The middle East

[Montreal Wanderer]

Where's this figure from?

Aren't the US on the cusp of becoming a net energy exporter and even a net oil exporter?

I don't think so PB - not even close. This doesn't mean they couldn't be but they don't export, preferring to store or reserve.

apart from about 124,000 barrels a day...

According to the US Energy Administration they import some 8,000,000 barrels of crude oil a day. They export 52,000 barrels of crude oil a day. It is true they export more product derived from crude oil than they import by a ration of 3:2. Anyway, whether your 124k or the 52k quoted by the US Energy Administration is accurate, they still import many times as much as they export. I don't see that as close.

i didn't say it was close - I was just saying that your statement that "they don't export" was not quite right.

also - your export figure is a bit low - perhaps out of date?? according to the very same US Energy Administration, US exports of Crude Oil over the last three months have been as follows:

April 2013: 132,000 bpd
May 2013: 125,000 bpd
June 2013: 120,000 bpd

which is pretty much what I said.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHa ... REXUS2&f=M

Well, I meant they don't export 'a lot' or not even close to the imports (as PB suggested) - btw my figures, which run from July 19 to August 23 2013, are more current than yours which only run to June 2013 so they have apparently cut back on exports since earlier in the year. The bottom of my chart shows net imports to be around 8,000,000 barrels of crude, but products from crude (e.g. petrol) have net exports of 1,500,000 barrels.

[thebish]

^ but we can confirm that they DO export?

[thebish]

Apparently some Israeli leaders are upset that Obama has decided to go Congress before bombing Syria. Economics and trade minister Naftali Bennett said: "The international stuttering and hesitancy on Syria just proves once more that Israel cannot count on anyone but itself.”
And:
Military analyst Alex Fishman: "If we find ourselves in a crisis with Iran, no one in the world is going to be prepared to move a single plane on our behalf. At best, we'll receive verbal support."

an American friend of mine notes:

Cannot count on anyone...At best, we’ll receive verbal support...
U.S. aid to Israel runs at about $3billion a year, 60% military and 40% economic. In addition to this direct aid, Israel gets about $3billion in indirect aid: military support from the defence budget, forgiven loans, special grants. While it is probably impossible to accurately state how much the U.S. has given Israel over the years, a good estimate is that from 1949 to 2001 the U.S. gave Israel $94,966, 300,000, or 100 billion dollars (see Washington Report on Middle East Affairs).
Israel has one of the most sophisticated and best trained militaries in the world, as would the Palestinians if we gave them 100 billion dollars. If Israel wants to go it alone, it can stop taking U.S. dollars. If not, then spare me the dramatics.

[thebish]

and alongside that... with a feeling of déjà vu..

Within hours of publication, the Obama administration's documentation on Syria, which is being used to support the case for US-led direct military strikes on the country, has been criticised for its lack of verifiable detail.

The three-page white paper, which claims to prove the culpability of the Assad regime for a chemical weapons attack on the outskirts of Damascus, contains no direct quotes, no photographic evidence, no named sources, and no independently supported evidence, notes analyst Robert Parry, who broke many of the Iran-Contra stories in the 1980s for the Associated Press and Newsweek. He now heads up the Consortium for Independent Journalism (CIJ) in the United States.

Are you suggesting you lack faith in Western intelligence gathering, bish, or believe in governmental unwillingness to tell the people the truth? Surely we couldn't be deceived. Again. So soon.

well - put it this way... my faith in western intelligence gathering and its use by politicians is not high..

have a look at John Kerry's "evidence" for syrian govt chemical weapons attacks...



Secretary of State John Kerry opened his speech Friday by describing the horrors victims of the chemical weapon attack had suffered, including twitching, spasms and difficulty breathing. Attempting to drive the point home, Kerry referenced a photograph used by the BBC, illustrating a child jumping over hundreds of dead bodies covered in white shrouds. The Secretary of State forgot to mention, however, that this photo was taken during US intervention in Iraq back in 2003.

The photo which was later retracted was meant to depict victims who allegedly succumbed to the effects of chemical weapons launched by Assad’s regime.


if the evidence is so compelling - why the need to make stuff up?

[Montreal Wanderer]

^ but we can confirm that they DO export?

Yes, they do export crude though the figures you quoted are quite misleading. You used three of the only five months in the last 12 years (that's 144 months) where exports exceeded 100,000 - the other 139 months the figure is far lower and the average is well under 50k barrels. So, only from February to June of this year did the US export that much, while they continue to import almost 80 times as much (down from 160 times as much last year). That was the only point I was making in response to PB's assertion of near equality. However, US production is close to 7,000,000 barrels a day - getting close to the amount they import. Perhaps that was what PB meant or had heard.

[thebish]

^ but we can confirm that they DO export?

Yes, they do export crude though the figures you quoted are quite misleading. You used three of the only five months in the last 12 years

and you used only one month!

anyway - I merely wanted to point out the fact that the US DOES export crude all, that's all...

