The Politics Thread

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

The EU "costs" us peanuts compared to the size of our economy. Thats £9bn. Sounds a lot doesn't it? Big number. Scary. Our GDP is $2.43trillion (thats trillion) according to google.

Somewhere in the region of 60% of our overseas trade goes through the EU in some form. Without access to the trade agreements that comes with being a member, that 60% would be in jeopardy. As the yanks say, do the math(s).

The trade agreements are quite possible without EU membership.

That false dichotomy doesn't move the discussion on any more than the others do.

[thebish]

The EU "costs" us peanuts compared to the size of our economy. Thats £9bn. Sounds a lot doesn't it? Big number. Scary.

this is one of the things that always irritates me... in interviews - a politician will spout a BIG number.. she might say "did you know - we are spending £4million per minute on Welfare?"

and there is no context - it juts sounds like a big number... I REALLY wish one day an interviewer would have the nouse to ask..

"so, how much do YOU thing we should be spending PER MINUTE on welfare?"

[Hoboh]

This graphic shows that though Germany is the biggest net contributor its large population means the tax burden for each citizen is lower than for Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark.

Greece remains the largest beneficiary from the budget but the new member states in Central and Eastern Europe are all net recipients from the budget and the flow of funds to them is growing.
To an extent the EU's richer countries help fund the development of the poorer ones.

[Hoboh]

The EU "costs" us peanuts compared to the size of our economy. Thats £9bn. Sounds a lot doesn't it? Big number. Scary. Our GDP is $2.43trillion (thats trillion) according to google.

Somewhere in the region of 60% of our overseas trade goes through the EU in some form. Without access to the trade agreements that comes with being a member, that 60% would be in jeopardy. As the yanks say, do the math(s).

The Math(s) for you

There is a jaw-dropping statistic in the new Balance of Payments figures. As usual, Britain ran a massive trade deficit with the rest of the EU, only partially offset by its surplus with the rest of the world. Our current account deficit with the EU in 2010 was £46.6 billion; our surplus with the rest of the world was £10.3 billion. These figures shouldn't surprise anyone: since 1973, the United Kingdom has tended to be in surplus with every continent except Europe.

What is surprising is the leap in our net contribution to the Brussels budget, from £5.3 billion in 2009 to £9.2 billion in 2010. Our gross contribution, which is in many ways the more relevant figure, is £19.7 billion.

So for those simple minded folk like me you add £46.6 and 19.7 billion together and figure the EU is better off to the tune of £66.3 billion from us, do you think they'd like to loose that?

[Lord Kangana]

The EU "costs" us peanuts compared to the size of our economy. Thats £9bn. Sounds a lot doesn't it? Big number. Scary. Our GDP is $2.43trillion (thats trillion) according to google.

Somewhere in the region of 60% of our overseas trade goes through the EU in some form. Without access to the trade agreements that comes with being a member, that 60% would be in jeopardy. As the yanks say, do the math(s).

The trade agreements are quite possible without EU membership.

That false dichotomy doesn't move the discussion on any more than the others do.

I'm sorry, but it would take an as-yet-unheard-of level of naivety to believe that we'd simply be allowed to leave and still retain our trade agreements and nothing would change.

Moreover, plenty of companies that relocated to Britain to be able to trade within the EU (such as Nissan in Sunderland, a massive, irreplacable employer since the Thatcher government closed the profitable shipyards and laid down a covenant that they couldn't be reopened) will simply move back within the EU trading boundaries. I cannot for one moment believe that they would be allowed to continue to operate as they do. What benefit is that to the remaining member states? You seriously believe they would tolerate such a situation?

The only figures I've heard bandied about (since you ask, a discussion on newsnight where the Europhobe's best argument was "I hate all these Brussels Bureaucrats etc etc snooze") were given by an economist (not a politician) who starkly and simply stated that straightforward withdrawal from the EU could cost our economy as much as 15-20%. When set aside the recent figures of the odd percentage here and there that has everyone up in arms about the state of our economy, its about time the right/UKIP/Tory "Euro-sceptics" did a bit of growing up and actually presented the public with the potential consequences, rather than pandering to the crowd.

