The Politics Thread

[thebish]

Yes, I know he has said things like that.

Listing it amongst 8 benchmarks not the same as saying our credit rating is the primary measure by which to judge his economic programme, which is what you said.

primary... first...

I think the force of what he said was quite clear...

you, of course, are perfectly entitled to choose to read it differently!

[Harry Genshaw]

As things seemingly get worse, Osborne keeps saying we're on the right track, that the problems are the fault of the previous regime and if we stick with him and keep doing what we're doing, then things will get better.

I'm sure I've heard this argument on another thread somewhere..

[Montreal Wanderer]

As things seemingly get worse, Osborne keeps saying we're on the right track, that the problems are the fault of the previous regime and if we stick with him and keep doing what we're doing, then things will get better.

I'm sure I've heard this argument on another thread somewhere..

Ah, under Lee, Megson, Coyle and the current administration. It looks like Britain may be going down the financial toilet then.

[Harry Genshaw]

As things seemingly get worse, Osborne keeps saying we're on the right track, that the problems are the fault of the previous regime and if we stick with him and keep doing what we're doing, then things will get better.

I'm sure I've heard this argument on another thread somewhere..

Ah, under Lee, Megson, Coyle and the current administration. It looks like Britain may be going down the financial toilet then.

Nah, it'll be reet

[Lord Kangana]

Didn't they say it was the first downgrade in 30 years?

Is that how long there've been ratings agencies?

or do we only get downgraded under Tory governments?

[Lost Leopard Spot]

The downgrade's impact will be painful only for the Chancellor as he's put a lot of political capital into keeping it at AAA. I doubt it will really affect our cost of borrowing - we're still a good safe haven.

It would appear from the pound-Euro exchange rate that the downgrade is going to effect many more people than just the Chancellor.
In fact some financial pundits are now predicting that (very very soon) for the first time ever we will see parity in the exchange rate with one pound being worth just one Euro.

[mrkint]

the market opening on monday was always going to see the sterling drop like a stone. But it'll correct itself once people start to chill the feck out.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

the market opening on monday was always going to see the sterling drop like a stone. But it'll correct itself once people start to chill the feck out.

Won't.

[mrkint]

Will.

ner-ner-nee-ner-ner

[Lost Leopard Spot]

Will.

ner-ner-nee-ner-ner

I wanted to do the ner ner stuff first.

[Athers]

Sterling has been falling for a while now though - for the most part the markets pre-empt the ratings agencies. But let's see on the bonds...

Growth is the main stat which matters, it doesn't look great for the Chancellor or more importantly everyone. Had Labour been in power I imagine we'd have lost AAA earlier with a slower deficit reduction plan... Hard to say what their growth figures would have been like.

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

The devalued pound is obviously not good news for living standards, but could there be a growth silver lining?

Our exports become more price competitive abroad and as do our home-produced products and services in relation to foreign alternatives.

Or is this all eaten up in the higher prices we face for commodities etc, Athers?

[Lost Leopard Spot]

The devalued pound is obviously not good news for living standards, but could there be a growth silver lining?

Our exports become more price competitive abroad and as do our home-produced products and services in relation to foreign alternatives.

Or is this all eaten up in the higher prices we face for commodities etc, Athers?

There's one thing it's not good for and that's the Tory vote. There are, apparently, nearly a million Brits living abroad of which a fair few have the vote and utilise it. Their number one concern is the exchange rate. A fickle lot are your 'poor' ex-pats, they lash out in anger when stung, and if the fall in the pound continues it will add up to another half point swing against the Tories [this is according to a friend who works for NatCen - a survey and polling organisation]

[Bijou Bob]

Bugger the ex pats LLS, I'm of to Portugal in 5 weeks. My holiday has become almost 20% more expensive in the last 8 weeks!

[mrkint]

The devalued pound is obviously not good news for living standards, but could there be a growth silver lining?

Our exports become more price competitive abroad and as do our home-produced products and services in relation to foreign alternatives.

Or is this all eaten up in the higher prices we face for commodities etc, Athers?

There's one thing it's not good for and that's the Tory vote. There are, apparently, nearly a million Brits living abroad of which a fair few have the vote and utilise it. Their number one concern is the exchange rate. A fickle lot are your 'poor' ex-pats, they lash out in anger when stung, and if the fall in the pound continues it will add up to another half point swing against the Tories [this is according to a friend who works for NatCen - a survey and polling organisation]

Which is all fine but those figures don't really mean much when put into the British voting system - it's winner takes all, not proportional. And also divided into 650 constituencies. Obviously this is a hypothetical scenario, but even if, say, those 1 million expats all didn't vote tory (which won't happen) and were all spread as equally as possible across all constituencies (again, won't be the case) then the effect is a loss of about 1500 votes per seat. This doesn't sound great for the tories, but, adding other factors into the mix such as locale, voting patterns and whether or not expats can actually be arsed, i don't think it would be too damaging, if at all, to them from the expat vote side of things.

[Lost Leopard Spot]

The devalued pound is obviously not good news for living standards, but could there be a growth silver lining?

Our exports become more price competitive abroad and as do our home-produced products and services in relation to foreign alternatives.

Or is this all eaten up in the higher prices we face for commodities etc, Athers?