[Harry Genshaw]

Apparently some Israeli leaders are upset that Obama has decided to go Congress before bombing Syria. Economics and trade minister Naftali Bennett said: "The international stuttering and hesitancy on Syria just proves once more that Israel cannot count on anyone but itself.”
And:
Military analyst Alex Fishman: "If we find ourselves in a crisis with Iran, no one in the world is going to be prepared to move a single plane on our behalf. At best, we'll receive verbal support."

an American friend of mine notes:

Cannot count on anyone...At best, we’ll receive verbal support...
U.S. aid to Israel runs at about $3billion a year, 60% military and 40% economic. In addition to this direct aid, Israel gets about $3billion in indirect aid: military support from the defence budget, forgiven loans, special grants. While it is probably impossible to accurately state how much the U.S. has given Israel over the years, a good estimate is that from 1949 to 2001 the U.S. gave Israel $94,966, 300,000, or 100 billion dollars (see Washington Report on Middle East Affairs).
Israel has one of the most sophisticated and best trained militaries in the world, as would the Palestinians if we gave them 100 billion dollars. If Israel wants to go it alone, it can stop taking U.S. dollars. If not, then spare me the dramatics.

And that's not forgetting all the 'indirect support' where the US turn a blind eye to Israels frequent human rights abuses, the ignoring of UN resolutions etc

[thebish]

interesting stuff coming out of America today - that they are planning a much wider engagement than originally mooted - and certainly MUCH wider than the very limited action that Cameron was trying to reassure the house of commons was envisaged... who knows what we would have let ourselves in for given that it appears to be a lot bigger and more extensive - and not just targeted on chemical weapons capacity...

[Dujon]

We are in the midst of an election campaign. This means that since the announcement of an election date the current government has been in caretaker mode. The polling booths will be open this coming Saturday (Sept 7). I tend to keep away from the journalistic claptrap during such periods but it's impossible to dodge all the rhetoric being bandied about by all and sundry. In my semi-isolated cave I have heard neither of the major parties express an opinion (never mind a policy) on the Syrian situation. Unfortunately Australia has a history since WWII of tugging forelocks and bleating "Yes, sir" over and over again when the good old US of A asks it to give it a bit of a hand in some war or other.

I am fervently hoping that on this occasion, whatever government is formed, that it will decline the invitation should it be offered.

[thebish]

We are in the midst of an election campaign. This means that since the announcement of an election date the current government has been in caretaker mode. The polling booths will be open this coming Saturday (Sept 7). I tend to keep away from the journalistic claptrap during such periods but it's impossible to dodge all the rhetoric being bandied about by all and sundry. In my semi-isolated cave I have heard neither of the major parties express an opinion (never mind a policy) on the Syrian situation. Unfortunately Australia has a history since WWII of tugging forelocks and bleating "Yes, sir" over and over again when the good old US of A asks it to give it a bit of a hand in some war or other.

I am fervently hoping that on this occasion, whatever government is formed, that it will decline the invitation should it be offered.

that's interesting - because Oz has appeared in all of the lists of the "coalition of the willing" that I have heard...

the contras are Russia, China, UK, Brazil and India - as far as I can tell...

[Lost Leopard Spot]

We are in the midst of an election campaign. This means that since the announcement of an election date the current government has been in caretaker mode. The polling booths will be open this coming Saturday (Sept 7). I tend to keep away from the journalistic claptrap during such periods but it's impossible to dodge all the rhetoric being bandied about by all and sundry. In my semi-isolated cave I have heard neither of the major parties express an opinion (never mind a policy) on the Syrian situation. Unfortunately Australia has a history since WWII of tugging forelocks and bleating "Yes, sir" over and over again when the good old US of A asks it to give it a bit of a hand in some war or other.

I am fervently hoping that on this occasion, whatever government is formed, that it will decline the invitation should it be offered.

that's interesting - because Oz has appeared in all of the lists of the "coalition of the willing" that I have heard...

the contras are Russia, China, UK, Brazil and India - as far as I can tell...

+ Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba...

[Lost Leopard Spot]

It's gone very quiet on the UN front. Probably wondering who not to upset.

[thebish]

It's gone very quiet on the UN front. Probably wondering who not to upset.

the weapons inspectors said they needed a couple of weeks to analyse their findings - I guess they are waiting for that... among other things...

[William the White]

And in Egypt the regime inches back to pre-revolutionary 'normalcy' with the proposed banning of the Moslem Brotherhood (like that has worked many times before!) and the army and police in effective and brutal control.

Shirley Williams in The Guardian calls for a positive approach to involve Iran with the Syria situation. (A better position than her earlier advocacy of bringing peace via cruise missiles).

The ripples of the house of commons decision continue with the French Assembly now debating the intervention (and polls showing the public over 60% in opposition).

[Lost Leopard Spot]

And in Egypt the regime inches back to pre-revolutionary 'normalcy' with the proposed banning of the Moslem Brotherhood (like that has worked many times before!) and the army and police in effective and brutal control.

Shirley Williams in The Guardian calls for a positive approach to involve Iran with the Syria situation. (A better position than her earlier advocacy of bringing peace via cruise missiles).