[Hoboh]

Here's another reason!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... tions.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I know the game you are in likes cheap waiters but this takes the p*ss

[Lord Kangana]

The Daily Mail.

I give up.

[BWFC_Insane]

The Daily Mail.

I give up.

Yeah but I mean, come on, how could you not be concerned by statements such as this?

Tory Philip Hollobone says Britain's fields are under threat from a wave of Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants

Our fields? Our lovely fields? Our green and pleasant land? Threatened? By outsiders?

How very dare they.

[Hoboh]

The Daily Mail.

I give up.

Yeah but I mean, come on, how could you not be concerned by statements such as this?

Tory Philip Hollobone says Britain's fields are under threat from a wave of Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants

Our fields? Our lovely fields? Our green and pleasant land? Threatened? By outsiders?

How very dare they.

Yeah and I suppose you two were in the 'there will only be a few Eastern Europeans coming in the last time' camp!

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Medium sized hotel just up the road from me has three Poles, two Romanians, two Hungarians, a Bulgarian and an Estonian for staff. The owner says they are 'remarkable workers'. What he really means is he can get away with paying them peanuts and getting them to work for fifteen hours a day. Five years ago his staff consisted entirely of Iraquis and Somalis. The Iraquis and Somalis were 'remarkable workers' too - but they've learnt to play the system better to their own advantage. In five years time the Eastern Europeans will be bringing their extended families over to their subsidised large houses too. By then no doubt the Syrians, Libyans, and Tuaregs will be the remarkable workers of the future.
All absolutely necessary of course, because after all where would the economic miracle that is capitalist growth be without hotels?

[BWFC_Insane]

The Daily Mail.

I give up.

Yeah but I mean, come on, how could you not be concerned by statements such as this?

Tory Philip Hollobone says Britain's fields are under threat from a wave of Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants

Our fields? Our lovely fields? Our green and pleasant land? Threatened? By outsiders?

How very dare they.

Yeah and I suppose you two were in the 'there will only be a few Eastern Europeans coming in the last time' camp!

Camp? Camps?

No man, its the fields that are under threat, not the camps.

Get yersen out into the moors and defend them for your lives.

We cannot let them take the fields.

[Hoboh]

The Daily Mail.

I give up.

Yeah but I mean, come on, how could you not be concerned by statements such as this?

Tory Philip Hollobone says Britain's fields are under threat from a wave of Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants

Our fields? Our lovely fields? Our green and pleasant land? Threatened? By outsiders?

How very dare they.

Yeah and I suppose you two were in the 'there will only be a few Eastern Europeans coming in the last time' camp!

Camp? Camps?

No man, its the fields that are under threat, not the camps.

Get yersen out into the moors and defend them for your lives.

We cannot let them take the fields.

Just lets vote on the EU, soon prove one way or the other who is the minority view or does democractic not fit socialist view points
Anyway mr tree hugger what about the effects of a fresh concrete jungle on our climate, flooding etc?

[Lord Kangana]

I would suggest that our robust planning regulations will comfortably deal with any mass building programmes.

That is, of course, unless someone changes them. And then trys to pin it on Europe.

[BWFC_Insane]

Just lets vote on the EU, soon prove one way or the other who is the minority view or does democractic not fit socialist view points
Anyway mr tree hugger what about the effects of a fresh concrete jungle on our climate, flooding etc?

Ok then, I'll play.

I'll let you have a vote on the EU, if we're also allowed a vote on public sector spending cuts.

Cos I think the governments spending cuts would be the minority view.

You ok with that?

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

The EU "costs" us peanuts compared to the size of our economy. Thats £9bn. Sounds a lot doesn't it? Big number. Scary. Our GDP is $2.43trillion (thats trillion) according to google.

Somewhere in the region of 60% of our overseas trade goes through the EU in some form. Without access to the trade agreements that comes with being a member, that 60% would be in jeopardy. As the yanks say, do the math(s).

