The Politics Thread

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

hmmm... you've shifted your position. your original assertion was about manufacturing - and that low wages was the reason they still had a manufacturing sector...

I was replying to a point that did not mention manufacturing specifically and that was not my original position anyway.

it was ONE of your original positions!!

German wages are low and unattractive anyway, though - that's one of the main reasons they still have a manufacturing base.

Not THE reason.

Read more closely.

well - as it turns out - not only not THE reason or the MAIN reason, but not a reason at all!

No, I didn't say it was the main reason either. Must try harder.

And where has it been demonstrated that wages have nothing to do with it?

[thebish]

And where has it been demonstrated that wages have nothing to do with it?

it hasn't - not conclusively - but I did point you to some figures related to german manufacturing wages compared with the UK which you haven't countered with any others - so I assumed (perhaps wrongly) that you had accepted them.

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

And where has it been demonstrated that wages have nothing to do with it?

it hasn't - not conclusively - but I did point you to some figures related to german manufacturing wages compared with the UK which you haven't countered with any others - so I assumed (perhaps wrongly) that you had accepted them.

Well for a start those figures are in Euros, which should immediately flag up that exchange rates and currency strengths have something to do with it, so it's very hard to compare. It's a fiendishly complex area. Another big reason for Germany's success is the artificial devaluation of their currency by being part of a monetary union that includes economies like Greece.

There is some irony, however, in your illustrating this point about the relative unimportance of wages by linking to an article whose central theme is that a UK plant was chosen over Germans one entirely because of lower wages.

[thebish]

And where has it been demonstrated that wages have nothing to do with it?

it hasn't - not conclusively - but I did point you to some figures related to german manufacturing wages compared with the UK which you haven't countered with any others - so I assumed (perhaps wrongly) that you had accepted them.

Well for a start those figures are in Euros, which should immediately flag up that exchange rates and currency strengths have something to do with it, so it's very hard to compare. It's a fiendishly complex area. Another big reason for Germany's success is the artificial devaluation of their currency by being part of a monetary union that includes economies like Greece.

There is some irony, however, in your illustrating this point about the relative unimportance of wages by linking to an article whose central theme is that a UK plant was chosen over Germans one entirely because of lower wages.

I simply pointed to an article that seemed at least to suggest that it is not a simple matter to declare that low wages (in comparison to the UK) is one of the main reasons why the Germans have a manufacturing base. I haven't seen much which supports that idea... I'm sure there are lots of reasons - I just can't see much evidence to suggest low manufacturing wages are one of them, or even one of the main ones. I'm not categorically saying it isn't - there might be evidence which supports this out there - but it's unlike you not to produce it when you have it - so I assumed you accepted the figures I pointed to.

(also - as I read it - the article I pointed to didn't suggest a UK plant was chosen over a German one entirely because of lower wages - read it more closely! It highlights a few reasons.)

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

(also - as I read it - the article I pointed to didn't suggest a UK plant was chosen over a German one entirely because of lower wages - read it more closely! It highlights a few reasons.)

Ok, I overreached myself with the word "entirely". I'm just saying that it's ironic that you should make the point that low wages are not important in manufacturing success with an article that highlights the role of lower wages in delivering a manufacturing success.

I simply pointed to an article that seemed at least to suggest that it is not a simple matter to declare that low wages (in comparison to the UK) is one of the main reasons why the Germans have a manufacturing base. I haven't seen much which supports that idea... I'm sure there are lots of reasons - I just can't see much evidence to suggest low manufacturing wages are one of them, or even one of the main ones. I'm not categorically saying it isn't - there might be evidence which supports this out there - but it's unlike you not to produce it when you have it - so I assumed you accepted the figures I pointed to.

I was never making a direct comparison with the UK, in fairness. I do think it's entirely impossible and actually pretty certain that wage rates are not enough on their own to determine manufacturing success or failure.

If we are intent on making the comparison between us and Germany, I would say that one thing is worth thinking about: we're not comparing two successful manufacturing countries. The thing that is amazing about what Germany has done is keep wages down despite the fact that their manufacturing sector has flourished - that's a self-reinforcing cycle of success.

[thebish]

(also - as I read it - the article I pointed to didn't suggest a UK plant was chosen over a German one entirely because of lower wages - read it more closely! It highlights a few reasons.)

Ok, I overreached myself with the word "entirely". I'm just saying that it's ironic that you should make the point that low wages are not important in manufacturing success with an article that highlights the role of lower wages in delivering a manufacturing success.

now you ARE over-reaching yourself. I did not "make the point that low wages are not important in manufacturing success"... that would be a very general point - and not one I made at all.

I made the simple point that I couldn't find any evidence for your claim that one of the main reasons for German manufacturing success is their low wages. I pointed to some evidence that seemed to suggest German car manufacturing wages are actually higher than those in the UK. I also said that there might be evidence to the contrary out there and invited you to share it if you had it. I'm still not sure that German manufacturing has "low wages" - they might - but I haven't seen any data to illustrate the claim.

so - no - I can't see the irony that you claim to see..

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

You have since claimed that low wages are "not a reason at all".

hmmm... you've shifted your position. your original assertion was about manufacturing - and that low wages was the reason they still had a manufacturing sector...

I was replying to a point that did not mention manufacturing specifically and that was not my original position anyway.

it was ONE of your original positions!!

German wages are low and unattractive anyway, though - that's one of the main reasons they still have a manufacturing base.