The ripples of the house of commons decision continue with the French Assembly now debating the intervention (and polls showing the public over 60% in opposition).

...and meanwhile, not forgetting those recent bastions of democracy outside of the glare of the world's media: state, society and individual freedoms in Tunisia and Libya continue to go to hell in a handcart.

[Montreal Wanderer]

We are in the midst of an election campaign. This means that since the announcement of an election date the current government has been in caretaker mode. The polling booths will be open this coming Saturday (Sept 7). I tend to keep away from the journalistic claptrap during such periods but it's impossible to dodge all the rhetoric being bandied about by all and sundry. In my semi-isolated cave I have heard neither of the major parties express an opinion (never mind a policy) on the Syrian situation. Unfortunately Australia has a history since WWII of tugging forelocks and bleating "Yes, sir" over and over again when the good old US of A asks it to give it a bit of a hand in some war or other.

I am fervently hoping that on this occasion, whatever government is formed, that it will decline the invitation should it be offered.

that's interesting - because Oz has appeared in all of the lists of the "coalition of the willing" that I have heard...

the contras are Russia, China, UK, Brazil and India - as far as I can tell...

+ Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba...

Canada has declined as it did in Iraq 2 (unless there is a UN resolution which seems unlikely).

[William the White]

And in Egypt the regime inches back to pre-revolutionary 'normalcy' with the proposed banning of the Moslem Brotherhood (like that has worked many times before!) and the army and police in effective and brutal control.

Shirley Williams in The Guardian calls for a positive approach to involve Iran with the Syria situation. (A better position than her earlier advocacy of bringing peace via cruise missiles).

The ripples of the house of commons decision continue with the French Assembly now debating the intervention (and polls showing the public over 60% in opposition).

...and meanwhile, not forgetting those recent bastions of democracy outside of the glare of the world's media: state, society and individual freedoms in Tunisia and Libya continue to go to hell in a handcart.

That's certainly possible but if Egypt is hell and Syria is a raging inferno they are nowhere near either and the handcart is on a pretty slow trundle, particularly, it seems, in Tunisia...

[Lost Leopard Spot]

And in Egypt the regime inches back to pre-revolutionary 'normalcy' with the proposed banning of the Moslem Brotherhood (like that has worked many times before!) and the army and police in effective and brutal control.

Shirley Williams in The Guardian calls for a positive approach to involve Iran with the Syria situation. (A better position than her earlier advocacy of bringing peace via cruise missiles).

The ripples of the house of commons decision continue with the French Assembly now debating the intervention (and polls showing the public over 60% in opposition).

...and meanwhile, not forgetting those recent bastions of democracy outside of the glare of the world's media: state, society and individual freedoms in Tunisia and Libya continue to go to hell in a handcart.

That's certainly possible but if Egypt is hell and Syria is a raging inferno they are nowhere near either and the handcart is on a pretty slow trundle, particularly, it seems, in Tunisia...

only because all the Islamists are concentrating around the east of Benghazi and Sinai for strategic reasons. The so-called police state you are attributing to Egypt has never left Tunisia.

[Dujon]

that's interesting - because Oz has appeared in all of the lists of the "coalition of the willing" that I have heard...

the contras are Russia, China, UK, Brazil and India - as far as I can tell...

Perhaps the pundits are working on Australia's past actions, thebish. I don't know. A couple of months ago (it seems like years) the then Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, called an election for Sept.14. The Labor (sic) party then booted her off her throne and re-installed Kevin Rudd (who had been kicked of his pedestal earlier by Ms Gillard) in the post. Isn't politics a wonderful thing? A Prime Minister calls an election so I assume that when Rudd picked up the reins Gillard's call was voided. Rudd took his time - no doubt analysing poll results - and then called the election for Sept 7.

Theoretically that means that the government could not act on many matters, including foreign affairs, after the first call. A window of opportunity arose and then closed again when Rudd made his call. In all that time I have heard the odd politician (aren't they all?) striking a pose and doing a bit of 'tut-tutting' but nothing in the way of committing the country to some sort of non-UN alliance. I can't prove it but I do believe that the Australian electorate at large is sick and tired of us getting involved in and spending enormous sums of money helping to prop up belligerents/knights-in-shining-armour who probably couldn't give a damn if we were there or not.

[Hoboh]

The Russian president said he was sorry that Mr Obama had cancelled a one-on-one meeting which was due to precede the G20 summit.

'President Obama hasn't been elected by the American people in order to be pleasant to Russia,' he said. 'And your humble servant hasn't been elected by the people of Russia to be pleasant to someone either.

Vladimir Putin yesterday issued a thinly-veiled threat to arm Iran with missile defences if the West attacks Syria.

The Russian leader said Moscow had provided elements of the S-300 military technology to Syria but had frozen further shipments, suggesting they could be routed elsewhere.

That was widely seen as a threat to revive a contract for delivery of the S-300s to Iran, which Russia cancelled several years ago under strong US and Israeli pressure.

There is the start of a distinct chilly wind blowing from the Middle East right now.