League One, 2022/23

[knobpolisher]

Peterborough have to match our record AND win 3 more games just to tie our points. Wycombe have to beat our record AND win two more games to catch us.

I'm not seeing the need to panic.

Exactly this any good Manager will say they would rather have points in the bag than games in hand. We do of course play Peterborough and Wycombe in the next three weeks or so.

It's always strange that as supporters we expect two things
1. Chasing teams with games in hand will always win those games.
2. When we are chasing with games in hand we will always expect to drop points.

Classic optimist/pessimist stuff.
Anyway we'll be alreet

[Prufrock]

Plus we've only got 2 of the top 6 left to play. Always tempting to assume everyone will win games in have wherever you are, but form to date suggests that's unlikely.

Winning the play offs even if we got is there of course, quite obviously sub 50/50!

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

Still got to travel to 3 of the top 8 and only host 1. So we need that away form to pick up slightly. We've got the third-most points at home but only the 6th-most away.

Just as a subjective differentiator, we have 31pts from home games - same as Sheff Wed, although we've played a game more. We have 19pts from 13 away games; Wednesday have a division-topping 27 from 13 - more than 2ppg on the road, which is proper tip-of-the-hat stuff.

[truewhite15]

Put it another way. Would you switch places with any of the clubs currently below us with games in hand? I wouldn't.

[GhostoftheBok]

We now look like a Championship side, physically,

We have pace, power and energy in key areas, we're in form and we've invested in our misfiring forward line.

I don't see any reason to be downcast. We'll have bad results, it's just the nature of things; but we should be looking up the table and not down it. The aim, 100%, should be promotion and a cup. It's not some kind of catastrophe if we end up with neither, but that is a realistic aim for us. Last season it was wing and prayer stuff, but might as well try. This season it can absolutely be done.

For me, the money is still on going up next season automatically; but let's go at it hell for leather.

First step is Saturday. If we have an off day, or they play their game of the season, we can lose it; but if we play well we will batter them.

[TANGODANCER]

It's come to the time of season where I start to follow our competitor's results more intently. Last night saw a bad one from our perspective, with Barnsley hanging on to win away at Oxford and move within four points with us, and still with three games in hand.

I think we've probably got about a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs from our current position. Every dropped point from here on in is going to matter.

This. ^^^

Status Quo, the reality. Musically, it's not so much "Margarita Time" as "Driftin Away" time unless we, or others do something spectacular. Barnsley with three in hand and just 4 points adrift, stand a bit better than 50/50 chance of finishing above us, as do Derby with two in hand and on equal points. Nothing is ever set in stone at this stage, but even draws are risky options and .As I've said before, the wolves all want to dance with us and wall-flowers we ain't, so we do the best we can and hope fortune smiles on us. Taking anything for granted right now is looking for dynamite with a lit candle...Oh...

'Tain't What You Do , It's the Way That You Do It, that's what gets results)"

[GhostoftheBok]

Still got to travel to 3 of the top 8 and only host 1. So we need that away form to pick up slightly. We've got the third-most points at home but only the 6th-most away.

Just as a subjective differentiator, we have 31pts from home games - same as Sheff Wed, although we've played a game more. We have 19pts from 13 away games; Wednesday have a division-topping 27 from 13 - more than 2ppg on the road, which is proper tip-of-the-hat stuff.

We have really tough away fixtures and a home pitch that's falling to bits. Those are our handicaps going forward. It's also why I think the hardest part for this side might be making it to Wembley, rather than winning at Wembley. I'd fancy this team against almost anyone on that pitch.

As we were talking about yesterday, there's more directness to us now, which allows us to mitigate some of those issues; but it's not clunky. We still want to be able to play those 6-12 yard balls through the midfield to achieve vertical movement, but one of the reasons we were so pedestrian at times was that we were not taking advantage of the range of passing some of our players offer.

We have multiple ways to beat teams now and, as Insane says, that more direct ball will be on into those strong lads up top now - if needed. It won't be Plan A, but it also wouldn't be the first time - first goal against Pompey springs to mind and there are others.

If teams want to try and pin us after the pivot, we have the range to go diagonally and force the shift.

If teams want to press us we can bypass the press into a unit up top.

If they sit back we now have dribblers and ingenuity.

If they want to go toe-to-toe I'll back our technical level and work rate against most sides.

If they want to step up we now have plenty of pace in behind and the passing to find it.

Success is always hard, but we can do it.

[BWFC_Insane]

Put it another way. Would you switch places with any of the clubs currently below us with games in hand? I wouldn't.

I wouldn't. Barnsley can catch us. But we'd still be 6th. And I think we're better than Barnsley now - we weren't earlier in the season.

[jmjhb]

We have a 64.6% chance of making the playoffs according to this:

http://www.probs4.club/p4cLge/lge1

Some teams will have a huge fixture pileup and still have to play midweek-Sat about 5 weeks in a row. We on the other hand will be a bit better rested.

[knobpolisher]

Just idly going through the fixtures and notice we don't play from 17th March until 7th April, am I missing something?

[GhostoftheBok]

Just idly going through the fixtures and notice we don't play from 17th March until 7th April, am I missing something?

