The Politics Thread

[mrkint]

don't understand this at all.

[thebish]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21157822

Bloody hell.

why the shock?? it's been trailed for weeks... and - it's ages off in the long grass - and qualified by the idea that he will have succeeded in a major renegotiation of our position in europe beforehand...

it's just a tactic to see off UKIP - he won't deliver on it as he can always claim he never got the hoped-for renegotiation...

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

Yeah, it's been trailed for a long time, but it's still a big moment to hear a UK Prime Minister speak in those terms.

[thebish]

Yeah, it's been trailed for a long time, but it's still a big moment to hear a UK Prime Minister speak in those terms.

do you think he means it?

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

Yeah, it's been trailed for a long time, but it's still a big moment to hear a UK Prime Minister speak in those terms.

do you think he means it?

I don't know... I doubt he really expects a Conservative majority next time out, for one thing.

[thebish]

Yeah, it's been trailed for a long time, but it's still a big moment to hear a UK Prime Minister speak in those terms.

do you think he means it?

I don't know... I doubt he really expects a Conservative majority next time out, for one thing.

you think that's what he's banking on? do you think he'd follow through if they did achieve a majority? (and with UKIP's flush busted - they have a slightly better shot at it...)

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

Yeah, it's been trailed for a long time, but it's still a big moment to hear a UK Prime Minister speak in those terms.

do you think he means it?

I don't know... I doubt he really expects a Conservative majority next time out, for one thing.

you think that's what he's banking on? do you think he'd follow through if they did achieve a majority? (and with UKIP's flush busted - they have a slightly better shot at it...)

I don't know what he's banking on, but the 'promise' was contingent on a Conservative majority.

If he gets a majority, I don't see how he has any choice but to follow through with it now.

[mrkint]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21157822

Bloody hell.

why the shock?? it's been trailed for weeks... and - it's ages off in the long grass - and qualified by the idea that he will have succeeded in a major renegotiation of our position in europe beforehand...

it's just a tactic to see off UKIP - he won't deliver on it as he can always claim he never got the hoped-for renegotiation...

Then surely he's stitching himself up. He wants to renegotiate then put it to a referendum...but if the renegotiation doesn't occur (which implies he thinks Britain is worse off) he won't put it to vote? He'll be torn apart for that. That will only increase pressure for a referendum.

The whole thing just seems rather messy and ill-thought. In the short term, what will happen -allow the conservatives to steal votes from UKIP? Polls have shown UKIP voters care more about immigration than EU membership. Europe is in a flux as it is. Why not wait to see what the terrain is like once we get over the hill? Instead, we've got a PM promising a new deal on Europe (when, in all fairness, we have a pretty decent one as it is), we've pissed off our main export and import market in the EU and, should this renegotiation Cameron sees vital comes into fruition, he's going to essentially put it to a fecking coin-flip.

I just can't rationalise it, that's the annoying thing.

[Montreal Wanderer]

Yeah, it's been trailed for a long time, but it's still a big moment to hear a UK Prime Minister speak in those terms.

You and bish both used the word 'trailed' and I don't really understand what it means. I would understand 'trialed' better in the sense of floated as a trial balloon. Does it mean that the idea has been mooted for some time to get a general reaction before the PM actually says anything?

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

Yeah, it's been trailed for a long time, but it's still a big moment to hear a UK Prime Minister speak in those terms.

You and bish both used the word 'trailed' and I don't really understand what it means. I would understand 'trialed' better in the sense of floated as a trial balloon. Does it mean that the idea has been mooted for some time to get a general reaction before the PM actually says anything?

Yes. Perhaps it's a British idiom.

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

we've pissed off our main export and import market in the EU

How do you 'piss off' a market?

As I keep saying to the LK, the main thing the EU gets from us in return for giving us access to its market is access to our market.

I don't see that the UK and the EU not having reciprocal access to each other's markets is likely, whatever eventually comes to pass.

[mrkint]

Stand on its roof and let loose, I suppose.

Indeed, I was just using that to illustrate a point of how closely we are intertwined with them. and similarly the main thing we get from them is access to their market.

All just seems a bit short term gain taking precedent over long term interests. Though I dunno i haven't debated politics in a while so i could be getting rusty.

And what is Cameron hoping to actually achieve, tangibly, with the renegotiation? I can't seem to find anything

[thebish]

And what is Cameron hoping to actually achieve, tangibly, with the renegotiation? I can't seem to find anything

I doubt he'll ever make that crystal clear - if he did, then after the renegotiation he would have to have delivered something specific in order to proclaim his renegotiation a triumph for Britain... if he is vague about it - then just about any outcome to this renegotiation can be spun as a triumph given that none of us (with the exception of LK and Mummy) have the faintest idea how any of it works!

listening to the response from some of our EU partners today - they seem likely to be polite but dismissive... they are characterising Cameron's approach as "cherry-picking" (the Germans) and "a-la-carte Europe" (the french)...

[mrkint]

I'm just puzzled as to why say this now, when we have the negotiations coming up. By all means declare intentions for a referendum after the negotiation, but doing it before? It's bloody stupid.

[thebish]

I'm just puzzled as to why say this now, when we have the negotiations coming up. By all means declare intentions for a referendum after the negotiation, but doing it before? It's bloody stupid.

basically - here's why...

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

I'm just puzzled as to why say this now, when we have the negotiations coming up. By all means declare intentions for a referendum after the negotiation, but doing it before? It's bloody stupid.

To strengthen our hand by suggesting that we really might leave if we don't get what we want?

[thebish]

I'm just puzzled as to why say this now, when we have the negotiations coming up. By all means declare intentions for a referendum after the negotiation, but doing it before? It's bloody stupid.

To strengthen our hand by suggesting that we really might leave if we don't get what we want?

how scared are the rest of Europe by that threat?

he must have considered the balance of outcomes - but I suspect he has opened a can of worms in his own party as backbenchers demand a shopping list of specific concessions... and pundits demand to know where his "red lines" are and under what circumstances (if any) he would campaign for us to leave Europe... of course he won't answer these questions - but their repetition could make him look less decisive than he intends depending on how he handles it..

of course - labour have already made a bit of a stuff up in their response - and the ball is very much in their court...

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

I'm just puzzled as to why say this now, when we have the negotiations coming up. By all means declare intentions for a referendum after the negotiation, but doing it before? It's bloody stupid.

To strengthen our hand by suggesting that we really might leave if we don't get what we want?

how scared are the rest of Europe by that threat?

I have no idea... but I do know that they don't really want us out.

[Prufrock]

I think it'll probably work out all right. I don't like probably though. As Miliband said, putting party politics before the national interest.

[mummywhycantieatcrayons]

I think it'll probably work out all right. I don't like probably though. As Miliband said, putting party politics before the national interest.

Ah, so that will be why Miliband has made a clear statement ruling out an EU referendum in the future?