Pirates off the starboard bow. Home to Bristol Sat 5th April 3-0 'clock.

[TANGODANCER]

Back home at the Tough Sheet after a bad-tempered scuffle with the Pies on Tuesday, we did at least get the only thing that counts, three precious points. No use pretending we out-played Wigan, we didn't, but at least showed a spark of effort in getting the win. Can we make it the start of the great survival bid? We really do need to mend our ways and increase our Weetabix allowance because we're being bullied by teams that are effectively well below us in talent.

So, do we grow some and learn lessons? It's pretty obvious that the beat Bolton plan is to fly at us and if we stop them, cheat and do the dandelion grass dive. We'll just have to give as good as we get and start by sinking the Bristol Jolly Roger. Stand by to repel boarders...

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

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1230 Reading-Wycombe
1230 Wrexham-Burton
1500 Charlton-Lincoln
1500 Exeter-Stockport
1500 Huddersfield-Mansfield
1500 Orient-Wiggin
1500 Rotherham-Blackpool

I'd expect all the contenders to win, bar maybe Reading. Their opponents Wycombe then travel to play Huddersfield on Tuesday, so the Chairboys could do us a double favour this week - which could make us the strong favourites to face them if they end up 3rd; worth noting that yon Huddersfield trip is their game in hand on Wrexham, who don't play midweek, so you imagine they'll be bang up for it (and they're also the division's best away team, only the 6th-best at home).

Obviously a long way to go but if we can start to solidify 6th spot, it could be interesting watching Wycombe and Wrexham wrestling with each other trying not to finish 3rd... (both play host to Charlton later this month, then Wycombe host Stockport on the last day...)

[Mar]

Screenshot 2025-04-04 at 14.32.32.png
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1230 Reading-Wycombe
1230 Wrexham-Burton
1500 Charlton-Lincoln
1500 Exeter-Stockport
1500 Huddersfield-Mansfield
1500 Orient-Wiggin
1500 Rotherham-Blackpool

I'd expect all the contenders to win, bar maybe Reading. Their opponents Wycombe then travel to play Huddersfield on Tuesday, so the Chairboys could do us a double favour this week - which could make us the strong favourites to face them if they end up 3rd; worth noting that yon Huddersfield trip is their game in hand on Wrexham, who don't play midweek, so you imagine they'll be bang up for it (and they're also the division's best away team, only the 6th-best at home).

Obviously a long way to go but if we can start to solidify 6th spot, it could be interesting watching Wycombe and Wrexham wrestling with each other trying not to finish 3rd... (both play host to Charlton later this month, then Wycombe host Stockport on the last day...)

Very much looks like we're playing for the final play off spot rather than any of the others

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Very much looks like we're playing for the final play off spot rather than any of the others

Aye. A lot can happen, as we found when we lost three games on the bounce and Charlton/Stockport both went WLW. Those six points dropped are the majority of the difference between us and those central two, who will both now know it's unlikely both Wrexham and Wycombe - effectively 6/7pts clear of them with 6 games left - will wobble enough to open up the final auto slot.

[Worthy4England]

I do worry about some of the teams within striking distance and their respective GD's....

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

I do worry about some of the teams within striking distance and their respective GD's....

Yep. We are in the box seat but we have to make sure we don't jump out of it. Perhaps it's for the best that the chaser in best form, Blackpool has played one more than the rest of them... and not only do they not play Tuesday, they have 13 days off after tomorrow, as next weekend's scheduled opponents are busy. Those opponents don't visit Bloomfield till the final midweek, by which time they will be the champions and possibly chasing records.

Looking at the run-ins, I'm not sure I'd swap ours with anyone except maybe Reading. Usual caveats apply.
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[Mar]

I do worry about some of the teams within striking distance and their respective GD's....

Understandable. We've not really left ourselves with a cushion.

Leyton Orient (59 from 39)
Blackpool (60 from 40)
Huddersfield (61 from 39)
Reading (62 from 39)
Bolton (63 from 39)

There's enough teams in the chasing pack to predict that at least one of those will give it a really good go. We're in pole position in the also-ran league but whether we will maintain that is another story.

I'd be surprised if Reading manage to get there with all their off the field issues and fighting a similar goal difference to us. We should have enough to challenge points wise, but it'll be that GD that may become the stickler.


Barnsley just outside have enough games against the also-rans to be able to put in a chase.

Huddersfield face Leyton Orient on the final day so that may hamper their chances, as does their game against Wycombe and Stockport, although by the time they face Stockport they will be already qualified for the play offs so that's anyones guess on how that one will go.

All about consistency. There's nothing in anyones run in that makes me think things will change substantially.

[Mar]

I do worry about some of the teams within striking distance and their respective GD's....

Yep. We are in the box seat but we have to make sure we don't jump out of it. Perhaps it's for the best that the chaser in best form, Blackpool has played one more than the rest of them... and not only do they not play Tuesday, they have 13 days off after tomorrow, as next weekend's scheduled opponents are busy. Those opponents don't visit Bloomfield till the final midweek, by which time they will be the champions and possibly chasing records.