Not THE reason.

Read more closely.

well - as it turns out - not only not THE reason or the MAIN reason, but not a reason at all!

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

And I'll dig out some data tomorrow.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

So, we arm them (Islamic fundamentalists) in Syria and Libya, but shoot them up in Mali. Is there any logic to this government's foreign policy at all?

[thebish]

You have since claimed that low wages are "not a reason at all".

well no - not quite! I thought it was fairly clear that I meant "as it turns out" (ie - from the figures I pointed you to) - low wages IN GERMANY - the context we were talking about, are not a reason at all - because they don't appear (from those figures) to be low - not in comparison to the UK anyway.

I can see how low wages might sustain a sector - that seems to me to be an obvious factor to take into account - but if the wages are NOT low - then low wages are "not a reason at all"!

the article I pointed to agrees with you (and me, as it happens) that the choice was complex (despite you misrepresenting the article) - and points to several factors other than wages - but it DOES seem to indicate that in this instance - car manufacturing - that German manufacturing wages are not uniformly "low". Of course I then said there may be other evidence suggesting they are - and one car manufacturing decision is certainly not comprehensively conclusive! I just expected you (having made quite a bold statement about German manufacturing wages being "low") to be able to point me to the reason you believe that.

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

A few things I have learnt since starting this discussion:

1. What I have read about low wages in Germany (things like a lack of minimum wage etc) seems not to apply as much to their manufacturing as it does to, say, service industries.

2. UK manufacturing wages are themselves quite low - it seems likely that both UK and German manufacturing wages are relatively low.

3. These things are very hard to compare because reliable figures are not widely available and things are made even more difficult by currency conversions.


Now, there was an interesting OECD page that allows you to look at some interesting breakdowns, but I can't find it now and I'll have to go looking in my history on another device for it.

[thebish]

A few things I have learnt since starting this discussion:

1. What I have read about low wages in Germany (things like a lack of minimum wage etc) seems not to apply as much to their manufacturing as it does to, say, service industries.

2. UK manufacturing wages are themselves quite low - it seems likely that both UK and German manufacturing wages are relatively low.

3. These things are very hard to compare because reliable figures are not widely available and things are made even more difficult by currency conversions.


Now, there was an interesting OECD page that allows you to look at some interesting breakdowns, but I can't find it now and I'll have to go looking in my history on another device for it.

I don't think you and I are really in any kind of disagreement. I suspect you are right in describing the situations and competing factors - not to mention differing histories and cultures - as complex, perhaps too complex to make simple yet meaningful comparisons..

I do think there are several persistent myths around. I was interested to discover if German low-wages is one of them - as it is often said... maybe it is not a myth - but is nuanced (for example - not in the manufacturing sector)

another oft-argued "fact" is that the British economy prices itself out of manufacturing jobs and inward investment because of unions demanding higher wages... again - your comment that BOTH UK and German manufacturing wages are on the low side seems to give the lie to this...

all of that aside - I think this is quite a balanced analysis of the factors that might influence the number of Romanians "flooding" the UK...

http://politicsinspires.org/2013/01/how ... largement/

they list what I think are some fairly rational-sounding arguments why the situation is NOT the same as the Poles coming!

among them this:

Romanian and Bulgarians who have emigrated to the EU up to this point have not been especially likely to choose the UK. The majority of Romanian-born emigrants in Europe are concentrated in just two countries: Spain and Italy. Established personal and economic networks are a “pull factor” that may continue to lead A2 migrants to Spain, Italy, and elsewhere.

so maybe not primarily Germany OR the UK....

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

I still think that Spain and Italy are going to have so much less pull at this particular time because of the millions and millions of their own young people who are unemployed.

[Abdoulaye's Twin]

You would also need to look at cost of employment when looking at low wages. One country or another may have significantly lower employer costs, such as tax/NI contributions, mandatory benefits such as healthcare, pension and other stuff. These contributions can increase company costs by quite a bit and therefore make a particular country quite attractive or not.

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

Someone on my Facebook was complaining about the ignorance of the parliamentary committee currently looking at multinational taxation and transfer pricing.

It reminded me of my favourite example of the genre - Bob Diamond in front of a select committee back in 2011.

Go to 1 hour 6 minutes in this video and watch John Mann's questions in full. Comedy gold.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters ... o_pay.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Hoboh]

So, we arm them (Islamic fundamentalists) in Syria and Libya, but shoot them up in Mali. Is there any logic to this government's foreign policy at all?

None what so ever! We close our borders then if they look like developing any weapons cabable of reaching us we blast them into the next world via cruise missiles and the odd stealth bomber or three.
If the population of these countries are thick enough to bend over and take one off the feckers it's their own fault, we should stop meddling.

[Athers]

Someone on my Facebook was complaining about the ignorance of the parliamentary committee currently looking at multinational taxation and transfer pricing.

It reminded me of my favourite example of the genre - Bob Diamond in front of a select committee back in 2011.

Go to 1 hour 6 minutes in this video and watch John Mann's questions in full. Comedy gold.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters ... o_pay.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You'd hope a guy with an economics degree might not ask (twice) about camels and needles ffs.

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

John Mann is a professional moron. He makes Margaret Hodge look switched on.

[Bruce Rioja]

For Hobo

[thebish]

so... after all this time and (presumably tens of thousands of pounds in lawyers fees and what-not) Chris Huhne decides to plead guilty at the very last opportunity...

wanker...