League One 2019/20

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LeverEnd
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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by LeverEnd » Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:24 pm

Bertie Wooster wrote:
Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:51 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:25 am
Prepare your “fork the EFL” songs: Marc Iles says disciplinary panel will meet today to decide our game-swerving punishment, which will be announced “by” tomorrow. But IMO it might leak before then...

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/1 ... -decision/
The club should appeal any punishment, and take legal action against the EFL immediately.

We already have the 12 point deduction, plus having to play the 1st handful of fixtures with the kids which resulted in several heavy defeats - so in effect we have already had a 15- 18 point deduction - even now we are still 15 points off safety with almost a 3rd of the season gone. Any punishment should have been against the previous regime, I'm not sure how the EFL could seriously justify any further points deductions without completely damaging the integrity of the league - any punishment should be suspended used as a threat should anything similar happen again under FV.
I agree we shouldn't take it lying down. They have to punish the club in some way but should suspend it (or most of it) due to the mitigating factors that they are partly to blame for.
...

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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by TonyDomingos » Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:34 pm

LeverEnd wrote:
Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:24 pm
Bertie Wooster wrote:
Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:51 am
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:25 am
Prepare your “fork the EFL” songs: Marc Iles says disciplinary panel will meet today to decide our game-swerving punishment, which will be announced “by” tomorrow. But IMO it might leak before then...

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/1 ... -decision/
The club should appeal any punishment, and take legal action against the EFL immediately.

We already have the 12 point deduction, plus having to play the 1st handful of fixtures with the kids which resulted in several heavy defeats - so in effect we have already had a 15- 18 point deduction - even now we are still 15 points off safety with almost a 3rd of the season gone. Any punishment should have been against the previous regime, I'm not sure how the EFL could seriously justify any further points deductions without completely damaging the integrity of the league - any punishment should be suspended used as a threat should anything similar happen again under FV.
I agree we shouldn't take it lying down. They have to punish the club in some way but should suspend it (or most of it) due to the mitigating factors that they are partly to blame for.

Tbh, think we were given quite a lot of slack to be allowed to carry on. Can't complain too much if we get a deduction.
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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:10 pm

League table since Hill's appointment. (Ipswich are highlighted because this handy table-between-dates calculator is on a fansite.)
Screenshot 2019-11-17 at 13.06.01.png
Screenshot 2019-11-17 at 13.06.01.png (135.34 KiB) Viewed 1166 times
Worth noting that we're tracking at 1.3ppg, which includes his first six games which only yielded three points. Even if we "only" keep that rate up, with 30 games left we're on course for another 40pts. More crucially, perhaps, there are several other relegation candidates doing much worse - awfully so, in some cases. At this rate - or rather these rates - this division might be on course for an unusually low survival total.

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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by nicholaldo » Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:58 pm

At the start of the season the bookmakers priced us at 1/200 to be relegated. Today, they've priced us at 1/3.

I used to think we wouldn't have the squad depth to manage staying up irrespective of any further punishment, but now I'm increasingly beginning to think our hopes rest solely on the number of points we get deducted this second time.

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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by LeverEnd » Sun Nov 17, 2019 6:40 pm

nicholaldo wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:58 pm
At the start of the season the bookmakers priced us at 1/200 to be relegated. Today, they've priced us at 1/3.

I used to think we wouldn't have the squad depth to manage staying up irrespective of any further punishment, but now I'm increasingly beginning to think our hopes rest solely on the number of points we get deducted this second time.
The EFL will desperate to see us relegated to appease the baying mob of chairmen (latest bring McAnthony from Peterborough), but let's hope the independent panel is truly that, appreciate the mitigating circumstances and don't hammer us.
...

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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by Harry Genshaw » Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:40 pm

Seems the right thread to state my admiration for Wycombe. A class act as hosts on the opening day and punching way above their weight on limited resources. Another fantastic result for them today.
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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by TonyDomingos » Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:24 pm

Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:10 pm
League table since Hill's appointment. (Ipswich are highlighted because this handy table-between-dates calculator is on a fansite.)

Screenshot 2019-11-17 at 13.06.01.png

Worth noting that we're tracking at 1.3ppg, which includes his first six games which only yielded three points. Even if we "only" keep that rate up, with 30 games left we're on course for another 40pts. More crucially, perhaps, there are several other relegation candidates doing much worse - awfully so, in some cases. At this rate - or rather these rates - this division might be on course for an unusually low survival total.

