so means you will very likely lose.

I love 'the right wing populism' routes yet the left don't do that pandering to every diversity they can, do they?
I'm loving the meltdown of the Liberal left, having said that, I hope it doesn't get too near the plastic filled celebs who backed Harris, might not be good for their body parts.
Still, I suppose Harris can get interviewed by wegovey Oprah and poor out her grief.

The Tories shot their self in the foot otherwise there is no way we would have a labour government, we won't next time, they have already self harmed.

There is plenty of left wing populism about. It just tends to be less insidious than the likes of Trump and Farage as it isn’t suggesting they will round up anyone with a different political view and jail them or worse. Corbyn would be an example. Absolutely disastrous but hardly going to take away women’s rights or whatever. So it’s there. It’s not good. But it’s much less dangerous.

And you are full blown sucked into the populist rabbit hole. ‘Own the libs’ is hardly a great reason to celebrate but that’s all it is. It’s about division and hate.

I don’t think anyone knows what will happen in 5 years time but I personally don’t think Labour have a chance of winning again. Unless Tories and reform merge or Tories have big surge you are looking at a split result again and that currently favours Labour.

[Hoboh]

When you attack the elderly

When you attack the charities

And then, attack your core supporters, the students, to pay off minorities driving trains and Gretas friends, you think you will win?

People's memories will stretch way beyond one term and all this won't be forgotten.

Oh, and insidious? I suppose shutting people and free speech doesn't count then?