There's one thing it's not good for and that's the Tory vote. There are, apparently, nearly a million Brits living abroad of which a fair few have the vote and utilise it. Their number one concern is the exchange rate. A fickle lot are your 'poor' ex-pats, they lash out in anger when stung, and if the fall in the pound continues it will add up to another half point swing against the Tories [this is according to a friend who works for NatCen - a survey and polling organisation]

Which is all fine but those figures don't really mean much when put into the British voting system - it's winner takes all, not proportional. And also divided into 650 constituencies. Obviously this is a hypothetical scenario, but even if, say, those 1 million expats all didn't vote tory (which won't happen) and were all spread as equally as possible across all constituencies (again, won't be the case) then the effect is a loss of about 1500 votes per seat. This doesn't sound great for the tories, but, adding other factors into the mix such as locale, voting patterns and whether or not expats can actually be arsed, i don't think it would be too damaging, if at all, to them from the expat vote side of things.

And you'd be probably correct. It's who they seem to be plumbing for that'll put the wind up Conservative Central Office. Asked who these fickle expat swing voters would vote for instead of Tory and to a man/woman they say UKIP. And in marginal seats, which is to be honest wherein the true electoral fight lies, every vote for UKIP against the Tories gives a bigger impact per percentage swing than any other conceivable voting pattern.

[BWFC_Insane]

The devalued pound is obviously not good news for living standards, but could there be a growth silver lining?

Our exports become more price competitive abroad and as do our home-produced products and services in relation to foreign alternatives.

Or is this all eaten up in the higher prices we face for commodities etc, Athers?

There's one thing it's not good for and that's the Tory vote. There are, apparently, nearly a million Brits living abroad of which a fair few have the vote and utilise it. Their number one concern is the exchange rate. A fickle lot are your 'poor' ex-pats, they lash out in anger when stung, and if the fall in the pound continues it will add up to another half point swing against the Tories [this is according to a friend who works for NatCen - a survey and polling organisation]

Which is all fine but those figures don't really mean much when put into the British voting system - it's winner takes all, not proportional. And also divided into 650 constituencies. Obviously this is a hypothetical scenario, but even if, say, those 1 million expats all didn't vote tory (which won't happen) and were all spread as equally as possible across all constituencies (again, won't be the case) then the effect is a loss of about 1500 votes per seat. This doesn't sound great for the tories, but, adding other factors into the mix such as locale, voting patterns and whether or not expats can actually be arsed, i don't think it would be too damaging, if at all, to them from the expat vote side of things.

And you'd be probably correct. It's who they seem to be plumbing for that'll put the wind up Conservative Central Office. Asked who these fickle expat swing voters would vote for instead of Tory and to a man/woman they say UKIP. And in marginal seats, which is to be honest wherein the true electoral fight lies, every vote for UKIP against the Tories gives a bigger impact per percentage swing than any other conceivable voting pattern.

I'm not convinced by that. Surely it depends who the margins are shared by?

In a lab/con marginal, every swing from Con to Lab is surely worse (from a Tory perspective) than a Conservative voter going to UKIP?

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

The devalued pound is obviously not good news for living standards, but could there be a growth silver lining?

Our exports become more price competitive abroad and as do our home-produced products and services in relation to foreign alternatives.

Or is this all eaten up in the higher prices we face for commodities etc, Athers?

There's one thing it's not good for and that's the Tory vote. There are, apparently, nearly a million Brits living abroad of which a fair few have the vote and utilise it. Their number one concern is the exchange rate. A fickle lot are your 'poor' ex-pats, they lash out in anger when stung, and if the fall in the pound continues it will add up to another half point swing against the Tories [this is according to a friend who works for NatCen - a survey and polling organisation]

That pales into insignificance against the negative electoral consequences of lower living standards and higher inflation in the UK!

[Lost Leopard Spot]

The devalued pound is obviously not good news for living standards, but could there be a growth silver lining?

Our exports become more price competitive abroad and as do our home-produced products and services in relation to foreign alternatives.

Or is this all eaten up in the higher prices we face for commodities etc, Athers?

There's one thing it's not good for and that's the Tory vote. There are, apparently, nearly a million Brits living abroad of which a fair few have the vote and utilise it. Their number one concern is the exchange rate. A fickle lot are your 'poor' ex-pats, they lash out in anger when stung, and if the fall in the pound continues it will add up to another half point swing against the Tories [this is according to a friend who works for NatCen - a survey and polling organisation]

Which is all fine but those figures don't really mean much when put into the British voting system - it's winner takes all, not proportional. And also divided into 650 constituencies. Obviously this is a hypothetical scenario, but even if, say, those 1 million expats all didn't vote tory (which won't happen) and were all spread as equally as possible across all constituencies (again, won't be the case) then the effect is a loss of about 1500 votes per seat. This doesn't sound great for the tories, but, adding other factors into the mix such as locale, voting patterns and whether or not expats can actually be arsed, i don't think it would be too damaging, if at all, to them from the expat vote side of things.

And you'd be probably correct. It's who they seem to be plumbing for that'll put the wind up Conservative Central Office. Asked who these fickle expat swing voters would vote for instead of Tory and to a man/woman they say UKIP. And in marginal seats, which is to be honest wherein the true electoral fight lies, every vote for UKIP against the Tories gives a bigger impact per percentage swing than any other conceivable voting pattern.

I'm not convinced by that. Surely it depends who the margins are shared by?

In a lab/con marginal, every swing from Con to Lab is surely worse (from a Tory perspective) than a Conservative voter going to UKIP?

Not being a psephologist I cannot tell you why, but my friend at NatCen tells me an 8% swing from Conservative to UKIP delivers far more seats against the Conservatives than an 8% swing from Labour to Conservative does, and this apparently is not a controversial statement.
If it is controversial I shall go away and quiz him about it tonight.

[mrkint]

tactical voting i guess?