Only 15th? Boo. Hill out!
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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by bristol_Wanderer3 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:02 pm

So we have six games before the start of the JTW. They are Accrington (a), Wimbledon(h), Peterborough(a), Southend(h), Sunderland(a), Shrewsbury(h).

Lets say six points is a reasonable estimate for the amount of points the EFL are likely to deduct.

If it is six points and we lose every game we would enter January on -5 points. Win every game 13 points. There will be 24 games left.

What amount of points from the six games do we think we need for us to think that we have a decent chance to survive and therefore we should have a real go (within the limitations of our likely embargo) in terms of signing/re-signing players in January?

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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by Prufrock » Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:17 am

Within 18 of 4th bottom and I'd make us favourites, especially given the games in hand. Southend, McDons and Lincoln look like they're going to struggle to get 40 points!
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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:14 am

I still don't really see it. If we had no further points deductions its still a long shot. With further points to come off - and who knows how many....I'd say more than a long shot. There is no point being defeatist, till it is impossible we fight. But the mathematics are not in our favour.

Lets say its 6 points. It puts us 18 off safety. Which means with 30 games left to play we need to win 7 more than AFC Wimbledon/MK Dons.

AFC Wimbledon have won 3 in 17. MK 4 in 17. Given sides usually improve a little towards the end lets say they manage 8 wins from their remaining games. It means that we need to win 15 - half our remaining games. And that's if the damage is another 6.

And I look at Saturday and frankly - although the last minute winner was brilliant - we certainly did not really deserve that win. MK Dons are one down there with us and didn't look so far off us if we're honest that we could win double the games they will.

Just how I see it. Its not completely impossible and that is huge testament to new owners, management and players. But I'd say its one in a thousand type odds still.

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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by The_Gun » Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:17 am

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:14 am
I still don't really see it. If we had no further points deductions its still a long shot. With further points to come off - and who knows how many....I'd say more than a long shot. There is no point being defeatist, till it is impossible we fight. But the mathematics are not in our favour.

Lets say its 6 points. It puts us 18 off safety. Which means with 30 games left to play we need to win 7 more than AFC Wimbledon/MK Dons.

AFC Wimbledon have won 3 in 17. MK 4 in 17. Given sides usually improve a little towards the end lets say they manage 8 wins from their remaining games. It means that we need to win 15 - half our remaining games. And that's if the damage is another 6.

And I look at Saturday and frankly - although the last minute winner was brilliant - we certainly did not really deserve that win. MK Dons are one down there with us and didn't look so far off us if we're honest that we could win double the games they will.

Just how I see it. Its not completely impossible and that is huge testament to new owners, management and players. But I'd say its one in a thousand type odds still.
If you think we're 1/1000 to get relegated then I assume you've had the lot on at the currently available 1/3?

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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by BWFC_Insane » Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:21 am

The_Gun wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:17 am
BWFC_Insane wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:14 am
I still don't really see it. If we had no further points deductions its still a long shot. With further points to come off - and who knows how many....I'd say more than a long shot. There is no point being defeatist, till it is impossible we fight. But the mathematics are not in our favour.

Lets say its 6 points. It puts us 18 off safety. Which means with 30 games left to play we need to win 7 more than AFC Wimbledon/MK Dons.

AFC Wimbledon have won 3 in 17. MK 4 in 17. Given sides usually improve a little towards the end lets say they manage 8 wins from their remaining games. It means that we need to win 15 - half our remaining games. And that's if the damage is another 6.

And I look at Saturday and frankly - although the last minute winner was brilliant - we certainly did not really deserve that win. MK Dons are one down there with us and didn't look so far off us if we're honest that we could win double the games they will.

Just how I see it. Its not completely impossible and that is huge testament to new owners, management and players. But I'd say its one in a thousand type odds still.
If you think we're 1/1000 to get relegated then I assume you've had the lot on at the currently available 1/3?
Ha - I didn't mean from a Bookies perspective. I just think that's how big of an escape this would be. It would be completely unprecedented in English football - if we pulled it off. The greatest escape ever. By a huge chasm.

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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by Prufrock » Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:46 pm

BWFC_Insane wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:14 am
I still don't really see it. If we had no further points deductions its still a long shot. With further points to come off - and who knows how many....I'd say more than a long shot. There is no point being defeatist, till it is impossible we fight. But the mathematics are not in our favour.

Lets say its 6 points. It puts us 18 off safety. Which means with 30 games left to play we need to win 7 more than AFC Wimbledon/MK Dons.