The trade agreements are quite possible without EU membership.

That false dichotomy doesn't move the discussion on any more than the others do.

I'm sorry, but it would take an as-yet-unheard-of level of naivety to believe that we'd simply be allowed to leave and still retain our trade agreements and nothing would change.

As for Thatcher as shipbuilding... probably not worth discussing. Either you think it's right for a government to subsidise an industry against cheaper, international competition using tax receipts from other industries, or you don't.

Moreover, plenty of companies that relocated to Britain to be able to trade within the EU (such as Nissan in Sunderland, a massive, irreplacable employer since the Thatcher government closed the profitable shipyards and laid down a covenant that they couldn't be reopened) will simply move back within the EU trading boundaries. I cannot for one moment believe that they would be allowed to continue to operate as they do. What benefit is that to the remaining member states? You seriously believe they would tolerate such a situation?

Norway and Switezerland trade with the EU on the same terms as we do. Now, they still have to abide by all of the EU's regulations when doing that trading, even they do not have a say when those regulations are being made/changed. Therefore, a crude calculation to work out the value of being in the EU in trade terms is to work out the value of those times we achieve a change in favour by being at the table and add them all up (if there are any).

The point about Nissan is a valid one and I will hold my hands up and say that I don't know what the consequences for the likes of them would be if we had a Norwegian arrangement.

[boltonboris]

Being part of the EU gives us preference rates from the sub continent which China apart is the biggest import market. In terms of textile stuff it's the biggest. If we leave the EU and lose these preferential rates, the cost of clothing yourself and your kids will most probably double... Price of metals would increase, as would gas I'd imagine.

It'd be alright if the Chinese didn't keep comitting human rights violations.. But they do.

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

Being part of the EU gives us preference rates from the sub continent which China apart is the biggest import market. In terms of textile stuff it's the biggest. If we leave the EU and lose these preferential rates, the cost of clothing yourself and your kids will most probably double... Price of metals would increase, as would gas I'd imagine.

I'd be interested in learning more about this. Do you have any sources I can read? It sounds like you might have industry specific insight in relation to textiles?

I would like to know what sort of disadvantage Norway and Switzerland are at compared to us, for example (though I know Norway has plenty gas of its own). And to be able to quantify it.

[boltonboris]

Basically, there is a trade agreement between the EU and various countries around the world in which we use a "generalised system of preference" (GSP) basically, it means you don't pay, or pay much, much less import duty on goods imported into the UK. From China this has been eradicated for 2 reasons. 1) Because they have an 'unfair' share of the market when it comes to manufacturing and selling (to the point where they can kill the trade from other countries), but you probably already knew that. 2) Human rights violations. They haven't passed the criteria.. Even if they do, the EU probably wouldn't let them use the GSP scheme because of reason 1.

The commodity that benefits most from GSP is textile based goods. Clothing, furnishings etc. But mainly clothing.. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh churn this stuff out for fun, and the quality is much better than in China.. Therefore it costs more. A LOT more. So the only way to keep the price down, is to take away the Import duty (via the GSP scheme).

If they didn't have this GSP, people would just order everything from the Chinese, who would then proceed to drive up the prices because they'd have a bit of a captive market.

Same with metals.

Norway and Switzerland have their own preference rates with these countries (China excepted), but it isn't as good as the agreement with the EU... They also have quotas to fill and if they don't meet those quotas, they get heavy penalties. We (the EU) don't, as the quota system was scrapped years ago.

My personal view is that if the Government wanted to do away EU membership, they'd benefit from letting China monopolise the trade lanes into the UK.. But those 'benefits' wouldn't be entirely legal...........

[Lost Leopard Spot]

... and you'd get medicines that contained no medicine, for example.

[boltonboris]

Also, Norway and Switzerland have trade agreements with the EU, so they don't lose out on 'internal' trade.. This is called the EUR1 agreement. Turkey have this and also some North African states funnily enough (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco and also further afield, Israel).