Looking at the run-ins, I'm not sure I'd swap ours with anyone except maybe Reading. Usual caveats apply.
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Screenshot 2025-04-04 at 16.48.53.png

That's the sort of mental checking I was doing in my own head, its much nicer to see laid out on a spreadsheet, cheers DSB.


Interesting that Wycombe have 4 out of 8 matches against teams in the top 10. Their league position probably flatters them going off the state of their challenge. Looks like it's Wrexham's runner up spot to lose.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Reading's problem - apart from the obvious - is that 5 of their 7 games are away, and they're 19th in the 'away table'. So it's possible that they're a few points above the mean.

Huddersfield could be anything, very hard to predict. They've got two home games now against Mansfield and Wycombe, but again they're better away (6th-best) than at home (10th) so it may not be the boon it seems. Their trips are to buggardly Burton, then Stockport on Easter Monday and the long trip to Exeter five days later.

Blackpool's season gets weird after tomorrow, with that big gap followed by 5 games in 16 days including the current top two.

Orient have very winnable games until their last two - home to Wycombe and away at Huddersfield.

As for us - well it doesn't take a huge flight of fancy to imagine us arsing it right up against Wycombe, bloody Barnsley or Posh. But we'll see.

[irie Cee Bee]

Football is never true to form. Its unpredictabiity is why we love the game so much. In this run in, its who holds their nerves best. We are in the top six now so we are the target of the teams below. They will all be checking on our scores. We need to not flinch under the pressure. Winning at the death on Tuesday showed that our players have the heart to fight. Thats all I ask for now. Fight every game. The points will work itself out thereafter.

[TonyDomingos]

Football is never true to form. Its unpredictabiity is why we love the game so much. In this run in, its who holds their nerves best. We are in the top six now so we are the target of the teams below. They will all be checking on our scores. We need to not flinch under the pressure. Winning at the death on Tuesday showed that our players have the heart to fight. Thats all I ask for now. Fight every game. The points will work itself out thereafter.

Spot on. Coz we'll thrash these tomorrow and we'll all be giving it HMS Scrape The Play-Offs, only to lose the next three. YHIHF.

[The_Gun]

Even though on paper this should be a straightforward home win, these have got enough about them to cause us problems if we show any complacency. I’d wager our defence will be tested more than they were on Tuesday.

Unless anyone’s injured or particularly fatigued, I’d anticipate the only change to our starting lineup being Morley in for Randall.

3-1 Whites.

[BorsdaneWhite]

Collins seems to lose all composure against these. He’s due a performance.

[DJBlu]

Just keep winning.

[Tails07]

Intrigued if and when he chooses to rest either McAtee, Collins or JOT, played alot of minutes and obviously we can't flog them to the point they breakdown which would be devastating for the season run in. Suspect Collins will play today as his old team though.

[The_Gun]

Intrigued if and when he chooses to rest either McAtee, Collins or JOT, played alot of minutes and obviously we can't flog them to the point they breakdown which would be devastating for the season run in. Suspect Collins will play today as his old team though.

The problem is there are basically no alternatives. Schumacher clearly doesn’t rate Lolos, and Etete isn’t fit and also potentially terrible.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Intrigued if and when he chooses to rest either McAtee, Collins or JOT, played alot of minutes and obviously we can't flog them to the point they breakdown which would be devastating for the season run in. Suspect Collins will play today as his old team though.

The problem is there are basically no alternatives. Schumacher clearly doesn’t rate Lolos, and Etete isn’t fit and also potentially terrible.

...while at left wing-back, JOT has started 7 of the last 8 (and played most if not all in 5 of those).

Schuey seems to see Schon more as an attacking midfielder (he'd rather play JOT at LWB and Schon as a hybrid 10), and the Hungarian might be injured anyway.

Murphy played LWB in the new gaffer's first game at Reading, but the young Irishman seems to have fallen out of favour after his early mistake against today's opponents down in ciderworld, despite much talk ahead of the game about him needing to focus quickly.

[Worthy4England]

Even though on paper this should be a straightforward home win, these have got enough about them to cause us problems if we show any complacency. I’d wager our defence will be tested more than they were on Tuesday.

Unless anyone’s injured or particularly fatigued, I’d anticipate the only change to our starting lineup being Morley in for Randall.

3-1 Whites.

Guessing Morley was just one match ban?

Surely the cunning plan from this point is to try and nab a 4 point advantage over the next 6 games and grab a day off? Easier said than done, but not sure there will be any unnecessary rotation.

[Armchair Wanderer]

Talking of home/away performances... Bolton slightly better at home than away in terms of PPG and GD but 8th position at home and 7th away. Not much in it. It feels like some away games have less pressure and the team seems to play better, but data doesn't lie.

Looking at it another way, 1.50 PPG away is pretty decent compared with everyone outside the top 3, but 1.74 PPG at home isn't as good as the top 5, or Reading. So, you could also say that home games have been the problem.

Decent win today with a few goals please.

[jmjhb]

Let's get that momentum going.