AFC Wimbledon have won 3 in 17. MK 4 in 17. Given sides usually improve a little towards the end lets say they manage 8 wins from their remaining games. It means that we need to win 15 - half our remaining games. And that's if the damage is another 6.

And I look at Saturday and frankly - although the last minute winner was brilliant - we certainly did not really deserve that win. MK Dons are one down there with us and didn't look so far off us if we're honest that we could win double the games they will.

Just how I see it. Its not completely impossible and that is huge testament to new owners, management and players. But I'd say its one in a thousand type odds still.

We wouldn't need 7 more wins. You get points for drawing too, and a side that picks up 5 or 6 more wins than another is also likely to be losing fewer.

I also think assuming 8 wins for others is typically Eeyore. I don't for a second accept it's a given all teams will suddenly pick up, they're shit for a reason. I'm sure a few (if they haven't already) will roll the dice manager wise but it's not like any of them are going to have budgets to seriously improve.

Plus there's Lincoln, essentially a non-league team who've punched above their weight with a management team now departed. They have 18 from 17 games, but after starting with 3 wins, only 9 points from 14 games, and 6 from the last 11.

As I think DSB has already said, this looks like being a historically torrid division. 6 or fewer deducted I think I back us. Anything up to 12 or 15 and I won't quite give up hope.

Our squad is top 6 IMO. Since 1 Sept we've had to get a whole squad up to speed, suffered plenty of injuries, and still running at 1.33ppg, and 7 of the 9 teams we've played have been in the top 10 (and another is pre-season 2nd favs Pompey).

It's still on.
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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by nelson66 » Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:49 pm

We are staying up I say we are staying up !!!
The Whites Are Going Up 2021 :pissed: :grin:

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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by officer_dibble » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:29 pm

Main thing is we continue to have a right feck* go. Was good sat. Everyone staying behind clapping and cheering the team off. Feels like a while since that happened.

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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:15 am

Not a bad month, really.
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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by TANGODANCER » Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:22 am

Once we climb a bit further "the slings and arrows of noble fortune" will become the national anthem of a few nervous opposition managers. Watch it happen.. :)
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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:20 pm

Spurious statistic, extravagant extpolation etc, but here's how the league table would work if every team continued its form since (and including) Hill's first game. And yes, it includes the (current) 12-point deduction.
Hill minus 12.png
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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by Dave Sutton's barnet » Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:10 pm

(slightly edited the below quote for facts we now know)
Dave Sutton's barnet wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:41 pm
nicholaldo wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:58 pm
Our next five league fixtures:

Sat 16/11 MK Dons (H)
Sat 23/11 Accrington Stanley (A)
Sat 7/12 AFC Wimbledon (H)
Sat 14/12 Peterborough United (A)
Sat 21/12 Southend United (H)
...with IMO the strong possibility of adding Lincoln back into that. The Imps tweeted on Friday that the clubs are actively discussing when to hold the rematch, and it looks to me to be in about a month's time. I've added the dates to your fixtures for ease...

At the moment it can't be:
• Wed 20/11 - held for FA Cup 1st Round replays - unless we both win or lose and they decide effectively nine days' notice is enough
• Tue 3/12 – the midweek scheduled for the first EFL Trophy knockout round.
• Tue 10/12 – FA Cup 2nd Round replays - but as with First Round, if we're both clear either way, then maybe

but it could be:
• Tue 26/11 (seems free to me)
• Sat 29/11 (FA Cup 2nd Round weekend - IF we both lose in FA1)
• Tue 10/12 (IF we both don't have FA2 replays)
Just to say that Burton and Doncaster both won their FA Cup replays last night, so we won't be playing them a week on Saturday (when we now have a free weekend because we went out of the FA Cup). Lincoln's replay, home to Ipswich, is tonight: don't be astounded, if they lose, to hear a quick announcement that we've rescheduled our rained-off game for that Saturday. Certainly if I were Keith I'd be trying to play them ASAP, while they're on a run of being dogshit. Equally, Appleton might want to wait awhile (and possibly reduce the size of support coming over the Pennines for an evening game), but I don't know what the arbitration is if one side drags its feet rearranging for non-logistical reasons. We could ask the "fixture arrangers" at the EFL, we might get a response by the time of the Paris Olympics :roll:

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Re: League One 2019/20

Post by TonyDomingos » Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:54 pm

I saw Bristol Rovers scrape a very fortunate win in their cup replay at Bromley last night. If they are 5th in DSB's "spurious stats^ table above, then we should be top. They looked no more than a slightly-better-than-average National League side.
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