Wembley, baby!

[knobpolisher]

Nope don't get that , we're not yet at Wembley but may very well be of course but that's a three week break. We miss two complete weekends

[GhostoftheBok]

Nope don't get that , we're not yet at Wembley but may very well be of course but that's a three week break. We miss two complete weekends

We are ahead of most teams in games played, so that'll be where they've scheduled us to get back in line for the run in, with the complication that they need to keep that second weekend free in case.

So Accy, who have played 4 fewer than us, play on the 25th, but also then don't play until the 7th in case they go through. They then have exactly the same last 8 fixture dates. Saturday Tuesday for a month.

[Prufrock]

Plymouth at home was going to be the 24th March but we brought it forward to Jan as likely one or both of us will have internationals away.

1st April was going to be Accy but one of us will be in the final the day after so that's off too.

[knobpolisher]

Ta for those replies, should we not make it to Wembley I guess the break of 3 weeks could be a good thing at that stage of the season. At least it would be a silver lining on a non Wembley cloud.

[BWFC_Insane]

Ta for those replies, should we not make it to Wembley I guess the break of 3 weeks could be a good thing at that stage of the season. At least it would be a silver lining on a non Wembley cloud.

I'd say the last thing you want is 3 weeks off then. It disrupts rhythm and everything. Not a great schedule really. Best make sure we get a Wembley date in there (though I fear the fate of Accrington weighs heavy).

[TANGODANCER]

Ta for those replies, should we not make it to Wembley I guess the break of 3 weeks could be a good thing at that stage of the season. At least it would be a silver lining on a non Wembley cloud.

I'd say the last thing you want is 3 weeks off then. It disrupts rhythm and everything. Not a great schedule really. Best make sure we get a Wembley date in there (though I fear the fate of Accrington weighs heavy).

A rare occurrence indeed, but I agree with Insaney here. "Actions speak louder than words" applies here, and all the talk and planning in the world is of less value than the physical challenge of reality. "Best laid plans"..etc.... "Proof of the pudding" "Better to have played (loved) and lost than never played (loved) at all"....all are quoted words, but wise ones and so very true.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

About this time of year, with the January window done, I start wondering what happens if teams maintain recent form to the end of the season. Quick bit of spreadsheet formula management, update the numbers and we can see how things might pan out if - it's always if - things continue to the end of the season, using form tables for the last 6, 8, 10 & 12 games and adding the points they'd pick up at that pace to their existing real-world totals.

Note: For now, I've done the maths for the top nine teams, down to Shrewsbury, 6pts clear of 10th-placed Pompey.

It's been clear to anyone with eyes that Wednesday and Derby have been the division's form teams for months now. So it's doubly unfortunate for longtime top two Plymouth and Ipswich that they themselves have simultaneously slumped - really quite badly in Ipswich's case.

Dropping two more points at dropzone dwellers Cambridge means the big-spending Tractor Boys have only gathered 7 in their last 6 games. If they continue that form to the end of the season they won't even make 75 points and will finish bottom of the 9. It's also bad news for Ipswich if they continue their last-8 and last-10 form (1.17 and 1.25ppg respectively). Neither would be enough to make the play-offs. Last-12 form would just about see them scrape in.

Meanwhile Wednesday and Derby - who are both 100% over the last 6 - would end up with an eye-watering 115 and 107 pts respectively. But whether we go last 6, 8, 10 or 12, those two are on course to finish 1st and 2nd, with Plymouth 3rd in all four scenarios.

As for us, we're on course for around 87pts and 4th place on last-6, last-8 and last-10 form; last-12 is slightly worse, pointing at 82pts and 5th. But it's open behind us. Shrewsbury would be in the play-offs on last-6 and last-10 form; Barnsley on last-8, last-10 and last-12; Posh on last-6, Wycombe on last-8.

As Ghost said on the Cheltenham match thread, we'll get the opportunity to keep ourselves clear of that chasing pack. What's interesting me more right now is the fluctuating possibilities of the four above us. If Wednesday and Derby continue to steamroller, how does it affect the longterm leaders? Ipswich are already on a six-week wobble; might Plymouth – especially without superkeeper Cooper, who has a scan next week on the knee injury that saw him subbed off in today's crucial defeat at Hillsborough – go the same way?
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[GhostoftheBok]

One of the spanners in the works is that Posh look much improved under Ferguson (as usual when he starts off there). If they beat us their momentum may well be a real threat. It's not a must win game by any stretch, but it's our most important game of the season thus far.

Obviously a "last three" model would be massively overweighted in Posh's favour, but they look like being closer to their last 6 than last 12 selves.

[Dave Sutton's barnet]

One of the spanners in the works is that Posh look much improved under Ferguson (as usual when he starts off there). If they beat us their momentum may well be a real threat. It's not a must win game by any stretch, but it's our most important game of the season thus far.

Obviously a "last three" model would be massively overweighted in Posh's favour, but they look like being closer to their last 6 than last 12 selves.

Yeah, ones to watch. The spreadsheet’s set up now, so I’ll try to update it every fortnight or so.